Newcomb’s Paradox occurs in real life

Newcomb’s paradox is a philosophical thought experiment. There is an entity called Omega, who can predict your choices. Omega presents you with two boxes; you may open one or both boxes, and take whatever you find. The first box contains $1k, guaranteed. The second box contains $1M if and only if Omega predicts that you will leave the first box alone. So the dilemma is between “one-boxing” (taking only the $1M), or “two-boxing” (taking both boxes, finding a total of $1k).

When I put it that way, it seems obvious that $1M is more than $1k, so therefore you should open only one box. The two-boxer argument is that Omega has already decided whether the box contains $1M or not. So whatever’s in the second box is a constant, and it’s only rational to take the free $1k. Omega may have chosen to arbitrarily punish players who behave rationally, but what’s done is done, might as well collect the $1k consolation prize.

Do we care about Newcomb’s paradox?

Newcomb’s paradox has received a great deal of discussion from Rationalists, i.e. the community popularized by Eliezer Yudkowsky. That’s how I know about the paradox. But I’m an outsider, and it appears to me like Rationalists stared at this paradox for so long that they went mad. Yudkowsky is a dedicated one-boxer, and has attempted to construct elaborate theories to justify it. Some of these ideas were crucial in the construction of Roko’s Basilisk.

I believe the reason Yudkowsky and others are so obsessed with Newcomb’s paradox, is because they’re transhumanists. They believe the future will contain a super powerful AI. To most people Omega sounds fantastical—how can any entity make perfect predictions about our actions? But to a transhumanist, a super powerful AI could easily step into the role of Omega.  Additionally, we can think about what happens when AI steps into the role of the player. If the AI is deterministic, then of course we can predict what the AI will choose. So Yudkowsky’s interest is ensuring that an AI will choose correctly in this situation.

But for the rest of us folks who aren’t transhumanists, does Newcomb’s paradox make sense? Is this a problem we even need to think about?

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War mismanagement, in Helldivers

Helldivers 2 is a game that takes a significant amount of inspiration from Starship Troopers, being basically a satire of fascist propaganda. Players take the role of Helldivers, who fight on the side of Super Earth in a galactic war. Super Earth’s goal is to spread liberty Managed Democracy. Managed Democracy is basically a totalitarian government where an algorithm votes on people’s behalf, allegedly based on a prediction of how they would vote.

But where Starship Troopers is a short self-contained movie, Helldivers 2 is a game that people pour hundreds of hours into. It can’t just be a satire of fascist propaganda. It can’t be any single thing. There are many narratives that emerge from it, some of which are at tension with each other. For example, in the interpretation of Starship Troopers it is possible to argue that the bug aliens did nothing wrong, and the humans are the aggressors. On the other hand, Helldivers doesn’t lend itself to such a straightforward interpretation, because there are many clear examples where the aliens are the aggressors.

So I’d like to explain a grander emergent narrative that took me months to understand. It’s a narrative about how players are kept in the dark, and how this leads to a mismanaged war that wastes billions of lives.

For Super Earth

Part of this narrative is very front and center. Of course the galactic war wastes countless lives! The gameplay revolves around that fact.

Helldivers are elite soldiers that get inserted deep behind enemy lines. They spread democratic devastation, often by calling down strikes from their orbital destroyers. These are basically suicide missions. Every time the player dies, they switch perspectives to a whole new helldiver. So the number of lives lost numbers in the billions. And often lives are lost in comedic, pointless ways, like when you accidentally call an orbital strike down on yourself or your friends.

Helldivers are mythologized by citizens of Super Earth. However, the game’s tutorial suggests that they receive minimal training. After a short training routine, a recorded voice absurdly praises you for being the best soldier he’s ever seen, and then you immediately step into a pod to launch off into space. One imagines that they’ve lowered their standards to keep up with the demand for new helldivers.

At tension with this narrative, is the fact that players may in fact be very good at the game. Helldivers could be seen as comically strong, considering how much you can do with just a handful of them. Of course, a lot of their strength comes from absurd amounts of air support.

But if you ignore how overpowered helldivers are, the narrative seems to be about a bunch of low-information fanatical soldiers who are treated like expendable grunts.

The Galactic War

Now in a fascist satire, you might expect a strict military hierarchy where soldiers do exactly what they’re told. But in a game, of course the player wants to be given a choice in how they set up their battles. You get to choose which of the three alien races to fight, and which planet to fight them on. I don’t think this contributes to the satirical narrative, it’s just what you need in a game.

But there is a single galactic war that is shared across the entire player base. Players are given orders, and though you are not forced to complete them, you are rewarded for doing so. There are “personal” orders which are completed by individual players, for example to kill a hundred bugs with a machine gun. And there are “major” orders that must be completed by the player community. For example, to kill a billion bugs total.

If a major order is completed, then every player receives a reward regardless of whether they actually contributed to it. This can create community-wide prisoner’s dilemmas, where some players just want to have fun fighting their own way, which may be at odds with the major order. And sometimes major orders are at odds with personal orders, so that a player might choose to prioritize their personal order, leaving the rest of the community handle the major order.

On top of the fact that players don’t necessarily contribute to major orders, there’s also the question of strategy. Often there are more efficient and less efficient ways to complete an order. For instance, there was an objective to liberate planets, any planets. But some planets are easier to liberate than others! Each planet has a resistance factor which determines how much progress players lose per hour. The mechanics of how this works are simple but opaque, and barely communicated to players. So as a result, ignorant players ended up trying to liberate a planet with high resistance, while knowledgeable players were dragged along for the ride.

Without getting into specifics, attacking or defending a planet requires mass coordination. If only a few players attack a planet, then their contribution to the planet’s liberation is precisely zero. So from an individual perspective, often the best available strategy is to join whatever everyone else is doing. But once you’re in the know, you can often see that a better strategy exists, but it’s wholly inaccessible because it requires getting everyone to switch.

There’s a sort of comedy in this, seeing strategic blunders over and over, but being unable to do anything about it. And it seems to build on the larger narrative of expendable low-information soldiers.

Managed Democracy

I’ve described an emergent narrative, where Super Earth’s military might is undercut by poor information and poor organization. Is this narrative… intentional?

The orders are specifically chosen by the developers in order to construct a larger narrative. The developers want players to sometimes win, sometimes lose, but it is not predetermined when players should win or lose. So what the devs are doing, is trying to predict what the player community is capable of, and setting objectives which are on the knife edge between victory and defeat.

Sometimes, developers miss the mark, and a major order is far too easy or far too hard. So the devs often make adjustments after the fact. For instance, there was a major that required completing certain number of operations on a planet, but it quickly became clear that players would only reach about 10% of the goal. So the developers came up with a story reason to remove that part of the objective. Other times it seems like players are winning too easily, so the developers create tension by declaring new objectives that spread helldiver forces thinner. Intentional or not, this creates a sense of military disorganization.

Now the downside of all this, is that it seems to generate a lot of community toxicity. Some players basically moralize about contributing to the major order. They complain that players who play the wrong way are actively detracting from the major order.

If you think about it, this toxicity doesn’t make much sense. Hypothetically, if the number of players focusing on major orders decreased over time, the devs aren’t going to say, “players never deserve to win a major order again”. No, in the long run, the devs would just adjust their expectations, and set objectives accordingly.

In my view, community-wide challenges are inherently “unfair”. Win or lose, it’s not really up to you. It’s up to all the players, and you’re just one of them. If the community fails to meet the challenge, I don’t take it personally, because it doesn’t mean I personally failed a challenge. It’s hardly even a challenge, it’s more of a background story.

Of course, it’s worth asking, is a fictional narrative worth real world player toxicity? Watching strategic blunders and being unable to do anything about it is frustrating. Players take out that frustration on other players. That’s not great.

Ultimately, the problem with my interpretation is that players identify too strongly with Super Earth. It’s widely understood that players are taking the role of the baddies, it’s not remotely subtle. But when you’re in the game, you’re thinking of it as a game, not a story. The goal of the game is to win. There are material rewards for winning. The way to have fun with games, is by playing to win. Nothing wrong or unusual about that. But when the community loses a challenge, players don’t seem to see past the game, to see the humor in a story about baddies losing.

Rock Paper Scissors and variants

Rock Paper Scissors is a game where two players simultaneously pick one of the three things in the title. Rock beats Scissors, Scissors beats Paper, Paper beats Rock, and if both players pick the same thing they tie.  Rock Paper Scissors is important in game theory, because it is a toy model that helps understand a much broader class of games.

To understand the correct strategy in Rock Paper Scissors, we must understand the difference between pure strategies and mixed strategies. A pure strategy is deterministic, where a mixed strategy is random. There are only three possible pure strategies: pick Rock, pick Paper, and pick Scissors. There are infinitely many mixed strategies available, for example assigning 50% probability to Rock, 25% to Paper, and 25% to Scissors.

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Origami: Drawer box

Drawer box

Drawer Box, designed by Akiko Yamanashi

I got this drawer box from something called the Practical Origami Convention.  I didn’t actually attend the convention, but happened to access the models later, and picked this one out to fold.  I have to imagine that there are a bunch of origamists making “practical” designs like tiny chairs to sit on, and tiny tables to hold tiny flowers.  (I’m joking, I know that practical origami has a lot of emphasis on boxes and envelopes.)

I can’t remember how many sheets this needed, but it was over 10.  Each drawer is a separate sheet, with another sheet to be used as lining.  The cabinet box (I had to look up what this part of the drawer is called) is made of 4 pieces, or maybe more?

Now obviously there’s a lot of origami that stretches what you would think is possible with a single sheet.  But other designs are more sheet-maximalist, with multiple distinct units working together.  There’s some complexity in that; you need to make the sizes match, accounting for the thickness of the paper, and some units need to be firmly attached to each other.

Four reviews of musical sequels

In my family, I have a reputation for hating movies. To some extent this is humorous exaggeration, but it has been a noticeable pattern since my teenage years. What is true is that I do not go out of my way to watch many movies. I only watch a few per year, usually as part of a family outing. And the part of movies I enjoy the most is talking shit about them afterwards. When I have shared this trash talk online, it’s not always well-received, because people love their darlings, and my reasoning is not necessarily well-founded. But I also enjoy reading imdb reviews and laughing at all the weird reasons people like or dislike movies, so it’s only fair that you get to laugh at my weird reasons.

What I have here are a small collection of reviews of musical sequels. In all of these cases, I only saw the second movie, I did not see the first. You are welcome to think that this is the improper way to see them. But it seems like all the movie industry makes anymore is sequels (fact check: sequels are about 40% of the movie market). So isn’t this just the logical conclusion?

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Review: Revenge of the Phantom Press

Revenge of the Phantom Press is a novel by FTBlogger William Brinkmann. It is the sequel to The Rift, which I previously reviewed, although it may be read as a standalone.

To recap The Rift, it follows Tom Larsen, a young man in the skeptical community who goes full men’s rights activist after propositioning a woman in an elevator. It’s a fictionalized story about Elevatorgate and the feminist wars in the skeptical/atheist community. I recommend it if you have any sort of feeling about that topic.

In the Bolingbrook universe, not only is there a skeptical community, but also the paranormal is real. There are psychics, aliens, ghosts, the Illuminati, machine spirits, and more. Many of the leaders in the skeptical movement are participating in the coverup. By the end of the previous book, Tom Larsen has discovered the truth of the paranormal. It goes against his skeptical/humanist values to cover it up, so instead he leaves the skeptical movement to join the unbelievable-yet-true tabloid, The Bolingbrook Babbler. Most people, including his parents, think he went nuts.

At the start of the book, we learn that Tom isn’t very good at his job. He radiates mediocre white dude energy. He struggles to form contacts in the Department of Paranormal Activity, and can’t seem to capture a photo of the local lake monster.

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Link Roundup: March 2026

I wrote an article for The Asexual Agenda which may or may not interest readers, talking about umbrella terminology.

“I am Jesus Christ” and Other Games about Jews | Jacob Geller (video, 40 min) – Jacob diving through obscure games to find any Jewish games at all is actually so relatable.  I do the same for queer media.

Saw | Contrapoints (video, 1:36 hours) – Saw is a 2004 movie about people trapped in a game devised by a serial killer, forced to choose between death and ultra violent suffering.  There is no way I would ever enjoy such a thing myself (that is, a movie), but I appreciate this analysis of what other people might like about it.  Violence is really common in movies, but often it’s couched in terms of justice–violence against people who “deserved” it.  However, in Saw, the character who enacts violence in the name of justice is the villain.

What do we owe the insufferable? | Psychiatry on the margins – Some people with mental illness are challenging to deal with on a personal level.  We can suspend our moral judgment, but that also deprives them of moral agency, treating them like a patient rather than a person.  People with difficult personalities often need help, but even caretakers can find them exhausting, and they end up with lower quality of care.  There are no known solutions.

Heated Rivalry is the romance story I’ve been missing | Council of Geeks (video, 42 min) – This echoes some of the points in my review.  One of my persistent issues with the romance genre is the dilemma between internal and external sources of conflict.  Straight romances frequently have internal sources of conflict.  As a result I often think the relationships are bad, and the characters would be would be better off if they broke up!  M/M romances frequently have external sources of conflict, but this can make the relationship itself boringly perfect.  Heated Rivalry does it differently, the external conflict made internal.