The anti-science attacks begin

One of the things that has made the US a leader in the global economy is the high quality of its science research. The infrastructure that has been set up to promote science, with organizations such as the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation giving out grants to scientists or, in the case of the NIH, also doing research doing research internally, has resulted in prospective students and researchers from around the world flocking to the US. That has changed more recently with China luring foreign scientists with promises of greater access to research funds. India too has been making attempts to have scientists return to that country.

But the moves by the Trump administration may threaten US dominance much more than the efforts of those countries to attract scientists away.
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Kurt Gödel’s belief in the afterlife

Kurt Gödel (1906-1978) was a powerful logician whose contributions to logic, mathematics, and philosophy were immense. He was deeply interested in those aspects of philosophy that touched on religion and one of those was his ontological proof for God’s existence.

The argument is in a line of development that goes back to Anselm of Canterbury (1033–1109). St. Anselm’s ontological argument, in its most succinct form, is as follows: “God, by definition, is that for which no greater can be conceived. God exists in the understanding. If God exists in the understanding, we could imagine Him to be greater by existing in reality. Therefore, God must exist.” A more elaborate version was given by Gottfried Leibniz (1646–1716); this is the version that Gödel studied and attempted to clarify with his ontological argument.
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Gödel is not known to have told anyone about his work on the proof until 1970, when he thought he was dying. In February, he allowed Dana Scott to copy out a version of the proof, which circulated privately. In August 1970, Gödel told Oskar Morgenstern that he was “satisfied” with the proof, but Morgenstern recorded in his diary entry for 29 August 1970, that Gödel would not publish because he was afraid that others might think “that he actually believes in God, whereas he is only engaged in a logical investigation (that is, in showing that such a proof with classical assumptions (completeness, etc.) correspondingly axiomatized, is possible).”[2] Gödel died January 14, 1978. Another version, slightly different from Scott’s, was found in his papers. It was finally published, together with Scott’s version, in 1987.

(For more see Oppy, Graham. 2017. “Ontological Arguments.” The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, (Summer 2017 Edition), edited by Edward N. Zalta.)
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Palisades fire and Monday morning quarterbacking

The fires that are raging in southern California are taking a terrible toll on lives and property. They have been intensified by the strong Santa Ana winds that reached high speeds passing through the funnel that makes up the valley and feeding on the dry vegetation.

Of course, whenever a disaster like this strikes, there is immediate finger-pointing at :(1) who or what might have been the cause of the fire; (2) who might be responsible for not responding correctly and quickly enough; and (3) who might be responsible for not anticipating the scale of the disaster and making sure that the response would be adequate. Some of this finger pointing is by people acting to deflect attention from themselves. But others indulging in this activity are those who have no connection to the events nor have any particular expertise in this area but still think they know what should have been done to deal with it and are not shy about sharing their conclusions.

Kevin Drum writes that this kind of after-the-fact pontificating is useless when you are dealing with events that lie outside the normal range that can be, and have been, anticipated, and this fire is one such event. He takes aim at one particular accusation, that authorities had not taken into account the amount of water needed is such a fire occurred in this location, and that using sea water or desalinated water would have helped.
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Drive now, talk later

People tend to think of time spent driving as wasted, and try to use it to multitask, most commonly by talking on the phone. I know people who specifically use the time driving to catch up on their phone calls. While most people know (or should know) that using a hand-held mobile phone while driving is not a good idea (and it is banned in some states and countries), many have the impression that using hands-free devices (as many cars have now) is safe. But that is not true. There has been considerable research to show that hands-free devices are as distracting to drivers, making them as dangerous to use. This article summarizes the research.
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Black bears are clever and resourceful. I am keeping well away from them.

I like nature and wildlife and support efforts to preserve both but prefer to view them from a safe distance. Not for me safaris and camping and hiking in the wilderness in the hope of seeing wildlife. Nature documentaries are more my thing.

My aversion to seeing nature up close was enhanced by this article about how black bears have become very common in the very popular (and expensive) resort area of Lake Tahoe that is in the Sierra Nevada mountain region and straddles northern California and Nevada. During the pandemic, a lot of Silicon Valley types moved there and took advantage of the work-from-home policy to decide to stay permanently. But the increase in population and the garbage generated has attracted black bears that now roam the streets of towns and invade homes and cars looking for food. The problem is exacerbated by those the locals call ‘tourons’, a portmanteau of ‘tourist’ and ‘morons’, who are careless about keeping food out of reach and act in ways that attract bears.

Unlike grizzly bears that can be aggressive and vicious, black bears supposedly tend to avoid confrontations and can be scared away fairly easily.
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More on card randomization

After writing my post on the randomization of a deck of cards, I became more curious about this topic. In a deck of 52 distinct cards, there are 52x51x50…x3x2x1 possible arrangements. This is written in the mathematical notation 52! and is an enormous number. Perfect randomization of a deck means that starting with any given arrangement, after the shuffling process, all possible arrangements are equally likely and have the probability 1/52!. One can also think of it as saying that after the randomization process, a card that started out in any given position should be equally likely to be found in any of the 52 positions.

I learned that magicians for some of their tricks use the fact that shuffles do not guarantee randomizing of the deck, and so was curious to see how that might work. To illustrate this very simply, I started with a deck of just ten cards numbered 1 through 10 in order. I then cut the deck in two so that one half contained 1through 5 and the other half contained 6 through 10. Then I imagined a perfect riffle shuffle where the cards from each side are dropped one at a time alternately. You then get the order shown under the heading Shuffle 1.

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Book review: The Name of the Rose by Umberto Eco (1980)

The setting is November 1327 in an abbey in the mountains of northern Italy. A highly learned English Franciscan monk William of Baskerville (formerly an Inquisitor) arrives with his aide, an Italian Benedictine novice named Adso of Melk to mediate a dispute between religious factions and investigate rumored claims of heresy. But just before their arrival, there is a mysterious death of a monk who falls from a high tower in the library. It is not clear if it was suicide or he was pushed but soon there occur a series of gruesome deaths so that it becomes clear that there is a serial killer at work and William sets about trying to unravel the mystery. He becomes convinced that the answer lies with a book that has been hidden away in a labyrinth in the fortress-like library which is zealously guarded by the librarian and the abbot to prevent anyone gaining access to some of the books.

William is described early in the book as having powers of observation and analysis that enables his to reach conclusions that amaze others (including Adso) by their perspicacity. He is an admirer of Francis Roger Bacon and William of Occam and the scientific methods they demonstrated. He is clearly modeled on Sherlock Holmes (his name being a hint) and Adso, as the narrator of the book, is his Watson chronicling his actions. So far, so good. One is prepared for a murder mystery set in a remote abbey in the Middle Ages.
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Exodus of ob-gyns from Texas

The state of Texas has one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country, resulting in the needless deaths of women whom doctors were fearful of treating for pregnancy-related problems because the state could prosecute them under the law. ProPublica has been exposing these cases and reports on yet another one.

Wrapping his wife in a blanket as she mourned the loss of her pregnancy at 11 weeks, Hope Ngumezi wondered why no obstetrician was coming to see her.

Over the course of six hours on June 11, 2023, Porsha Ngumezi had bled so much in the emergency department at Houston Methodist Sugar Land that she’d needed two transfusions. She was anxious to get home to her young sons, but, according to a nurse’s notes, she was still “passing large clots the size of grapefruit.”
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Randomizing a deck of cards

I like the card game bridge and play in local duplicate club tournaments about twice a week. Depending on the game or the preference of the director, the hands that are played are either shuffled and dealt by the players at the beginning of the session or are hands that have been previously generated by a computer and arranged by a dedicated card sorter.

In bridge, each of the four players starts with 13 cards and if the deck of cards has been completely randomized before being dealt, the distribution of the four suits (in any order) can vary from somewhat even distributions such as 4-4-3-2 (21.6% probability) to the next most likely 5-3-3-2 (15.5%), 5-4-3-1- (12.9%). 5-4-2-2- (10.6%), 4-3-3-3 (10.5%) and then starts dropping sharply until it gets to 9-3-1-0 (0.01%). More skewed distributions are even rarer. (The Official Encyclopaedia of Bridge (1984))

A common refrain that I hear from players at the table is that they feel that the hands that are generated by the computer tend to have more skewed distributions than the ones shuffled and dealt at the table. They think that whoever is in charge of the computer that generates the hands tend to program it that way in order to provide greater challenge. I heard this so often that I became curious if this was the case and looked it up to see if there was anything to this bit of bridge folklore.
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Can a passenger stop a self-driving car?

The above question was prompted by a strange dream I had last night. I was in the front passenger seat of a car that supposedly had self-driving capabilities. The owner of the car was in the driver’s seat and at one point got out to do something or other. The car started off without him and proceeded to go somewhere unknown to me. In the dream, I was wondering how to bring the car to a halt but had no idea what to do. In my dream, I looked for the steering wheel and brake pedal and other standard control features of ordinary cars but since I have never been in a self-driving vehicle, my dream did not have that specific information.
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