In the run-up to the elections, I contrasted the predictions of the poll-aggregators (who base their conclusions on the results of opinion polls) and those of political scientists, who argue that voter preferences are more accurately predicted by the so-called ‘fundamentals’ of the economy like the GDP, the increase of disposable income, unemployment levels, etc., all of which can be measured objectively. We know that the poll-aggregators were very successful in predicting the outcome. So how did the fundamentals models fare? [Read more…]

The current flare-up in the Middle East has for the moment shifted Iran to the background. But you can be sure that once the immediate violence ends and we return to the stalemate of Israel enforcing a cruel blockade and siege of the people in Gaza that has caused such hardship, proponents of a military attack on Iran will be back, relentlessly beating the drums for yet another war. [Read more…]

Given the recent heightened interest in the Latino community after the election, Rep. Luis Gutierrez introduces his Republican colleagues in Congress to the real Latinos in the US, as distinct from the imaginary Latinos that were portrayed during the election.

In an interview, Florida’s Republican senator Marco Rubio, widely seen as a potential candidate on a future national ticket, ducks a direct question that should have an obvious answer. [Read more…]