The Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran was always on shaky ground. Many of its features were ambiguously phrased and depended upon conditional factors and careful sequencing of actions by the US, Israel, and Iran. The one thing that seemed to be definite was the full ending of the US naval blockade and the removal US forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days, and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. The US also said that it will immediately “issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.” While Iran committed to opening the Strait, it openly declared that it would start charging tolls after 60 days and since this did not create any pushback from the US, one assumes that this will be the new normal. So one result of Trump’s war is that Iran will be permanently charging tolls where there had been none before. What a great negotiator Trump is!

The entire MOU is like a chain of dominoes that need to be toppled in exact sequence for it to be a success. Israel was always the weak link in the sequence because of the very first item in the MOU that said:

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

Israel did not like this deal because it does not want to be constrained in any way in its aggressive ambitions and so it was no surprise that it continued its bombardment of Lebanon in order to kill the deal. Israel knocked the very first domino askew making the rest inactive. And so today Iran shut down the Strait again.

Iran has said it is closing the strait of Hormuz after waves of Israeli strikes in Lebanon in a move that threatens to derail the fragile interim peace deal with the US, signed just days ago.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned ships not to approach the strategic waterway, which before the war carried a fifth of global oil and liquid gas supplies, citing what it called Israeli crimes in Lebanon and a US violation of commitments to establish a ceasefire there.

It was unclear if the threat had been carried out, or if it would jeopardise talks in Switzerland scheduled for Sunday that were supposed to start the process of turning the current interim agreement between the US and Iran signed this week into a more detailed deal covering Iran’s nuclear programme.

Washington denied the strait, which Iran is required to keep open under the new deal, has been closed. “Iran does not control ‌the strait ‌of Hormuz,” US Central Command spokesperson ‌Navy Capt Tim Hawkins told Reuters. “Traffic continues to flow, and US forces are monitoring the situation to ensure ‌this remains the case.”

What Trump will do now in response is anybody’s guess. He has few options other than start bombing again. Maybe he hopes for a distraction by drawing attention to trivialities and that his absurd charge that the Reflecting Pool fiasco was an act of vandalism will create the necessary diversion, aided by dark speculations from some acolytes that there was a conspiracy by the Deep State to introduce algae and thus sabotage the pool.

Tim Walz summed it up the pool mess well:

Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor who ran against Trump and JD Vance as the running mate of Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, wrote on X, formerly Twitter: “Found an imaginary problem, said only they could fix it, didn’t listen to experts, hired buddies who grifted millions, failed miserably, bragged how great it went. The entire Trump presidency in a nutshell.”