I have a new column this week on OnlySky. It’s about how, after four years of war with Russia, Ukraine is turning the tide.
In 2022, at the beginning of Russia’s all-out invasion, Ukraine was fighting for its survival. Western weapons allowed it to stymie the Russian advance, at which point the war bogged down into WW1-style trench warfare. Russia willingly sacrificed enormous numbers of soldiers for minimal territorial gains, but Ukraine was unable to recapture most of the territory they’d lost.
This was the status quo for years. But in the last few months, even without American aid, Ukraine has been slowly gaining the initiative. Rapid innovation in drone technology has allowed them to overcome Russia’s air defenses, leading to a steady tempo of strikes on oil refineries and other strategic targets, as well as the embarrassing spectacle of Ukrainian drones attacking Moscow. How long can Russia sustain this punishment before their economy collapses?
Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but members of OnlySky also get special benefits, like a subscriber newsletter:
At the beginning of the invasion, Vladimir Putin believed he’d conquer Ukraine in just three days. Russian soldiers were so confident of meeting no resistance, they packed their dress uniforms for a triumphal march through the streets of Kyiv.
It wasn’t just Russians who held this opinion. Many American conservatives counseled Ukraine to surrender because they argued that Russia was invincible, Ukraine had no hope of victory, and the sooner they capitulated, the easier it would go for them.
In May 2026, four years later, Russian refineries are going up in flames and Ukrainian attack drones are buzzing over Moscow.
How the tables have turned.
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