Back in the days of the Vietnam war, there came to be something known as the Five O’Clock Follies, a term derisively used by reporters attending the daily briefings by the military where they would be told how wonderfully everything was going and how the enemy was bring crushed, when the reporters knew full well that the US was bogged down in a never-ending war that was causing many US casualties. That hiding of the truth recurred during the Iraq war as well and is surfacing now with Iran. It seems to be an inevitable consequence when wars drag on much longer than anticipated and casualties mount.

American presidents, especially in their second terms when things are not going well for therm, love to go to war. It his usually a sure-fire way of shoring up public support and wrapping themselves up with patriotic fervor. But that only works if the wars are short-lived or they do not have many casualties. People seem to be willing to accept massive death and destruction of ordinary people at the receiving end of US weaponry, however unjustified, but get upset when US troops start experiencing casualties. So nowadays presidents use aerial warfare with bombing campaigns and drone strikes, forfeiting the need to put in ground troops with all its risks.

In the current war against Iran, we mainly hear reports of what the US has done to Iran and very little about the retaliation. Given that we are now entering the sixth week and also given how much Trump lies about everything, it should be no surprise that The Intercept reports that the administration is hiding the true number of casualties.

The downing of two combat planes and the destruction of an expensive surveillance plane suggests that Trump’s claims of unchallenged air supremacy are not true.

The destruction of a US Air Force E-3 Sentry aircraft in an Iranian strike on a Saudi Arabia air base could damage US abilities to spot incoming Iranian threats at distance, analysts say.

Dramatic images of the wrecked aircraft, geolocated by CNN, show its tail broken off and its distinct rotating radar dome –– a critical part of the airborne warning and control system, or AWACS –– on the ground at the Prince Sultan Air Base.

The loss of the AWACS is “a serious blow to (US) surveillance capabilities,” said CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton, a former US Air Force colonel who has flown on the aircraft.
…

Analysts on Monday questioned how the US allowed the E-3 to become vulnerable to Iranian attack.

“Extraordinary measures are often taken to protect it from hostile enemy fire while in-flight. Sometimes it receives fighter escorts and is never allowed to overfly hostile territory in order to keep it safe,” said Leighton.

The immense power of the US military makes this a form of asymmetric warfare, where the US has dominance of the air and can act like a bully, threatening nations with massive destruction if they do not kowtow to them. This suits Trump, who clearly has the temperament of a bully, along with the associated feelings of insecurity and inadequacy. This is why his advisors apparently feed him a daily diet of the US blowing things up to make him happy.

But Iran also can wage asymmetric warfare by using its many cheap drones that they use to keep hitting targets, while also depleting the US and Israeli stockpiles of expensive interceptors. This may be why Trump seems to be so anxious to end the war within the next week or two, because the number of interceptors may be running low.

Trump has been all over the place about the Strait of Hormuz where the flow of shipping has been greatly reduced, one day saying that he does not care at all about it and if other countries care they should open it themselves, to the next day threatening massive bombing if Iran does not open it.

Mines are another form of asymmetric warfare that is available to the Iranians. That country has an estimated 5,000 mines or more that are cheap to manufacture ,and 1,000 miles of coastline that it can use to send out mines in small craft boats that look like fishing boats. Insurers are very risk averse and are not going to insure ships unless there is almost zero chance of those ships beings hit, and without insurance, ships will not enter the region.

But the US decommissioned its fleet of Middle East minesweepers last year

The USS Devastator, USS Dextrous, USS Gladiator and USS Sentry — which were all stationed in Bahrain in the Middle East — were put to pasture in 2025 after each serving for over 30 years, leaving only four remaining minesweepers in the U.S. Navy fleet.

Those remaining Avenger-class minesweepers are currently forward deployed to the U.S. 7th Fleet at U.S. Fleet Activities Sasebo, Japan.

The minesweepers were to be replaced with new Littoral Combat Ships that possess anti-mine capabilities. But these new ships have never been tested in combat. In addition, some of these new ships had been moved to the Pacific.

The U.S. Navy Independence class Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara, which are configured for minesweeping duties, have appeared in port in Malaysia. Both of these ships were last known to be forward-deployed in the Middle East, having arrived in Bahrain in the past year or so to take the place of a group of now-decommissioned Avenger class mine hunters. Now, as Iranian attacks on commercial ships have caused a virtual halt to maritime traffic through the highly strategic Strait of Hormuz, these ships have emerged thousands of miles away.

Apparently the UK has retained its minesweeping capabilities so Trump, after ridiculing UK’s prime minister Keir Starmer and denigrating its navy, may have to go and beg them for help.

(I hope Marcus Ranum over at stderr, who knows way more about military stuff than I do, will correct any glaring missteps in my attempt at military analysis.)

This feeling of impotence and frustration over the inability to clear the Strait may be what led to Trump’s unhinged, profanity-laced rant yesterday, where he issued yet another threat.

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

We have not as yet reached the high levels of absurdity that characterized the Five O’Clock Follies in Vietnam. But as the war drags on, we may see it approach those levels as Trump tries desperately to put a good face on his failures.