I choose not to be optimistic


I see a lot of online commentary anticipating that Democrats will flip the house and maybe the senate. They’ve been encouraged by the nomination of Ken Paxton, a totally repulsive corrupt sleazeball, to run against James Talarico — the idea is that that is going to weaken the Republican vote in Texas, along with other visible factors.

Over the last several days, I traveled 550 miles through trump country in Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. I have reliable information that this route was once replete with Trump shrines, but on this trip, there was one (and it was a doozy, near Effigy Mounds, Iowa). All the others had vanished some time over the winter. This isn’t Texas, but it is a very MAGA landscape, and thus a good an indicator. In at least one case, the former Trump Shrine had over the years displayed anti-abortion and various jingoistic symbology. All that stuff was still up, but the name Trump had been taken down. The point is: right wingers, even hard MAGA level right wingers, are erasing Trump from their rhetoric. Assuming that this is a national phenomenon, it matters in Texas.

And now, with the odious Paxton being put in place of the more mainstream Republcian Cornyn to run for Senate in Texas, owing to Trump loyalists following his endorsement, most observers who know Texas are saying that this seat is in play. According to The Hill, “The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the Texas Senate race toward Democrats on Tuesday from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” after state Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the marquee race’s GOP runoff.” Read that carefully. They are not projecting a Democratic win, but they are saying the race is in play.

I’ve seen fewer Trump signs in my area, too, but I can’t help but note that a majority of those Texas Republicans voted for the Trump-endorsed candidate anyway. I have seen predictions of the ‘blue wave’ for years, and every time, I’ve been disappointed. I refuse to fall for it anymore. I predict minimal change as a consequence of the midterms.

Greg Laden is only slightly more optimistic than I am.

There are strong indications that many Republican-held House seats are likely to flip over to the D column. There are reasons to hope for a slim Democratic majority in the Senate. The chances that Republicans will hold trifecta power after the new crop of electeds is planted in January is about zero. Will Texas be part of that important, historic, and civilization changing moment?

To answer that question, I refer to fashion and style guru, Melania Trump. I’d love Texas to get on board, but we don’t really need texas, and Texas always disappoints. For mere self preservation,

I could be totally wrong, and I hope I am, but I expect the Republican party of Evil will cling to their death grip on American politics for a few more years, simply because the electorate have convinced me that they’re morons.

Comments

  1. imback says

    I too am expecting disappointment. But my track record of expectations is not all that good, so who knows.

  2. birgerjohansson says

    The hard-line Republicans will not flip Democrat, but maybe some of them will stay home on election day.
    The ‘independents’ -incuding the ones who normally lean Republican- are now a write-off. You cannot win national elections without the independents.
    .
    But a depressing number of districts are dominated by low-information voters which in practice means Republicans. However, the GOP has to throw immense amounts of money across several states that are in play. They might win Texas if they invest all money there but that leaves other states with insufficient funds for the Republican candidates.
    .
    BTW kudos for the guy from Florida that has ‘misplaced’ a lot of GOP money across the years. May he keep embezzling for as long as he remains in the Senate.

  3. cheerfulcharlie says

    James Talarico is doing far better at this point than Beto O’Rourke was doing at this point. So there is that. We have six months to go until voting day. Real Clear Politics aggregate polling shows Trump at 39.5% approval rating. I do not see how Trump can rise above that in 6 months.

  4. Captain Kendrick says

    The Republicans do not need to win. They only need to keep it close. Shenanigans will take care of the rest.
    Game was over a while ago. We missed the window to save ourselves.

  5. seversky says

    I understand the pessimism but I am hoping that the Senate and the House flip Democrat. I would love the smell of lame duck in the morning and Trump’s frustration would be a joy to behold. I don’t know about Texas. I like what I’ve seen of Talarico although I don’t agree with his religious views, He seems smart and talks well. Whether that’s enough against Paxton, I can’t tell. The GOP’s MAGA base seems to be remarkably unimpressed by the rampant crime and corruption of Trump’s people. But Trump’s success seems to be based om Mencken’s dictum about nobody losing money by underestimating the intelligence of the American people.

  6. Artor says

    Even if Talerico does well in the polls, I expect Paxton to do something like have him arrested on Trumped-up charges. The fix is in in Texas, and that won’t change with a single election.

  7. robro says

    My crystal ball is too foggy. My prayers haven’t been answered in decades.

    Here in California we’ve got an open primary for governor with the very real possibility that two MAGA Republicans will be left running for the job in the Fall, while the two front-running Democrats aren’t great choices, either. In fact, the leading Democrat has questionable ties to the oil industry.

    While that’s the case, I’m inclined to be slightly optimistic rather than pessimistic. My hope is that Democrats gain enough control of the House to make life difficult for Dumpster…kind of like what happened in his first term.

  8. Dibwys says

    I like the various cited reasons for optimism….but Trump and the Maga-Conservatives are willing to do a lot of things they shouldn’t, including nonsensical actions undertaken with great fervor. There is too much uncertainty, uncertainty in what the Republicans will do to try to either not lose or invalidate the election, in how much of which group votes, and in what happens after the election…with a couple of months before the new Congress assumes power (and in 2028 before the new President assumes power)…. So, the only thing I believe about this upcoming election is that I do not know what will happen. Things might work very well, things might work very poorly, and complex instantiations between those dichotomies are quite plausible.

  9. leovigild says

    I have seen predictions of the ‘blue wave’ for years, and every time, I’ve been disappointed. I refuse to fall for it anymore. I predict minimal change as a consequence of the midterms.

    We had a blue wave in 2018 and 2020. The 2022 results were so out of character for an incumbent party they should probably be included too.

  10. raven says

    Being optimistic about the USA has been a losing strategy for a long time.
    I’m done with being optimistic.

    Just going to do what I can to defeat the fascists and see what happens.

    There is a lot the Blue states can do to keep the fascists in Washington DC away.
    It’s called soft secession and it is being done now.

    Soft secession works.
    It is what the Red states of the old Confederacy have been doing since they lost the war in 1865.

  11. says

    I hope Texas flips, but I’m not holding my breath. I’ve been targeted with a lot of that optimism and requests for donations, only to find my local ballot features a lot of unopposed Republicans.

  12. numerobis says

    leovigild: I’m always amazed how Americans view tiny electoral advances as major landslides. There’s only two parties and we see news claiming that 52% is a landslide win.

    In most countries, short of 55% in a runoff is viewed as a close result.

  13. Pierce R. Butler says

    … the electorate have convinced me that they’re morons.

    Not to defend the overall intelligence of US voters, but they do have the excuse of decades of distraction & disinformation.

  14. Bad Bart says

    I’d like to believe that Texas is a reddish shade of purple, but the reality is that the last Democratic governor left office in 1995. I know a number of people in Texas, and while Austin still seems a blue shade of purple, the rest of the state is pretty red…

  15. KG says

    My hunch is that the Democrats will indeed win enough seats to take the House, and probably the Senate – but will not be allowed to take them. As I understand it (please correct me if I’m wrong) the Vice-President has to swear in new senators, and the Speaker new representatives. Trump, alleging fraud, will tell them to refuse to seat enough Democrats to maintain Republican (+traitor Fetterman) majorities, just as he told Pence to block Biden’s 2020 win. To his credit (and there’s very little that is), Pence refused. Can anyone see Vance and Johnson doing the same? American democrats (lower-case “d”) should be preparing now to combat both cheating of various kinds before and during the election, and attempts to overturn the results if the cheating proves insufficient. A general strike and the convergence of tens of millions on Washington DC is the least that is likely to be required to force Vance and Johnson to respect the results.

  16. nomdeplume says

    “encouraged by the nomination of Ken Paxton, a totally repulsive corrupt sleazeball”. If Americn voters have demonstrated anything with certainty in the last ten years (and more) it is that they demand “totally repulsive corrupt sleazebal” to voye for, and then proceed to do so.

  17. Pierce R. Butler says

    KG @ # 19: As I understand it (please correct me if I’m wrong) the Vice-President has to swear in new senators…

    I couldn’t find much about this in a brief search, except that some guy named Joe Biden, after being elected to the Senate for the first time in ’72, wanted to stay at his hospitalized sons’ bedside, and had his oath administered there by the Secretary of the Senate.

    Couldn’t find anything (useful) about the House oath of office.

  18. StevoR says

    I fear and expect the mid-terms will be rigged, cancelled or both – not in that order, obvs.

    With the Trumpist fascists in charge who have already been rigging and gerrymandering and warping things their way and projecting so much of what they themselves will probly do – if they haven’t already done it – I doubt they’ll be any actual free and fair elections.

    Voter suppression of course and maybe Musk cheating and certasinly the counter-productive willful wrongness of the third party spoilers, Bothsiderists and OnlyUnicornists already robbed the USA’s last actual hope for avoiding Fascism and tyranny in their last election where too many directly or indrectly chose him over her. Misogyny played its ugly part there too.

  19. John Morales says

    I fear and expect the mid-terms will be rigged, cancelled or both – not in that order, obvs.

    You claim the last election was rigged, so there’s that.

    You are a defeatist conspiracy theorist, is wha you are.

  20. StevoR says

    @19 . KG : “My hunch is that the Democrats will indeed win enough seats to take the House, and probably the Senate – but will not be allowed to take them. “

    Scarily plausible if they even allowed to get that far and IF there’s elections that are remotley representative which I doubt.

    Oh & yeah #18, the usual political colours for the rest of the globe are backwards in the USoA like their politics generally. The lingering impact of McCarthyism has left catastrophic damage blowing off pretty much an entire wing of the bird of politics there.

    @15. Pierce R. Butler : “Not to defend the overall intelligence of US voters, but they do have the excuse of decades of distraction & disinformation.”

    Plus a really broken and poor education system and that dreadful well-known streak of anti-intellectualism in USA culture.

    @ numerobis : “I’m always amazed how Americans view tiny electoral advances as major landslides. There’s only two parties and we see news claiming that 52% is a landslide win.”

    Agreed. Trump keeps claiming he “won”(dubious actually see #22) in a “landslide” but it was actually 49.8% to him versus Kamala getting 48.3% so actually extremely close and a squeaker. Partly hidden by the horrendous anti-democatic Electoral College system of course but still. Just a few % and few thousand votes in it. So yeah that 2% or so Bothsiderists and Third party spoilers and the non-voters put of fby the bullshit made a fatal difference.

  21. StevoR says

    @23. John Morales : I base my views on the evidence. That voter suppression robbed Kamala is a statement of fact :

    Trump lost. That is, if all legal voters were allowed to vote, if all legal ballots were counted, Trump would have lost the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Vice-President Kamala Harris would have won the Presidency with 286 electoral votes.

    And, if not for the mass purge of voters of color, if not for the mass disqualification of provisional and mail-in ballots, if not for the new mass “vigilante” challenges in swing states, Harris would have gained at least another 3,565,000 votes, topping Trump’s official popular vote tally by 1.2 million.

    Stay with me and I’ll give you the means, methods and, most important, the key calculations.

    (Bold emphasis original.)

    Source : https://sdvoice.info/trump-lost-vote-suppression-won-here-are-the-numbers/

    Sure I’ve already cited that Greg Palast piece to you before. I think Palast’s analysis and numbers there are spot on. Accurate. You don’t? Why not?

    Musk cheating OTOH, I’m less sure of but there’s certainly some strong indications and reasons for suspicion. It’d be great if they could be properly investigated but of course with Trumpist fascism now in charge its hard to see that happening even from the cowed and craven media that is supposed to hold the powerful to account.

    There’s some things Felon Musk said including to his then partner Ashley St Clair :

    St. Clair says she told Elon not to say more when he said the piece he was talking about shouldn’t even be on the proverbial chessboard — because she didn’t want to be deposed later on … so, he never told her exactly what he meant by the comment.

    St. Clair says she told Elon not to say more when he said the piece he was talking about shouldn’t even be on the proverbial chessboard — because she didn’t want to be deposed later on … so, he never told her exactly what he meant by the comment.
    She claims Elon sent her things like real-time data she doesn’t think he ever should’ve had access to, given what she knows of political canvassing during campaign season.

    St. Clair also says she remembers Elon bailing on her at Mar-a-Lago on Election Night … texting her and saying he had to go because his team had numbers indicating Donald Trump was going to win — because his team has the best “real-time data.”
    Musk shouldn’t have had real-time data of a national election, St. Clair believes … a big red flag in her eyes.

    Source : https://www.tmz.com/2026/05/20/ashley-st-clair-makes-claims-about-elon-musk-election-role/

    Which is all too plausible and sounds like stuff Musk would say and do. You don’t believe her? You think Ashley St Clair is lying? I don’t.

    St Clair isn’t the only source of some suspicious statements either notably from Trump on a few occasions. Something does seem to be very dodgy there.

    Musk also openly tried to bribe voters and we know he, Trump and the Techbros do NOT believe in actual Democracy and definitely don’t believe in playing fair or with honour etc.. Note actual relevant legal action is being taken :

    The comment set off alarm, including for Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett. “So, Trump is rambling on about he and Elon rigging the election?! Am I missing something or is he confessing to yet another damn crime?!” she posted on social media.

    Now, a Wisconsin nonprofit has filed a legal complaint accusing Musk, his America PAC, and a Musk-affiliated group called United States of America Inc. of violating state election laws by bribing voters.

    The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign and two voters allege Musk handed out $1 million checks and that his PAC paid $100 to registered voters who signed petitions and gave their contact information. Wisconsin law prohibits offering anything of value over $1 to encourage someone to vote.

    …(Snip)… The controversy has added fuel to growing concerns over anomalies in places like Rockland County, New York, where Vice President Kamala Harris reportedly received virtually no votes despite Democratic victories in other races.

    Source : https://afro.com/trump-musk-election-integrity-concerns/

    There’s also the reality of the whole Repugs and Trumpists especially projecting onto others their own worst plans and ideas and notably all the accusations that the 2020 election won by Biden was rigged. Did the fascist party do what they accuse the non-Fascist party of doing? Quite possibly.

    Now this isn’t conclusive and I’m not saying I’m sure that Musk cheated and rigged it but I do think there’s enough for suspicion and that it is quite plausible and even likely that that was the case. Conspiracy theory? Maybe – but there’s enough evidence and reason to at least warrant investigation and serious consideration here in my view.

  22. Walter Solomon says

    Not to defend the overall intelligence of US voters, but they do have the excuse of decades of distraction & disinformation.

    Not to mention mass disenfranchisement and voter suppression. Let’s not forget that.

  23. Doc Bill says

    Paxton is going to run a campaign on fear and smear. Already they are calling Talarico gay and a more radical liberal than AOC who will raise your taxes to pay for Drag Queen Story Hour.

    If Dunning-Kruger was an infectious disease, Texas would be an epidemic. The state is full of the most self-assured, know-it-all racists and bigots on the planet. Often wrong, never in doubt.

    Paxton could wear Klan robes and the MAGA would vote for him to “own the libs.” Sure, Paxton is a self-dealing, adulterous crook but, hey, he owns the libs; nothing else matters.

  24. numerobis says

    Paxton is saying that Talarico is vegan because he once got a cheese and egg sandwich. Like, you can’t make this up.

  25. Tethys says

    Oh noes, gay and vegan!! Everyone knows that real men only eat hamburderz and are totes heterosexual. Especially all those good old boys in their enormous trucks that they cant afford to drive because fuel has now doubled in price.

  26. indianajones says

    I’m not a Trump supporter but I’m still a republican so…

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^An actual family of Texans that I am related to by marriage.

  27. eastexsteve says

    If Talerico can get the same kind of support from the Latino community that trump did in 24, (55%) he can certainly win Texas. trumps hateful rhetoric directed toward the Latino community over the past dozen years has done nothing but increase his support among that community to levels not seen before in Texas for republicans; evidence that more than a few had their fingers stuck in their ears while singing lalalalala, as trump defined them as “drug dealers, criminals, rapists.”

  28. John Morales says

    [OT]

    StevoR @25:
    (Bold emphasis original.)

    And stupid.
    I already debunked that claim, directly to you.
    Repeating it is not useful, because your denialism is not logical.

    Deal with the reality: the voters who bothered to vote voted Trump in.

    You are exactly like a Trump supporter claiming the 2020 election was stolen.

  29. StevoR says

    @ ^ John Morales : You debunked Greg Palast’s piece on voter suppression? I don’t think you did.

    Also, no, I’m not going to go over and storm the Capitol obvs. Would be a bit late for that now wouldn;t it?

  30. StevoR says

    PS. “already debunked that claim, directly to you..”” .. Where and when?

  31. John Morales says

    StevoR, your own research.

    I told you, even presuming EVERY SINGLE PERSON ALLEGEDLY PROHIBITED FROM VOTING voted for Harris, it would be fraught. That is the gist.

    I don’t want to recapitulate, reiterate, reanalyse it.

    If there were any merit to that whatsoever, it would have traction.

    “indianajones”, YOUR TIME, I WASTE

  32. StevoR says

    @ Defender of Trump helping trolls Silentbo : Now this is a more appropriate thread to note what you tried to derail PZ Myers’s PT with here :

    https://proxy.freethought.online/pharyngula/2026/05/26/first-day-of-pt/#comment-2301687

    Stevo, Mano has a post tailor made for your latest obsession: (link snipped) It’s about why the Democrats couldn’t beat the worst candidate for president in history. There’s more than one reason but one relevant to your obsession is: The Gaza Effect:

    Which shows their counter-productive lack of critical thinking in that Trump was far WORSE on Gaza as I predicted and warned at the fucking time – & Trump was the ONLY alternative!

    Horrible reality is that those who ran the Abandon Biden – Harris campaign against the Democratic party based on their self-proclaimed care for Gazans and Palestinians have helped to destroy their cause and worsen the genocide and make their survival and recovery less likely – indeed extremely unlikely. The only way to help Gaza and Palestinians was to support and unify behind Kamala because, well, we’ve seen what Trump is doing to them and wants from them and, of course, Trump using the very word “Palestinian” as a slur against Biden should have tipped off anyone actually paying attention there. But, no, those (expletives) didn’t pay attention or properly think things through, did they?

    The Bothsiderists and Only-Unicornists ignore the reality that following the Hamas attack on the 7th October 2023 ANY President of the USA would have supported Israel which is what Biden obviously being part of the any POTUS category did. He didn’t support them as much as Trump subsequently had and Biden did NOT support genocide but instead urged restraint, criticised Netanyahu, sanctioned extremist settlers and even withheld some larger weaponry from the IDF as I’ve previously stated to you with overwhelming supporting evidence.

    OTOH, as we know Trump stopped criticising Netanyahu, urged him to “finish the job!” reversed those sanctions empowering the extremist far reichwing inside Israel and gave the IDF & the Netanyahu -Smotrich-Ben Gvir govt everything it wanted including, oh yeah, the war on Iran that every previous POTUS esp Democratic ones rejected but Trump was stupid enough to agree to do. As I predicted pre-election. Thus hurting the Palestinians and Gazans even more destroying their main international supporter and getting thousands more people killed that would NOT have died or been gravely injured had Kamala become POTUS.

    Also Kamala ” worst candidate for president in history” eh? No. No she was not.

    So it turns out Trump’s second term wasn’t because a specific random blog commenter Trump supporting troll you’re obsessed trying to hold accountable for their evil Trumpism and bad faith here – and almost certainly elsewhere with failed to support genocide. ran a years long campaign attacking and lying about the Democratic party whilst never noting the Fascist parties alternative was exponentially vastly worse.

    Fixed for ya.

    Without a time machine where the Trump helping bad faith troll “beholder” isn’t doing what they did we’ll never know how much influence they had. They certainly didn’t help and worked hard to try to elect Trump by probly pretending to be left wing and attacking only the Non-Fascist party instead of the Fascist one of the two and only two Presidential contender parties.

    As history has repeatedly proven (1992 & 1996 Perot, 2001 Nader, 2016 Stein the first time, 2024 Stein & West) third parties can ONLY act as spoilers and will not actually win and become POTUS in the fatally flawed (former?) USoA governance system. The Trump helping troll therefore stood with fascists and helped fascists seize power which is doing incalculable harm to everyone on this planet.

    Asked you, Silentbob, many times before and you never answer* but again, why the fuck do you defend the Trump helping bad faith troll beholder?

    It was because Harris and her party royally fucked up.

    Guess you’ll have to call her Trump-enabler Harris from now on dude. (/ off topic)

    .- Trump helping troll Beholder, er sorry make that Trump helping troll defender and helper here Silenbo

    No. She did NOT enable Trump or throw the election as trolls like you absurdly claim. As already explained above here :

    https://proxy.freethought.online/pharyngula/2026/05/28/i-choose-not-to-be-optimistic/#comment-2301914

    Kamala actually did pretty well given the short time she had and everything arrayed against her. She tried to win over the centrists and independents who remember are not her base because you can’t win elections from just your base – you need to win over people on the other side too. Like many female politicians she was handed a metaphorical poisoned chalice. But despite it all she very nearly – maybe actually did – win.

    Do you think Biden would’ve done better? Would you have preferred Joe to Kamala? He was a lot further behind especially after that debate and, yes, he probly should ‘ve stepped down halfway through his term in her favour but again, unfortunately no time machines exist to do that.

    The Democratic party isn’t perfect. No politician ever will be. You don’t get fucking unicorns and, no, this imperfection does NOT mean both sides are equally bad or that its worth pushing third party spoilers that hurt the political wing they are meant to be on.

    .* Frex here : https://proxy.freethought.online/pharyngula/2025/05/16/mokele-mbembe/#comment-2265477

  33. Silentbob says

    I love hoe I’ve been promoted to ” Defender of Trump helping trolls Silentbo” X-D

    Well I guess that’s still one rank below “Trump enabler Harris” eh Stevo.

    BTW my off topic comment was very clearly marked as such – it’s just Mano’s post was so relevant to your obsession I thought you’d be more likely to see it if I posted in reply to your most recent comment. I’m sure PZ’s knees, fascinating though they are, will forgive me.

  34. Silentbob says

    BTW Stevo, it just occurred to me that “Silentbo” mught not be a typo, but a reference to me referring to you my your first name “Stevo” and leaving off the last initial. Like calling “PZ Myers ” “PZ”. Or “Rob Grigjanis” “Rob”.

    If so, thanks for that dude, your attempt at pretending high dudgeon at being called by your actual name you yourself put in your handle was fucking hilarious. X-D

  35. StevoR says

    Now for my thoughts on Mano Singham’s flawed analysis here as requested by Silentbob in that other thread where it was totally off-topic & attempted derailing :

    https://proxy.freethought.online/singham/2026/05/26/the-democratic-party-establishment-has-to-be-overthrown/

    First and foremost, the 2024 election where Americans had to choose between Kamala and Trump, fascism and not-Fascism was a basic test of intelligence and ethics and too many Americans failed that test.

    That in a nutshell is why Kamala lost.

    To quote Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade “They chose poorly. “ With far less excuse & fewer and clearer choices than old Donovan had.

    The question then becomes why so many failed that basic test of ethics and intelligence.

    Mano Singham cites and supports the analysis – actually done by the group RootsAction – that blames 5 factors :

    (1) Voter Disenchantment:
    (2) Biden’s Betrayal in not stepping aside soon enough.

    (3) Abandoning the Working-Class Base

    (4) The Gaza Effect.

    & (5) Losing Young Voters.

    But really, to Mano and too many others, it boils down to blaming the Democratic party.

    That overlooks and ignores these five factors which I think are more significant here & most responsible for the result :

    (A) Voter Suppression – as cited and proven in Greg Palast’s article as previously cited in my #25.

    (B) Bothsiderism, the horrifically mistaken, obviously false view that the two parties are equally bad when the Repugs are outright Fascist and the Democratic party are reasonable, rational and actually have a good set of policies.

    (C) Only-Unicornism – the idea that many left wing people have that you need a candidate you can fall in love with that has to be perfect and ideologically pure when in reality there’s no such thing and if there was they wouldn’t win because they wouldn’t appeal to and would scare away other voters outside your narrow base.

    (D) Misogyny.

    & (E) Poor educated, misinformed and lacking in critical thinking voters. This obviously applies to Trump famously loving the poorly educated but also those who preferred third party spoilers or not voting.

    That factor ( E ) there explains Mano’s / Roots Actions factors 3, 4 & 5 because voters wrongly believed the Democratic party had supposedly “abandoned their working class” which was NOT the case – and even if they had Trump was and is far worse for the working class as is now so painfully obvious.

    Likewise on Gaza, Biden and certainly Kamala were NOT responsible for Netanyahu’s genocide which they did NOT support and tried to stop by calling for restraint, sanctioning extremists, criticising & arguing with Netanyahu and even withholding some weaponry from Israel. Plus, of course, Trump again – the ONLY other option in the shitty binary the USA has – was massively worse as has been proven by subsequent events although it was known and clear from his previous term when he was, to use in Mehdi Hasan’s description “the most anti-Palestinian POTUS ever.”

    Oh and losing young voters was the consequence of them being misinformed, disinformed, poorly educated, too often misogynist and lacking in critical thinking especially comparing their two choices and deciding wisely whether they were “enchanted” with their two & ONLY two choices or not. Too influenced by my factors B, C, D & E.

    For Mano – Root factor (1) it’s simply life and political reality that again, Bothsiderists and Only Unicornists ignore at their – and the rest of our planet’s – peril. You can get two choices. They don’t enchant and inspire you? You aren’t passionately in love with them? Tough shit. Grow the fuck up. It doesn’t matter, those are the choices you have & if you don’t like them then you need to participate politically and work to create better ones in the future. Join up, work hard and even run yourself if you think you can do better. Try to reform the system definitely!

    Just saying “Waaaaaaahhh!! I don’t like the better option enough!” does NOT excuse you from voting for it versus effectively helping the one that’s far worse. It isn’t an excuse to vote for counter-productive vanity campaign spoilers who are de facto helping and votes for the worse instead of the better. Or rejecting the idea of Democracy full stop and not voting at all allowing your country to fall to tyranny.

    For (2) Biden stepping down earlier, I agree. He should have handed over to Kamala halfway through his first term. That is on him. It would’ve helped perhaps overcome some of the misogyny and racism too if she was doing a great job as POTUS which she would have done. Had she been the incumbent president that would’ve helped her and lifted the country and been a wonderful thing that might have made enough difference.

    But I don’t think that factor is all or alone in a long list of very significant what ifs.

    Trump should’ve been much more heavily penalised after Jan 6th and his first term (how did so many forget that so quickly?!?!) and, indeed, should have been in jail for the rest of his life starting Jan 7th or before. The US “legal – clearly not actual “Justice” system failed its job.

    The media should’ve held Trump accountable and been far more critical and damming of him. They failed in their responsibility – at their billionaire owners demand in many cases.

    The Repugs who did turn on him briefly after Jan 6th should’ve stayed solid in that turn against him and continued condemnation and rejection of him rather than cravenly capitulating to him as they did. The Repugs should’ve expelled Trump and NOT allowed him to be their nominee. They deserve a lot of blame here – many tens of times more so than the Democratic party.

    So factor (2) Biden is valid but lesser than and not as major as my five factors listed above which explain the result far better than the Mano / RootsAction analysis that Silentbob wanted my views on so badly.

    Thinking of Roots Action just who and what are they? Lessee :

    RootsAction was founded in 2011 by two longtime progressive advocates and journalists, Norman Solomon and Jeff Cohen, (who & who? – Ed.) and quickly grew. We need a fresh approach to defend the public interest and expand social justice. Our country faces an increasingly extremist Republican Party that is largely a subsidiary of corporate America, and a Democratic Party whose leadership is enmeshed with and compromised by corporate power.

    … (snip).. That’s why RootsAction has been strongly endorsed by such respected, independent-minded progressives as … (third party spoiler candidate who helped Trump seize power -ed) Cornel West..

    Source : https://rootsaction.org/about-rootsaction

    So, IOW, RootsAction is a fringe lobby group that attacks the Democratic party and proudly boasts of being endorsed by one of those third party spoilers & unethical traitors to progressive left wing politics and the interests of our entire pale blue dot who helped Trump win.

    I think that’s their credibility blown and bias exposed here.

    I don’t think they are willing to consider the reality that they were far less than helpful here in preventing Trumpist fascism and that their efforts are part of the problem when what was absolutely needed was unifying behind and supporting the non-fascist Democratic party and Kamala Harris when it mattered.

    Instead they undermined her knowing the obvious fact that doing so helped him.

    RootsAction, like too many others therefore failed the basic test of intelligence and ethics that was the final free and fair~ish (or was it?) USoA election.

    So, happy with that analysis that you literally asked for Silentbob?

  36. StevoR says

    Italics -fix for readibility here :

    That factor ( E ) there explains Mano’s / Roots Actions factors 3, 4 & 5 because voters wrongly believed the Democratic party had supposedly “abandoned their working class” which was NOT the case – and even if they had Trump was and is far worse for the working class as is now so painfully obvious.

    Likewise on Gaza, Biden and certainly Kamala were NOT responsible for Netanyahu’s genocide which they did NOT support and tried to stop by calling for restraint, sanctioning extremists, criticising & arguing with Netanyahu and even withholding some weaponry from Israel. Plus, of course, Trump again – the ONLY other option in the shitty binary the USA has – was massively worse as has been proven by subsequent events although it was known and clear from his previous term when he was, to use in Mehdi Hasan’s description “the most anti-Palestinian POTUS ever.” “

    Oh and losing young voters was the consequence of them being misinformed, disinformed, poorly educated, too often misogynist and lacking in critical thinking especially comparing their two choices and deciding wisely whether they were “enchanted” with their two & ONLY two choices or not. Too influenced by my factors B, C, D & E.

    For Mano – Root factor (1) it’s simply life and political reality that again, Bothsiderists and Only Unicornists ignore at their – and the rest of our planet’s – peril. You can get two choices. They don’t enchant and inspire you? You aren’t passionately in love with them? Tough shit. Grow the fuck up. It doesn’t matter, those are the choices you have & if you don’t like them then you need to participate politically and work to create better ones in the future. Join up, work hard and even run yourself if you think you can do better. Try to reform the system definitely!

    Just saying “Waaaaaaahhh!! I don’t like the better option enough!” does NOT excuse you from voting for it versus effectively helping the one that’s far worse.

  37. StevoR says

    @ 38. & #39 Silentbob :

    I love hoe I’ve been promoted to ” Defender of Trump helping trolls Silentbo”

    That’s NOT a promotion. You disappoint me. I expected and hoped for you to do and think and behave better.

    Well I guess that’s still one rank below “Trump enabler Harris” eh Stevo.

    Nope. No such thing as “Trump enabler Harris” because she wasn’t enabling him but opposing him. Unlike those who actually helped enable trump like the troll you defend here for unexplained reasons who spent years lying about and attacking the only real alternative to Trump and his fascist party.

    BTW my off topic comment was very clearly marked as such – it’s just Mano’s post was so relevant .. (snip).. I thought you’d be more likely to see it if I posted in reply to your most recent comment.

    Nah. I don’t buy that. Did you seriously expect me to?

    Plenty of other threads you could’ve put it where I’d have seen it and it would’ve been actually at least tangentially relevant. Also the way you put it? People can and do read things for themselves and judge based on that y’know.

    BTW Stevo, it just occurred to me that “Silentbo” might not be a typo, but a reference to me referring to you my your first name “Stevo” and leaving off the last initial.

    Taken you long enough.

    If so, thanks for that dude, your attempt at pretending high dudgeon at being called by your actual name you yourself put in your handle was fucking hilarious.

    Not high, not especially funny, just a small hint that, hey, I might actually want my full nym used.

    You do seem to have an issue with using people’s names / handles correctly and respecting their wishes on them as, frex, your misunderstanding of John Morales and your subsequent obsessive, petty and mean constant attacks on him for many years here.

    @36. John Morales : You assert you debunked it but I don’t remember you doing so and what you wrote there was just a statement of opinion not facts.

    Greg Palast is :

    “..a forensic economist and data journalist. Palast covered vote suppression for The Guardian, BBC Television and Rolling Stone.. He is the author of New York Times bestsellers on the topic including The Best Democracy Money Can Buy.

    Source (again) : https://sdvoice.info/trump-lost-vote-suppression-won-here-are-the-numbers/

    So Palast has credibility here and expertise. I don’t see anything you’ve said in your #36, #32 or elsewhere that makes me doubt him or rebuts the case he made in his article or his maths. I see no reason to believe he is wrong there and you haven’t provided one that I‘ve seen.

    That what Palast wrote hasn’t been prominently discussed widely enough doesn’t make him wrong given the pathetic and corrupted state of the media. It’s certainly NOT the only thing that hasn’t been getting enough attention and coverage.

  38. John Morales says

    Yah, “proven” by a highly partisan and controversial journalist.
    Weird how absolutely nothing has come of it IRL, no?
    Zero traction except on such as you

    It is pure wishful thinking, and it is exactly the same as Trump types saying the election was stolen in 2020.

    Here, for you, again: https://en.wikiversity.org/wiki/Palast_says_Trump_lost%2C_vote_suppression_won_the_2024_elections#Claim_that_%22Trump_lost,_vote_suppression_won%22

    (was still in my history from last time I talked to you about this, which you clearly have forgotten)

  39. StevoR says

    @ ^ John Morales : Okay, thanks. I don’t recall seeing that before.

    Lessee. From that :

    Unfortunately, it’s not obvious how Palast got from these and other claims to his final conclusions. We get close to his numbers by assuming that Harris got 65% of the 12 million suppressed votes and Trump got the rest:

    That seems a reasonable conclusion given the majority of those being suppressed are African-American or other minority voters. Could well be conservative %~age and actually more like say 75% at a guess here.

    Sadly, it is not obvious where Palast got his numbers. David Pakman notes that Palast does not adequately document how he got his numbers, saying that Palast’s conclusions do not hold if some sources are replaced by others that Pakman claims are more credible.[13] Unfortunately, it’s not obvious where Pakman got his numbers, either.

    So yeah, that’s an issue and it would be good to know but I don’t think it disproves what Palast wrote and claims there. Its contentious &disputed maybe but NOT debunked.

    I also don’t think Palast being “controversial”” means Palast is automatically wrong either.

    Especially when you put a lot of other things eg Ashley St Clair’s testimony noted in #25 and some things Trump and Musk have said together too.

    Not conclusive maybe but highly suggestive and deserving of more attention and investigation than its getting I reckon.

  40. Owlmirror says

    I can’t help but note that a majority of those Texas Republicans voted for the Trump-endorsed candidate anyway.

    Something I’ve been wondering about is the cause-and-effect sequence of the endorsement. That is, there were articles from back in March that Trump was waffling on who to endorse, and that the majority of MAGA GOP voters might have been shown as preferring Paxton. It might have been the case that Trump’s endorsement did not cause Paxton’s win, but rather, he chose to to endorse Paxton because MAGA GOP polls strongly indicated that Paxton was going to win anyway, and Trump hates being seen as making the wrong choice.

    Here, for example.
    https://www.rawstory.com/ken-paxton-2676633086/

    Paxton “is beloved by MAGA supporters”. Yech.

    Also:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas

    The race has been seen as a key contest between the Texas Republican Party’s establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction.[1] In recent years, insurgent hard-right candidates have steadily gained ground, often ousting more traditional GOP officials. Polling reflects this divide: Paxton holds a commanding lead among “Trump Movement” voters, while Cornyn performs better with the smaller group of “Traditional Republicans”.[5]

    (The tense of this section has obviously not been modified to reflect the completed runoff primary election)

    (I know that a couple sentences later it says that “[Trump’s] influence was widely seen as a key factor in determining the primary winner.”, but I think there is at least some room for doubt. Paxton might not have won with his landslide 64%, had the endorsement gone the other way, but he could well have still won)

  41. John Morales says

    StevoR,

    Not conclusive maybe but highly suggestive and deserving of more attention and investigation than its getting I reckon.

    No national Democratic officials, congressional leaders, or major media outlets (e.g. MSNBC, CNN, or The New York Times) have given that claim any coverage or backing.
    That’s how suggestive and deserving it is.

    (Try to find any such, if you doubt me)

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