That indie game money

If a game is on Steam, it’s possible for a public observer to estimate how much money it made. The thing to look at is the number of reviews. There’s a fairly predictable ratio between the number of sales to the number of Steam reviews, about 30:1. Then you can multiply by the game price (accounting for discounts). Subtract 30% for Steam’s cut (or a smaller cut if the game was profitable enough). And if the game made under $1000, subtract $100 for Steam’s listing fee.

Let’s go through an example. Hollow Knight: Silksong currently has 394,000 reviews. That implies about 12M sales on Steam alone. Each sale is $20, and we’ll assume an average discount of 15%. In total that’s $200M revenue. For such a large game, Steam only takes a 20% cut, leaving the developers with $160M. Now, divide that among three developers over the course of 7 years of development, and the implied annual salary of each dev is $7.7M.

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Bad Puzzles

What is the difference between a puzzle and a real world problem? A puzzle is devised by someone, generally with the intent of making a pleasant experience for the solver. In contrast, a real world problem is not guaranteed to have a solution, not guaranteed to have a feasible path towards a solution, and is not guaranteed to be pleasant to solve.

Here is a simple math puzzle. Can you design two six-sided dice whose sum follows the same probability distribution as 2D6, but with different numbers (all positive integers) on their faces? Classic, totally possible.

Here’s a simple real world physics problem: Can you estimate Earth’s equatorial bulge from its rotation speed and gravity? I thought I could estimate this using geometrical considerations, but that gives the wrong answer. The correct solution must account for the gravitational field of the bulge itself, which can be calculated by decomposing it into spherical harmonics. Nobody wants to do that.

Puzzles do not always succeed at being enjoyable. Sometimes you waste a lot of time on a puzzle, and then when you look up the solution you think, “I was never going to get that one.” For example, one time I picked up a puzzle box on a friend’s shelf, despite my friend’s insistence that the puzzle was stupid. After messing around a bit, he showed me how to open it: he slammed it hard on the table to shake a magnet loose. I was never going to solve that one, because I happen to have reservations about slamming potentially delicate objects that do not belong to me.

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Origami: Horses

Persian Horse

Persian Horse, designed by Peter Engel

Here’s a horse I folded at a conference many years ago.  It’s meant to stand on its hind legs, although you’d really need to attach it to a stand.

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That time I interviewed a fraud

Here’s a story about a job candidate I interviewed who seemed to be engaging in some sort of AI-assisted fraud.

Before the interview even occurred, there was already suspicion around the candidate. A couple other interviewers observed a lag between the voice and video, and they thought this might be a sign of an AI generated video. And the resume felt way too perfect, claiming extensive experience in basically everything that we do.

I don’t know about the video lag. To the extent there are AI tools out there, I don’t presume to know how exactly they work, nor do I presume that I am capable of distinguishing AI video from a bad internet latency. So I took an approach that was different from other interviewers: I looked at his LinkedIn page.

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Link Roundup: February 2026

This month, the ace journal club discussed an article about gender detachment.  And I wrote an article on the game design of my game.

Epstein Files Reveal How Pathetic Richard Dawkins & Other Men Are | Rebecca Watson (video + transcript, 27 min) – I get readers from outside FTB who have little background with the skeptical and atheist movements, and who don’t get what that means for us.  Here it is.  This is where we came from.  This is what we rejected.  These pathetic thought leaders who were enraged by a woman speaking, and turned around to seek bad advice from then-convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.  First we wanted better, and then eventually we just wanted out.

The Fascists are Lying about ICE Murdering an Innocent Women | Rebecca Watson (video + transcript, 27 min) – Another cathartic video from Rebecca, also featuring a cameo from Michael Shermer.  Fun fact: Michael Shermer got me into the skeptical movement, and fun fact two: he’s a terrible person.

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What’s next in game dev?

So I’m finally done with my video game. What’s next? Should I make another?

I will definitely make a second game. One of my brothers has long been interested in making video games, but never found the motivation to start. So I offered to collaborate with him and show him how to use the game engine. Then I showed him my list of game ideas, and we’re making the very smallest idea on the list.

After that, who knows?
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Origami: Practical Bookmark

Practical Bookmark

Practical Bookmark, designed by me

Here’s a really old design of mine, back in 2013.  I wanted a simple origami bookmark–no frills, just mark my page please.  Some origami bookmarks stick out of the book, and that’s obviously not practical if I’m throwing the book in my bag or something.

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