Samantha Bee explains the steps that need to be taken before we can start relaxing the distancing rules and why that cannot be done quickly.
Mano Singham
Just another Freethought Blogs site
The horrific massacre by a lone gunman in Nova Scotia is even worse than originally reported. It now appears that he killed 22 people during his 12-hour rampage dressed as a police officer and driving a replica of a police vehicle. The increase in numbers is because authorities have found bodies in buildings that he set on fire.
It appears that he had targeted his first victims who were known to him and then went on a killing spree on anyone who had the misfortune to cross his path as he drove around.
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[Sorry for the glitch! I have corrected it. -MS]
We have heard about some church preachers demanding that their churches be allowed to have in-person services and violate the social distancing guidelines. Some may be doing it because of their belief that the god demands the actual physical presence of people close together while others may be doing it for ideological reasons such as that no government can tell them when and where they should go. They use the spurious argument that their god will protect the truly faithful.
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I wrote before about how the coronavirus pandemic is creating the conditions for many natural experiments to be conducted. One is the question of how effective the various countermeasures being taken are. We have seen that in Trumpland, those parts of the country where his followers are dominant, the social distancing guidelines are being ignored or relaxed early, despite warnings by public health experts that this could lead to a resurgence in the number of infected cases. These people, especially in rural areas, seem to think that they are relatively immune from the pandemic because the absolute numbers in their areas so far have been relatively few, though on a per capita basis that may not be the case.
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In the state of Kentucky, heavily armed and masked protestors of the pandemic containment measures entered the state capitol building waving their weapons without any hindrance from the security personnel. What is strange is that umbrellas and stick are prohibited. Even one of the gun-toting people was surprised that they were allowed in so easily.
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Although I was generally aware of the terrible history of racism against blacks in the US, I have to admit that I was horrified at the degree to which they were systematically institutionalized after slavery was abolished by the 13th Amendment passed in 1865 in the wake of the Civil War. The states in the South quickly set about putting into law many of the awful conditions that slaves had suffered under and had looked forward to being released from. In his book Reconstruction; America’s Unfinished Revolution, 1863-1877 (1988, 2014), historian Eric Foner describes what happened.
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It is a measure of how much the news media in the US has been dominated by the pandemic that a horrific shooting during a 12-hour rampage in Nova Scotia, Canada yesterday that resulted in 18 deaths including the gunman, was relegated to the kind of coverage given to minor stories.
The initial details of this story are a little puzzling. The 52-year old gunman’s profession was described as a ‘denturist’, someone who makes and installs dentures and other oral devices.
Wortman, who is believed to have known several of the victims, appears to have acted in alone, said police. Authorities have not yet determined a motivation for the attacks, but the fact that Wortman had created a replica RCMP vehicle and police uniform suggested his early actions were deliberate.
“The fact that this individual had a uniform and a police car at his disposal certainly speaks to it not being a random act,” said Chris Leather, RCMP chief superintendent.
The fact that he prepared quite extensively for the shooting, equipping himself with a replica of a police car and obtaining a police uniform, would suggest someone who picked his targets randomly for who knows what reason. But the news report suggests that he knew at least some of the victims. Why go to all that trouble if you wanted to kill specific people who would have recognized you anyway and would know that you were not a police officer?
In the US, different states have had different levels of success with limiting the growth of Covid-19 cases. California, the state I live in, has been better than most in the number of cases per capita and this is being credited to early and vigorous action by the governor in issuing social distancing rules and shutting down parks and beaches, since even a couple of days delay can make a big difference in outcomes
After a resident of California died of coronavirus on 4 March, Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency. It was the first Covid-19 related death in the US outside of Washington state.
More than 24,424 people have tested positive for coronavirus in California and 821 people have died. Yet the losses, while tragic, are a fraction of what experts predicted the state’s 40 million people would face.
The virus is spreading fast in southern California and the state’s Central Valley – so it’s not out of trouble yet.
But considering the dire prediction made by Governor Gavin Newsom in March that up to 25 million Californians could be infected with coronavirus, the situation in California has been surprisingly well controlled.
…California was the first place in the United States to issue shelter in place orders. Gov Newsom ordered California to shelter in place on 19 March – three days before New York.
…But can a day or two really make that much difference? “Oh yes,” said Dr Neha Nanda, the medical director of infection prevention and antimicrobial stewardship at Keck Medicine, University of Southern California.
“Even being one day ahead can have a huge impact,” she told the BBC. “The morbidity we will be able to avert, the mortality we will be able to avert – it’s huge.”
Because so little is known about the virus or how it can be treated, it makes prevention “more important than anything else,” she said. “The most potent tool that you have in tool kit is social distancing.”
The current Covid-19 pandemic has drawn many references to the great flu pandemic of 1918. One of the natural experiments that emerged from that event is how different measures adopted by different cities led to significantly different outcomes, with those taking action more quickly effectively flattening the curve and having better outcomes than those that delayed doing so. While multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions such as reducing contacts among people were effective in reducing transmission of the virus, relaxation of those restrictions also resulted in renewing the spread of the virus.
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