I have a new column this week on OnlySky. It’s about the world transitioning away from fossil fuels, with or without America’s help.
Last month, a coalition of fifty-seven countries held an international conference to discuss their plans for phasing out fossil fuels for good. Petrostates like Russia and the Gulf nations weren’t invited. Neither was the United States.
This so-called coalition of the willing is fed up with the mainstream U.N. climate track, where a single holdout can stall progress forever, and even when agreements are reached, they’re toothless and non-binding. Countries that actually care about climate change are opting out of this designed-to-fail diplomacy and moving forward with what they can do right now, from funding renewable energy development and battery storage to banning ads for fossil fuel.
This conference shows that petrostates are losing their influence over world affairs. In their place, we’re seeing the rise of the electrostate – countries that secure their own energy independence through renewable and zero-carbon power sources. With their decades of investment in green energy, China has surged to a lead, but countries around the world are racing to catch up. This century will belong to the nations that win this green marathon – and in a massive irony, America’s war on Iran has turbocharged the competition.
Read the excerpt below, then click through to see the full piece. This column is free to read, but members of OnlySky also get special benefits, like a subscriber newsletter:
Against this backdrop, the biggest story is America’s colossally stupid war on Iran and Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This conflict has cut off 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas supply, most of which had been going to Asia.
The supply shock and overnight price spike was a rude awakening for Asian nations that depended on Mideast oil and gas. In this interview with Deutsche Welle, energy analyst Sam Geall calls it their “Ukraine moment”. First Europe, and now Asia, have realized the folly of basing their economies on a volatile commodity that can be cut off at the whim of a dictator.
And Asia is responding. The magnitude of the crisis has broken through political inertia and cut across partisan divides. As the DW story puts it, “decisions that might have once taken years are being made in weeks”.
Between the Iran war, the recent exiting of OPEC of the U.A.E. (and Qatar’s leaving back in 2019), and this more co-ordinated project… things are going to get even more interesting in the Middle East.
I think a lot of the blame can be laid at Saudi Arabia’s feet: we know (because Kushner has no concept of operational security) that the Saudi were almost certainly part of the push to get the U.S. to strike Iran, wanting to damage one of their primary rivals in the region. And the U.A.E.’s exit was pretty openly caused by the Saudi control of the cartel and their dissatisfaction with that control and with the House of Saud in general. Saudi Arabia has been pretty much treating OPEC as theirs for years, and MBS seems rather less subtle about some of that than his predecessors. While OPEC isn’t in trouble yet, I bet everybody in the region is going to be watching to see how the U.A.E. does, and if they don’t suffer any obvious negative consequences aside from the Saudi potentially trying to actively sabotage them, they may not be the last to leave.
You’re right that the recent shock is going to get other countries moving faster to disentangle themselves from all this, much like the energy crisis of the 1970s caused a big surge in looking for sources of oil that weren’t in the Middle East.
I hadn’t heard that Saudi Arabia was pushing for the attack on Iran. That’s strange to me, because I recently read that the Saudis were refusing to grant the American military permission to use their territory and airspace to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. I understood it was their way of showing they’re upset about damage from Iranian missile strikes and the impact on their economy from the oil blockade.
Does that mean they pushed for the war but they’re unhappy about how it’s played out? Did they assume the U.S. would be able to win quickly, or at least shoot down Iran’s missiles so they wouldn’t suffer any harm from it?
I’m not sure the Saudis pushed for Trump’s war, but they didn’t exactly push AGAINST it either. They’d invested in the Trump family, so they’re basically stuck on for the ride either way, and have to find a way to adapt and profit from whatever happens. As Sunni Arabs, I think they want SOMEONE to stick it to the Shiite Persians, but don’t really have the guts or strength to do it themselves.
Also, the Saudis kinda-sorta-maybe agreed with Jared to have some sort of “peace” with Israel during Trump’s first term; so maybe they feel kinda bound to support/accept Israel’s war against Iran?
Yes, it was quite widely reported, although everybody seems to source it back to the Washington Post (presumably here, although it’s paywalled). It was also reported that MBS was pushing Trump to keep up the attacks at the end of March (e.g. Saudi Arabia urging US to ramp up Iran attacks, intelligence source confirms), so it looks like there’s either been a change of heart, or they just don’t want to get directly involved.
It’s worth remembering that MBS also suffers from one of Trump’s major problems (possibly even worse), in that he’s surrounded by sycophants and yes-men who will all tell him that whatever stupid shit falls out of his mouth is in fact genius.
My guess at this point is basically:
– Saudi Arabia really wanted Iran kneecapped. Not only are they politically the primary competition, not only are there religious issues (Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia all have different sects of Islam as their state religion), but I suspect that Saudi Arabia sees the idea of Iran actually getting nuclear power going as being a potential existential threat to OPEC.
– Saudi Arabia really didn’t want to be seen as being involved in this, because they wanted to at least be able to pretend their hands were clean rather than making it obvious how much dissension there was within the cartel.
As Dunc noted above as well, MBS is not as good at subtle as he seems to think he is. And the ties between Trump’s family (especially Kushner) and the House of Saud haven’t exactly been secret since the first Trump administration.