New on OnlySky: AI will be the death of the internet

I have a new column today on OnlySky. It’s about a problem we’re only beginning to glimpse that could spell the death of the internet as we know it.

From social media to e-commerce to journalism, the internet is built on the basis of the attention economy. More users equates to more views, more ad clicks, more sales, and more profit. Entire industries are founded on this model.

But AI chatbots have become scarily good at imitating people, and unscrupulous actors are already using them for everything from phony reviews to coordinated propaganda campaigns. Genuine humans are at risk of being drowned out by endless zombie hordes of bots. How will this affect the assumptions that the internet is built on? What happens when there are no humans left to advertise to?

Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but paid members of OnlySky get some extra perks, like a subscriber-only newsletter. I’m told that now everyone can post comments:

By some estimates, bots already comprise as much as 50% of total internet traffic. And these are still the early days of AI. This problem is only going to get worse. It may not be long before encountering another human being on the net is a rare exception.

The future of the internet is a lifeless wasteland. It’s a zombie funhouse of bots chattering inanely at each other, heedless of whether anyone is listening. It’s an infinite conveyor belt of meaningless words spilling into the void, with no humans in the loop at all.

But it won’t last. It can’t. The same incentives that created this digital Babel will be its downfall.

Continue reading on OnlySky…

Things I still believe

The years ahead are going to be a time of trials for us. We’re all going to face pressure to compromise our values: to keep our heads down, to avert our gazes, to play along, to profess loyalty, to collaborate.

For when that temptation is strongest, I’m writing this now, to remind myself (and you, if it benefits you) of the moral principles we should hold on to, whether the world encourages it or not. When the future looks clouded and uncertain, these values are like a lighthouse on a rocky headland. They’ll see us safely through the darkness of the night and the lash of the storm, and they’ll light the way to better days when the clouds finally clear.

First of all, I believe in kindness. In a world where cruelty is the motivation and the rule, kindness is the essential virtue. It’s a reassertion of the inherent worth and dignity of all human beings. Despite the superficial differences cited to divide us, we’re all alike in the ways that count. Everyone’s life matters. Everyone’s well-being should be protected. Everyone deserves to be safe, happy and free. When life falls short of this goal, we should do what we can to make up for it, helping people in the ways they need.

In a world where laws and institutions are slanted toward the rich and powerful, kindness is a leveling impulse. It reminds us to keep our gazes on the vulnerable, the oppressed, and those who’ve been kept in the shadows. The advocates of hierarchy say it’s right that some people should be on top and others on the bottom; the defenders of bigotry say that some people, by virtue of who they are, are outside the circle of moral concern. Both of them are wrong. Kindness is radical because it refuses these limitations.

Most of all – because I’m sure we’re going to hear this a lot – we should reject the argument that kindness is weak. Nothing could be more wrong. Cruelty is a trait of the fearful and the insecure. It’s the mindset of people who want to keep others down because they believe it’s the only way they can stay on top. Those who help, who are willing to reach down without fear of lowering themselves, prove that they’re the strongest.

At the same time, I believe in justice. Justice means that we should treat people as their actions deserve. It’s the abstract form of the Golden Rule, that enduring moral principle that every society and culture has discovered. Those who do right should be rewarded; those who do wrong should be punished, to give them an incentive to make a better choice next time.

I don’t view kindness and justice as values in opposition to each other, but as two sides of the same coin. Kindness would be meaningless and absurd if it was given in equal portion to oppressor and oppressed. As I’ve written before, I don’t believe in tolerating intolerance. Those who treat others with cruelty, malice, or disregard deserve the same treatment in return, and we shouldn’t feel empathy for them when they’re reaping what they sowed.

This principle applies with particular force to the Americans who supported fascism in this election. Millions of those people, in the coming months and years, are going to be unpleasantly surprised. In fact, the red-state footsoldiers of fascism are likely going to suffer some of the worst repercussions. That too is justice, even if only in a roundabout and approximate sense. We shouldn’t extend sympathy to them when they get what they voted for.

As an essential complement to these moral values, I believe in knowable objective reality. The world exists independently of us, and it’s not inherently shaped or governed by our desires. There are physical laws and material facts that are beyond our power to change. (Among other things: Climate change is real. Vaccines prevent disease. More guns means more violence. Cutting taxes on the rich doesn’t trickle down to the poor.) If we try to ignore them, we’ll wreck disastrously on the rocks of reality.

At the same time, we can learn what those laws are and use them to our benefit. The more we know about how the world works, the greater our power to alter it in accordance with our desires. Truth is a map and a tool for forging the future we want.

Those in power dislike the idea that reality isn’t malleable to their will, so they fight against it. Dictators, strongmen and propagandists all want to bewilder you with a blizzard of bullshit. They want to flood the public square with lies until the truth is drowned out. They want you to believe that objective truth is nonexistent, so you might as well believe what you’re told without asking questions.

But a lie is still a lie and a truth is still a truth, even if all the powers of the world are pushing you to believe otherwise. Holding to this principle is a vital defense against unjust power.

These three values – kindness, justice, empiricism – are the stable three-legged stool of my secular humanist philosophy. All are equally necessary.

Kindness without justice is undeserved charity to the oppressor; without knowledge, it’s as likely to make things worse as it is to make them better. Justice without kindness is mere cruelty, and without knowledge of who’s in the right, it becomes injustice. Knowledge alone, without kindness or justice to channel it to the right ends, can make the world worse instead of better. But when these three are combined, they create a whole that’s greater than the sum of its parts.

Last but not least, I believe in joy. This isn’t a moral value as such, but the savor that makes life worth living. However maddening and cruel the world becomes, we have the power to choose how we react. And our reactions, more than anything else, are what determine whether we’re happy.

If you have the misfortune of knowing a fascist, then you know that their worldview is bleak and bitter. Their every thought is shaped by fear, rage, and revulsion. Their lives are full of pain and suffering, which they accept as inevitable rather than seeking to change. It’s this worldview that they want to export to the rest of us. They only win a final victory if they can make us as miserable as they are. That’s a victory we shouldn’t grant them.

Millions and millions of people who lived in, objectively, more unequal and more brutal times than the present didn’t lose their capacity for joy. They found ways to bring pleasure and meaning and happiness into their lives. We’re far more privileged than them, so why can’t we?

Living with joy, refusing to let go of happiness even in dark times, is a victory all its own. We may not find that in politics for now, but there’s still love, friendship, community, art, music, literature, creativity, and helping one another – all the other ingredients that make life worthwhile. Those values aren’t at risk. We just have to remember that we still have them.

New on OnlySky: Heading into the dark

I have a new column today on OnlySky. You can guess what it’s about.

Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but paid members of OnlySky get some extra perks, like a subscriber-only newsletter. I’m told that now everyone can post comments:

What now, for those of us who care? What should we do in response?

Should we plan on moving to another country? (But what country can truthfully say it’s free of bigotry, conspiracy theorists, cruel and selfish people, or would-be authoritarians? These aren’t American flaws, they’re human flaws.)

Should we go Galt—or whatever the liberal equivalent is called—and withdraw from society to build our own enclave of tolerance, decency and human rights? (But there’s an inconvenient shortage of handy mountain refuges with limitless free energy.)

Should we conclude that if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em? (I get nauseous just contemplating it.)

None of these responses are suitable. As hard as it is, there’s only one thing to do—only one course of action that’s thinkable.

Continue reading on OnlySky…

Living in the middle of hope and fear

A misty path surrounded by water on both sides

I’ll say this first of all: I’m not making any predictions about this election. I don’t know what’s going to happen. I don’t think anyone does.

Polls

It seems to me that polls aren’t as trustworthy as they once were. This may be because most people have ditched landlines and only use cell phones, which aren’t tied to a particular place. That makes it harder to survey voters in a specific state or district. On top of that, rampant spam and scams mean that many people are unwilling to answer the phone for a stranger. The ones who respond to pollsters may be those who are most want to advance their own views, introducing an element of selection bias.

Also, polls can find out what people are thinking and feeling, but can’t necessarily predict whether they’ll show up to vote. That measure (“likely voters”) is based on guesswork, assumptions, statistical models, and what-happened-last-time inductive reasoning. All of these are factors that may be wrong or may change from one election cycle to another.

And, of course, we shouldn’t discount the possibility of unethical pollsters rigging the numbers on purpose. There’s statistical evidence of herding: pollsters, because they’re afraid of being wrong, are massaging or discarding results in order to better agree with each other. This has the effect of reinforcing conventional wisdom rather than objectively reporting their findings.

Our democracy is split very nearly down the middle, especially in swing states. In this state of rigid partisan polarization, most elections are extremely close. A fraction of a percentage point in turnout, well within the margin of error of any poll, can decide the outcome. Anything that makes one side even just a little bit more motivated can make all the difference.

For these reasons, I’ve come to hate polls. They enable the worst kind of political journalism: the “horserace”, which tells you who’s winning rather than who’s right. It’s lazy hackwork that adds no value to anyone’s life. It’s much like financial journalism, which spends far too much time scrutinizing the random short-term jitters of the stock market, and not enough on economic trends and data that are genuinely useful to know about.

In the long term, polls are useful barometers of demographic and ideological change. But for short-term prediction, they’re almost completely useless. Instead of obsessing over poll numbers, the media should stick to the issues: what promises a candidate is making, whether that candidate has a record of honesty, how likely it is that they’ll be able to keep their promises, and what all that means for average citizens.

Vibes

In the absence of reliable polling data, people turn to vibes. We fix on small clues and guess that they’re indicative of larger patterns – like trying to extrapolate the forest from the leaves scattered around your feet.

If you look at things one way, you can see reasons why Donald Trump will win: voter anger over high prices and immigration, RFK as a third-party spoiler, an uninformed and apathetic citizenry that’s all too willing to believe lies, media bias toward conservatives, billionaire dark money and Russian misinformation farms, far too many racists and sexists who only support white men, the undemocratic tilt of the electoral college, conservatives in positions of power who are ready and eager to steal the election… the list goes on.

If you look at things another way, you can see reasons why Kamala Harris will win: voter anger over high inequality and Project 2025, RFK as a third-party spoiler, the growing secular voting bloc, women enraged by abortion bans, a significant fraction of Republican voters repelled by Trump’s sleaze, independents turned off by his old age and criminality, people of color turned off by his flagrant racism, Democratic outperformance in the last cycle indicative of a highly motivated base… the list goes on.

Which one is the more accurate guide? Which set of signs should we believe?

There’s no way to know. Especially since 2016, I’ve come to realize that predicting the future is impossible, so I try to spend as little time and mental energy as possible on it.

Human nature

In some respects, this goes against human nature. Humans are obsessive future predictors: it’s our evolutionary legacy, our chief survival strategy, our biggest asset as a species. Our brains are constantly guessing what might happen next, and using that to inform our decisions in the present. But when we dwell on outcomes that are beyond the power of a single individual to change, it becomes an endless loop of rumination: unproductive at best, actively harmful at worst.

As I’ve noted, conservatives are the party of toxic optimism. They’re recklessly overconfident, whatever their actual chances. That’s what you’d expect from a party run by religious fundamentalists who believe God is on their side. Blind faith is the supreme virtue, and admitting to any doubt is ferociously discouraged and will get you cast out.

Progressives have the opposite problem. We’re excessively pessimistic, often more so than the facts support. We’re overly susceptible to doom and gloom and catastrophizing. After bad headlines, I often find social media becomes unbearable for a few days, as people I follow engage in a collective lamentation.

I try to bear this in mind and calibrate my expectations accordingly. I find it’s most pleasant to live in a state of mild optimism: hoping for the best, but being prepared for the worst.

Going too far in either direction will lead you into disaster. If you’re overly optimistic and you lose, then the emotional blow will be that much more severe and damaging, because you weren’t expecting it. On the other hand, if you’re excessively pessimistic, then you’ll inflict potentially unnecessary suffering on yourself by fretting about an outcome that might never happen. It’s like paying interest on a loan you haven’t taken out yet.

For the sake of my own mental tranquility, I try to stay in that middle ground between hope and fear. That’s not to say it’s easy. It’s like standing on a narrow precipice with steep valleys falling away on either side. Any fleeting sentiment, any piece of news good or bad, has a tendency to push me in one direction or the other. It takes effort to maintain my equilibrium, but it pays dividends in peace of mind. No one could live in this borderland of uncertainty forever, but it’s a temporary state. One way or the other, we’ll know soon enough.

New on OnlySky: How selecting for Harvard in utero could go sideways

I have a new column today on OnlySky. It’s about the prospect of genetic technology creating a new caste system, and what, if anything, we can do about it.

It’s easy to sequence the DNA of embryos conceived through IVF. We can use that technology to screen out the ones carrying genes for devastating disorders, which no one could object to.

But what happens when we don’t stop there, and start selecting for embryos carrying the genes that parents want? In a world of capitalism and rampant inequality, it’s inevitable that people will want to give their offspring every possible leg up. What happens when the rich and the privileged start creating custom-tailored children, selecting the genes that make them the tallest, the most handsome or the most intelligent? Should we embrace this brave new world of eugenics, or is this a Pandora’s box we don’t dare open?

Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but paid members of OnlySky get some extra perks, like a subscriber-only newsletter and the ability to post comments.

An American startup, Heliospect Genomics, charges prospective parents as much as $50,000 to screen embryos for desirable genetic traits, especially intelligence. According to undercover footage, they claim they can help parents select the embryos genetically predestined to be the smartest. And if Heliospect’s founders are to be believed, the first children selected through their screening process have already been born or will soon be.

Naturally, this is an opportunity available only to the wealthy. Heliospect only does the genetic screening; it doesn’t help create the embryos. Those have to be obtained through IVF, which costs tens of thousands to start with, on top of whatever Heliospect charges.

We don’t need to imagine the dystopias that might spring from this. Hollywood has already depicted sci-fi worlds with a genetic caste system, where the elite modify their offspring to be superior while the rest of us are an oppressed underclass. We’re barreling toward that future in reality, which is a terrifying prospect.

Continue reading on OnlySky…

My blog archives are back up, at last

My back catalogue of blog writing used to be hosted on OnlySky, until it shut down earlier this year. For a while, my archives had no home. I’m happy to report that situation has been rectified.

You can now find all my older writing on my personal website, daylightatheism.org, which I intend to keep online forever. It’s very simple and bare-bones at the moment, more a holding area than anything else. I’d like to improve it over time, adding features and making it look spiffier.

But the important stuff is there. It has my entire archive, including all my blog posts back to when I started writing regularly in 2006 (!). It encompasses the eras when I wrote for Big Think (2011-2012), Patheos (2013-2021), and the first iteration of OnlySky (2022-2023). There are index pages organized by year, so to browse the archives for, for example, 2019, you can do:

http://www.daylightatheism.org/2019/

This archive is complete through March 2024. All my posts since then are on Freethought Blogs.

Compiling this was an exercise in personal archaeology. Unlike people who are wedded to a dogmatic worldview, I don’t believe changing your mind is a bad thing. As is proper for a rationalist, I strive to always be open to new evidence, and to be amenable to persuasion when I’m presented with a good argument.

As a consequence, my views have evolved over time. Not about everything – I’m as fierce an atheist as I ever was – but about some other subjects, my views have evolved. For instance, I’ve become more skeptical of capitalism as time goes by. I also see a lot more complexity and nuance in defining sex and gender than I used to.

Because of this, a few of these posts now feel outdated or obsolete to me. But I hope that the majority still hold up and still represent what I believe. As for the handful that don’t, I’m leaving them as is. I’m not editing or deleting them, in the interests of honesty and transparency (and, frankly, because it’d be too much work to go over every one with a fine-tooth comb).

Although I haven’t altered the content, I’ve done my best to clean and tidy it up. I’ve updated the links to be internally consistent, so posts from different eras that link to each other all go to this site and not to Patheos or OnlySky versions that no longer exist. Despite my best efforts, there are probably still some errors and omissions. If you’re perusing it and you come across anything that’s missing or broken, let me know.

One of my great regrets is that I couldn’t bring along the comments. I’ve learned a lot from my commenters over the years, even some of the ones that criticized me. Some of my older posts, especially the Atlas Shrugged series, had truly excellent discussions I wish I could have preserved, but I wasn’t able to. That’s one of the biggest flaws of commenting systems like Disqus: your data is held captive by a third party, you can’t download it if you go elsewhere. It goes to show the benefits of open-source interoperability over capitalist walled gardens.

New on OnlySky: Glimpses of the solarpunk future

I have a new column today on OnlySky. It’s about a better world that’s coming, and that may not be as far off as you’d guess. The technologies we need to create this world aren’t sci-fi; they all already exist. They just need to be put together in a single package. When they do, civilization is going to be radically transformed.

In the near future, ultra-cheap renewable energy is going to drive out expensive, polluting fossil fuel. Advanced agricultural robotics will take over the jobs that once required grueling human labor. Automated manufacturing will end sweatshops and allow every community to make the things it needs for itself. Electric mass transit and self-driving cars will bring about the end of car culture and suburban sprawl. When you put all these pieces together, what does the completed jigsaw look like?

Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but paid members of OnlySky get some extra perks, like a subscriber-only newsletter and the ability to post comments.

At the top of the list is solar power. Solar (and renewable energy in general) has two crucial traits: it’s incredibly cheap—now far cheaper than fossil fuel—and it’s available everywhere, which makes it inherently decentralized. These facts point to a radically different future than the world we’re used to, where oil, gas and coal have to be transported over long distances from where they’re dug up to where they’re burned.

There are other transformative technologies in the pipeline as well. When you combine them with abundant clean energy, you can glimpse one possible future, like catching sight of a distant valley through a gap in the clouds. Call this possibility the solarpunk future, after the name coined by literary and artistic dreamers.

Continue reading on OnlySky…

Sex and gender are constellations

Bright stars in a night sky

My recent post on Richard Dawkins versus the science of sex and gender sparked a conversation in the comments, so I wanted to explore the subject in more detail.

For purposes of this post, let’s say that sex consists of the biological traits that relate to reproduction and childbearing, and that gender is the social roles we stack on top of that: things like what clothes you wear, what emotions you’re expected to express, what roles you’re expected to perform at home, in the workplace and in society in general.

Many people, including Dawkins, believe sex and gender are a straightforward binary. You’re either male or female, a man or a woman, end of story.

But if that were the case, it should be easy to come up with a rule that tells you which sex a person is. However, that turns out to be not nearly so simple. The more you look, the more you find that any such rule is fraught with complications, exceptions and judgment calls. No matter the criteria, there are cases that don’t fit neatly on either side of the line.

Genetics. The first place to look for an A-or-B rule is the genes. If you have XY chromosomes, you’re male; if you have XX, you’re female. Nothing could be simpler than that. Except it’s not so simple.

The “master” gene on the Y chromosome is called SRY. When present, it switches the fetus to the male development path – usually. But not always. Mutations in SRY can result in Swyer syndrome, a person who has XY chromosomes but a biologically female body.

People with Swyer syndrome are usually infertile, but not always. In one remarkable case, a woman with XY chromosomes got pregnant and gave birth… to a daughter who was also XY.

Even a functional SRY gene doesn’t guarantee a male body. A different group of mutations result in androgen insensitivity syndrome, in which cells fail to respond to the signal of SRY. A person with this condition always has testes (but they may be internal, so this may not be obvious), but in other respects, their bodies can be intersex or physiologically female.

It can happen the other way, too. The X and Y sex chromosomes are usually exempt from swapping of genetic material during meiosis, but not always. On occasion, SRY moves from the Y chromosome to the X. This results in XX male syndrome: a person with XX chromosomes and a biologically male body.

Thus, knowing a person’s chromosomes doesn’t necessarily tell you what sex they are. What else can we try?

Gametes. Another frequently heard suggestion is to determine sex on the basis of gametes. This has the advantage of having, seemingly, only two options. If your body produces eggs, you’re female; if sperm, you’re male. Nothing could be simpler than that!

However, this definition has some flaws. To name the most obvious, what sex are you if your body produces neither?

People with Klinefelter syndrome (XXY) have biologically male bodies, but smaller testicles that often produce no sperm. Are they male or not?

The female equivalent is Turner syndrome (XO). Like Klinefelter syndrome, people with this condition have biologically female bodies, but often lack functional ovaries. People with Swyer syndrome, mentioned above, also usually have nonfunctional “streak gonads” that don’t produce gametes.

That’s not even to mention people who’ve had testes or ovaries surgically removed. Using this as the sole definition would suggest that, if a person’s body is incapable of producing gametes, there’s no way to tell what sex they are. Obviously, this is absurd.

Anatomy. If genetics and gametes don’t yield a bright-line rule, the next place to look is a person’s genitals. A male has a penis and testicles; a woman has a clitoris, uterus and ovaries. Nothing could be simpler than that… except, again, it’s not so simple.

Male and female genitals develop from the same primordial structures in the fetus. Due to hormonal irregularities, some people are born with atypical genitalia that aren’t exactly one or the other. They may have genitals that resemble either a small penis or a large clitoris, or a partially fused labia similar to a scrotum. What should the rule be for people with these intersex conditions?

In days past, doctors often took it upon themselves to “fix” this “problem” with plastic surgery, assigning the infant to one sex or another before they were old enough to voice an opinion on the matter. Many of those people grew up to resent what had been done to them without their consent, and it’s now widely considered a human-rights violation.

Even beyond these cases, it’s easy to see why sex shouldn’t be defined solely on the basis of genitals. If a man lost his penis and testicles in a traumatic accident (say, a soldier who stepped on a land mine)… or if a woman had a full hysterectomy (say, to treat uterine cancer)… would they cease to be their former sex because they no longer had the equipment?

There are real-life stories that show it doesn’t work that way. One is the infamous case of David Reimer, who suffered a botched circumcision as an infant. On the advice of a psychologist, he was given sex reassignment surgery and raised as a girl. But he never accepted it, and his life ended tragically because of it.

An even more fascinating case is the Guevedoces: a community in the Dominican Republic where some children are born appearing female, but develop a penis and testicles at the onset of puberty. (How is this possible? Read the linked article for details.)

Hormones. Another popular proposal is that sex is determined by hormones. Men have higher levels of testosterone, while women have higher levels of estrogen.

Recently, this has been the preferred solution for professional sporting bodies. Some have ruled that women with naturally high testosterone levels wouldn’t be allowed to compete unless they take drugs to reduce them.

Whatever you think about the fairness of this rule in elite athletics, it would be infeasible for the general population. As with the other traits, hormone levels fall along a spectrum of variation. One study found that 16.5% of men had testosterone below the normal male reference range, while 13.7% of women had testosterone above the normal female reference range.

As men age, their testosterone levels naturally decline. Other medical conditions, like pituitary gland problems, can also cause low testosterone, as do conditions like Klinefelter syndrome. If a man’s testosterone level falls below the clinical standard, does he cease to be a man and become a woman?

Secondary sex characteristics. Unless you lead an unusual lifestyle, you probably don’t know what genes, genitals or hormone levels your friends have. Instead, we judge by people’s outward appearance, especially musculature, breasts, voice pitch, and facial and body hair.

However, these traits are even more clearly a spectrum. Some women are stronger than some men: for example, I’m never going to lift as much weight as Mary Theisen-Lappen, but I don’t think that makes her a man or me a woman.

Many people are androgynous, not easy to classify at a glance. Some women have hirsutism (excess facial and body hair) while some men have gynecomastia (enlarged breasts). We may consider these conditions unusual, but we don’t believe they make a person a sex other than the one they identify as.

* * *

When these conditions and others are taken into account, it’s virtually impossible to come up with an unambiguous rule that defines what sex someone is. You either have to resort to “I know it when I see it” vagueness, or write a rule that classifies some people as what seems clearly the wrong sex.

You might say that intersex conditions are rare anomalies, so we shouldn’t allow them to overturn an otherwise useful rule. It’s true that they’re rare, but that doesn’t make them irrelevant. No good scientist would say, “There are some exceptions my theory can’t explain, but those probably aren’t important, so I’m just going to ignore them.”

On the contrary: scientists know that anomalies are valuable, precisely because they show the incompleteness of our current models and point the way to a better understanding. Transitional fossils are rare, but that doesn’t mean they should be disregarded. Rare or not, they show that evolution is true and the presumed discontinuity of species is false. Just the same way, intersex conditions show that sex is more a spectrum than a binary.

I certainly don’t consider myself an expert on this topic. I’ve been learning a lot about it, especially in the last few years. My views may change further, but here’s where I’m at now: I believe that sex and gender are constellations.

What do I mean by that?

A constellation is a group of stars that form an image in the sky. In one sense, constellations are real: the individual stars that make them up are obviously real, and astronomers can agree on which stars belong to which constellations. They’re stable patterns whose boundaries are widely agreed upon and which haven’t changed over the millennia.

In another sense, constellations are arbitrary. They’re artifacts of our imagination; the patterns don’t have an objective existence of their own. We could divide the night sky up into different constellations, and it would work just as well. What’s more, the stars in a constellation are at different distances from Earth and from each other, and they’re all in motion over cosmological time scales. It’s only our vantage point in space and time that makes them appear to go together.

Sex and gender are the same category of thing. The “stars” are the facts on the ground – the biological traits a person either has or lacks and the cultural beliefs and roles a person either accepts or rejects. The “constellations” are the way we group them together, deciding what belongs with what.

But constellations are cultural constructs. There’s nothing sacrosanct about them. If we choose, we can group them in a different way – or we can just accept that our classifications don’t map onto any fundamental division of reality. Rather than insisting that everyone is either 100% male or 100% female, we can accept that some people have some traits that point one way and other traits that point another way. To argue otherwise is the same as demanding to know which constellation a star “really” belongs to.

The sky is full of stars, each one unique and beautiful. We don’t need each and every one to fall into a set of arbitrary boxes for us to appreciate them.

The United Kingdom enters the post-theist age

The Union Jack flag

It’s going to get awkward that the U.K. still uses “God Save the King” as their national anthem:

For the first time in history, the UK now has more atheists than people who believe in the existence of a god, researchers have found.

This eyebrow-raising conclusion comes from Explaining Atheism, a collaborative research project on secularism by several British universities. As researchers put it, the nation is entering its “atheist age“.

Although it’s a right-wing tabloid, the Daily Mail has a surprisingly comprehensive and sympathetic report:

Figures from 2008 showed that 41.8 per cent of Britons believed in God while 35.2 per cent did not.

Within a decade, by 2018, this had reversed, with 35.2 per cent believing and 42.9 per cent not believing.

This project was funded by a grant from the Templeton Foundation, which normally pays scientists to praise religion. The fact that Templeton-backed researchers are reporting this result is a good indicator of its reliability. It fits the criterion of embarrassment.

It also fits the pattern of previous studies, like the one which found the U.K. was up to 25% atheist a few years ago. In 2019, only 1% (!) of young people belonged to the Church of England, and we’re seeing the fruits of that.

The rapid rise of atheism in the United Kingdom, mirroring similar trends in other countries, pours cold water on the claim that humans are genetically hardwired to believe in God. If that were true, we might see different religions rise and fall, but the number of out-and-out atheists would remain statistically insignificant. It would just be the tiny minority of mutants who lacked the god gene.

That’s not what’s happening. Religion is fading, and it’s not being replaced with anything else. This is conclusive evidence that religious belief is a cultural trait, one that can rise or fall like any other. It’s not an immutable part of our genetics, much less a spiritual longing implanted in us by a divine creator.

The Explaining Atheism project isn’t just a demographic survey. It also studied what causes lead people to become atheists, what atheists do believe in if they don’t believe in gods, and their general outlook and how they live their lives. While results like this will be extremely obvious to us, it’s something that many people still don’t know:

The team also discovered that the stereotype of the ‘purposeless unbeliever’ – that atheists lead lives devoid of meaning, morality and purpose – simply isn’t accurate.

Instead, many atheists and agnostics endorse objective moral values, human dignity and rights, and see family and freedom as important for finding meaning in the world, the study showed.

Another thing atheists might have guessed, but that it’s good to get confirmation of, is that religion doesn’t persist because it satisfies deep-seated needs, like assuaging the fear of death, or giving rules and structure to life. Rather, it persists mainly because parents pass it on to their children. This, too, fits with the theory of religion as an arbitrary cultural trait:

Common explanations for why people believe in God or not, such as intelligence, fear of death, or need for structure, have little empirical support.

The strongest influences on belief are parental upbringing and societal expectations regarding belief in God.

As for what this might mean for British politics, I’m not an expert. I’d guess the impact will be limited, since the U.K. doesn’t have a religious right that acts as a cohesive political force in the same way that the U.S. does.

However, there are still official privileges for Christianity enshrined in the British government. (I’m looking at you, bishops in the House of Lords.) As the U.K. becomes a majority atheist state, these archaic measures are ripe for disestablishment.

The U.K. may be leading the pack, but given its cultural similarities to the U.S., this is a herald of what’s coming here too. All the industrialized countries are moving along the same secularization curve, some further ahead, others behind. The religious right has been a more powerful and noxious force in America, but its time is drawing to a close. We can see it coming, and it may not be as far off as you think.

Image credit: geishaboy500, released under CC BY 2.0 license

New on OnlySky: I still want to go to Mars, but not if Elon Musk punches the ticket

I have a new column today on OnlySky. It’s about the feasibility of a Mars settlement… and the trustworthiness of the people currently best known for advocating it.

Mars is the closest place to Earth where human beings could even theoretically live. But, right now, the best-known supporters of establishing a human presence on the red planet are a gang of billionaires who are notorious for their unreliable, failure-prone technology, their long string of broken promises, and their Ayn Randian, libertarian-supremacist views. They’re absolutely not the kind of people anyone should trust to be in control of the oxygen supply.

So if they’re not the ones who should take us to Mars, who is? Or this is even a goal we should pursue at all?

Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column requires membership to read, but you can sign up for free. (Paid members of OnlySky get some extra perks, like a subscriber-only newsletter and the ability to post comments.)

It’s not just Musk. The same goes for all the self-declared rationalists and tech-bro billionaires who think they’re head and shoulders above the common herd. Far too many of them prove to be con artists, like Sam Bankman-Fried, or swollen with lethal hubris, like Stockton Rush, or wannabe mad scientists who believe that rules are for little people, like Marc Andreessen.

None of them are trustworthy. None of them have wisdom to match their wealth or their lofty rhetoric. If we’re going to go to Mars—and, for the record, I do hope we eventually go to Mars—it shouldn’t be the private vanity project of a billionaire. It should be a shared commitment on behalf of all humanity, with only our best representatives selected for the mission.

Continue reading on OnlySky…