The last few days have seen the spectacle of Trump yet again announcing that a peace deal with Iran has been reached. He has said this about 40 times before so one can be excused for being skeptical. This time is different as even the Iranians said that a ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ had been arrived at and would be signed on Friday, making the claim more plausible. The details of the agreement were leaked from the US side and CNN published what it claimed was the text of the 14-point agreement. As is often the case, these things are deliberately leaked in order to gauge the feedback so that claims can be walked back if necessary.

Iran has agreed to re-open the Strait of Hormuz for traffic with no charge for 60 days, and promised not to “procure or develop nuclear weapons” and to allow the IAEA back into the country. The latter had been part of the JCPOA negotiated earlier that Trump scrapped.

As for sanctions, the US has agreed to “terminate all sanctions” both its own unilateral ones and the multilateral ones. The US and its partners will also “develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development” of Iran. The MOU also states that the “US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.” and the US “undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU.” The US also”undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.”

Many of the details are to be determined within the 60-day period following the signing but as I read it, it looks like the Iranians have got much of what they wanted in return for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz

But there is a big shadow over the deal and that is Israel and Lebanon. The very first point off the MOU states:

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

Although Israel is not named, it is clearly implied in the ‘allies’ phrasing. But as Alex Nguyen writes, it is not clear if Netanyahu will go along with this and what Trump will do if he does not.

Israel, meanwhile, has reportedly been denied access to the text of the US-Iran agreement, and on Monday, Netanyahu vowed to ignore the agreement and continue to occupy Lebanon “for as long as necessary.”

If Israel—or any of the other countries involved—do not comply with the agreement, then its next thirteen points will not hold. It doesn’t matter whether the US is actually genuine in its commitment to respect Iran’s sovereignty, lift all of its sanctions, and source at least $300 billion in investment to fund rehabilitation and economic development in Iran. That’s assuming Trump doesn’t simply walk back his commitments, particularly if the US doesn’t get an answer it likes on its demands around the country’s nuclear capabilities.

Trump released the text of the MOU earlier today and spoke to the press about it.

The Trump administration has released the text of its 14-point agreement with Iran, claiming it delivered a “major win” for the United States – even as it made significant political and financial concessions to Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz and prevent a “worldwide depression”.

In extraordinary remarks on Wednesday, Donald Trump went from threatening Iran with a new wave of attacks to suggesting that Iran had basic rights to enrich uranium for civilian use, that he would not pressure Tehran to abandon its ballistic missiles program and that the US was “going to have to give back” billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.

Those remarks, as well as the full text of the agreement – which was hailed by Hezbollah as a “great victory” by Hezbollah’s chief Naim Qassem – are likely to fuel anger in Israel and among hardliners in the Republican party who had urged Trump not to make a deal with Tehran.
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Trump also sounded a conciliatory note on returning frozen assets to Iran, a stipulation of the Obama administration’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that he had attacked in 2015.

“We have taken a lot of their money,” Trump told reporters. “It’s not our money, it’s their money, and we froze it at a certain point in time. I guess we’re going to have to give it back, you know, if we didn’t give it back, nobody would ever invest in the dollar again.”

The problem with any deal involving Trump is that his word cannot be trusted and that he may ignore the deal on a whim depending on what response he gets.

As of June 10, about 3,500 people in Iran and 3,700 people in Lebanon have been killed. Any relief for the long-suffering people of that region is to be welcomed.