While Trump has been vacillating over whether there is an imminent peace deal or whether he will resume bombing, there clearly have been ongoing negotiations. What has been lacking in US media are details about what the deal may contain, other than vague statements that Trump has denounced as false because it seems like he has gained little. Trump has made at least 40 claims that a deal is imminent and he is such a liar that it is hard to take seriously anything he says. But Drop Site News has been monitoring Iranian media and they have published what the Iranians see as the framework of the proposed deal.
A number of terms in the memorandum of understanding (MOU) have been reported on by Iranian state media, although the details have yet to be finalized and have not been officially confirmed by Tehran or Washington. They include:
- A permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
- Lifting of the U.S. naval blockade within 30 days.
- Commitments from the U.S. not to expand its military presence in the region.
- Sixty days of negotiations to reach a final agreement “based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of” sanctions.
- Reopening the strait of Hormuz within 30 days “with Iranian arrangements.”
- Final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran’s frozen funds, the suspension of oil sanctions and the lifting of the naval blockade. “Discussions about Iran’s missile program and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda,” IRNA reported.
- The 60-day period will address three issues left unresolved in the current MOU: the continuation of Iran’s peaceful nuclear program, the lifting of sanctions, and a mechanism for compensating Iran for its losses.
- “If Tehran decides to sign the memorandum, some of its frozen funds will be released immediately, and the rest gradually,” IRNA reported.
- The question of U.S. sanctions will reportedly be adjudicated during the 60-day negotiating period.
- The memorandum contains no Iranian commitments on the nuclear issue and no U.S. commitment to lift sanctions.
Iran clarifies Hormuz control in light of the deal: Iran’s official state news agency released a statement stressing that “contrary to what is being circulated by Western media, Iran will not commit to relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz.”
As far as I can see, Trump has gained almost nothing from his reckless war and indeed has given up a lot of what had been painstakingly negotiated and laid out in the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ) negotiated between Iran and China, France, Russia, the U.K., U.S., and Germany in 2015 during the Obama administration.
Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to constrain its nuclear program by limiting fuel cycle activities that could lead to the production of weapons-grade uranium or plutonium. The JCPOA restricted the number and type of centrifuges in operation, the level of uranium enrichment, and the size of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Key facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Arak were repurposed for civilian uses such as medical and industrial research. Iran agreed to accept more intrusive IAEA monitoring measures of its fuel-cycle related activities. In exchange for complying with these restrictions, Iran received relief from nuclear-related sanctions imposed by the United Nations, the EU, and the United States, but many U.S. sanctions unrelated to the nuclear issue—targeting Iran’s missile program, support for militant groups, and human rights record—remained in place, limiting the economic effect of sanctions relief. The agreement also set a timetable to lift the UN arms embargo, contingent on Iran’s continued compliance with civilian nuclear commitments.
Trump summarily repudiated that agreement in 2018, for no obvious reason other than because Obama had been president then.
The agreement took effect on 20 January 2016. It was criticized and opposed by Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iranian principlists, and the Republican Party in the United States.
The United States withdrew from the pact in 2018, imposing sanctions under its maximum pressure campaign. In a symbolic response, members of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly burned the text of JCPOA in the Assembly. The sanctions applied to all countries and companies doing business with Iran and cut it off from the international financial system, rendering the nuclear deal’s economic provisions null. On 18 October 2025, in the aftermath of the Twelve-Day War, Iran officially announced the termination of the agreement after 10 years.
If what Iranian media is reporting is anywhere close to what the final deal is, one can see why Trump is not revealing his own version at the moment. He has to find a way to spin it as being better that the JCPOA and that is going to take some doing.
The other shoe is gonna drop next time he finds himself sitting on the pot with his phone logged into Truth Social. The man is incapable of making any decision that sticks. Not sure that’s a bad thing.
I wish Trump would pull one of his rather common strategies: washing his hands of a situation, letting it get settled any old way, and declaring victory.
Perhaps he thinks that this one has gone too far and that people would notice that he hasn’t won, he’s lost? Everyone already knows that he’s lost, but, of course, he won’t admit that to himself.
I did think, though, that there was no failure that he couldn’t turn into a victory in his own head. Make himself believe. That’s what matters, so I wish he’d get around to it. I don’t, in fact, see much of any other way that this could end?
Yes @garnetstar, Orange Turd wants nothing more than to wash his hands of the whole, tawdry, mess. The turd is desperately looking for someone to blame it on. But his usual threadbare excuses can’t, won’t, make any difference to such a colossal fuck-up. Whatever deal he signs will cause such an outcry that even the magats will sit up and take notice, and that is his absolute worst-case scenario. Beware the cornered rat.
What is noteworthy is how many key issues in that MOU weren’t really addressed.
They are just kicking the can down the road.
Here are a few.
The big one is Iran’s “peaceful” nuclear program.
A huge amount of nuclear power technology is dual use, for both power reactors and nuclear bombs.
You need for most power reactors, enriched uranium. Which is done with those centrifuges.
Nuclear fuel can be reprocessed to get plutonium which can be used for fuel or weapons.
They are going to talk about lifting economic sanctions.
Nothing new here. They’ve been talking about that for a few decades now.
Compensating Iran for it’s losses.
Not going to happen at least from the USA.
This is more like a cease fire and return to the status quo before we started a poorly thought out war of choice.
I said it a long time ago when Trump canceled the Obama agreement and started threatening Iran again.
Trump is making the Iranian’s reasons for developing nuclear weapons from an option to a necessity.
No one attacks nations with nuclear weapons. Ask North Korea or Israel how that works. Or Ukraine, which gave up its nuclear weapons for US security guarantees and look how well that worked out for them.
It isn’t quite that simple but for sure, nations think long and hard about attacking a country with nuclear weapons.
After the recent Iranian history, I’m sure they are thinking long and hard about starting their bomb making programs up again.
The main reason I can see that the Iranians haven’t developed nuclear weapons is MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction.
I’m sure the day after they tested a nuclear weapon, the Saudis and Gulf states would start their nuclear bomb programs.
It is what India and Pakistan did and for the same reasons.
Just because someone finally (sensibly) copied Al Jazeera doesn’t mean it’s any more true about what the end result will be. It’s still a wishlist.
The programs haven’t ‘started’. I believe it is reasonable to suppose by inference from what knowledge is publicly available that the Saudis have at least one nuke by now.
And, already this morning Israel has bombed Beirut.
I’m sure that’ll please the Iranians and move the negotiations forward.
Do you think, @file thirteen, that Netanyahu might make a good enough scapegoat for Trump to blame the entire mess on? Would that be enough to satisfy the MAGAs that Trump is blameless?
And, of course, Netanyahu is eagerly helping that on by his recent actions, as @acuah says.
@garnetstar, you would think Netenyahu was an obvious scapegoat but that won’t happen… yet. I do note that Israel has ignored all “ceasefires” so far. I think the most plausible way it could happen would be if Israel were to keep attacking despite the peace deal (which I don’t believe has had its details released, but Iran would never agree to terms that allowed Israeli action to continue) until Trump got so pissed off with being made to look stupid (hah) that he finally threatened to withdraw US aid to Israel.
With the rabid Israel lobby in the US, the Orange Turd has to be sorely provoked to do that, and it’s a very un-US, very un-Republican thing and may never happen, even though it’s an empty threat: the US will continue to pump millions of dollars into the Israeli war machine in perpetuity in the forlorn hope to win the middle east, and Netenyahu knows that but it would still spell his end politically.
Anyway, a peace deal has reportedly been agreed, so now all sides can go hard out on spinning it as a win for them. Whatever is in it, the strait of Hormuz will open again and that’s all everyone else cares about. There wasn’t much alternative. I do predict a lot of people (US hardliners and Iran hardliners) will be furious though.
raven @4 I don’t think there will be a return to the previous status quo, Iran seems pretty adamant it will be imposing tolls for going through the Straight of Hormuz once it reopens, and it would be one way within it’s control to recoup the costs of the war.