Even as his poll numbers nationally sink to historically low values, Trump’s grip on the Republican base seems to be as strong as ever. We can see this in the way that he was able to have his acolytes defeat well-established incumbents in primaries. He had done this on Sunday in Louisiana where incumbent senator Bill Cassidy lost his primary and yesterday we saw seven-term incumbent congressman Thomas Massie lose his race in Kentucky. In addition to Trump, the Israel lobby also poured money into the race against Massie. Trump’s next target is incumbent senator John Cornyn in Texas, where Trump has endorsed scandal-plagued Ken Paxton in the May 26th primary.

Trump has undoubtedly been successful in getting loyal cult members to win their primary races against anyone who displeases him, even if that displeasure is caused by the perception that the person is insufficiently servile to him or their rival is more servile. This was the case with Cassidy and Cornyn who were hardly rebels. In fact Cassidy was the deciding vote that enabled nut job Robert Kennedy Jr to become secretary of health and human services, arguably the worst person to ever serve in that important position.

Democrats are hoping that this is a case where Trump wins the battle but loses the war, the war being the general election in November. They are hoping that by nominating more extreme candidates, Republicans are opening a window of opportunity for their candidates to have a shot at winning those strongly Republican seats. This fear is shared by the Republican establishment.

Republican senators reacted angrily on Tuesday to President Trump’s decision to endorse Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, in the state’s Senate primary runoff, warning that his snub of the incumbent Senator John Cornyn could risk the seat and the party’s fight to keep its majority.

Heading into their weekly G.O.P. luncheon not long after Mr. Trump posted his choice on social media, many Senate Republicans appeared stunned and livid as they learned the news, which dealt a serious blow to Mr. Cornyn, who has served for more than two decades.
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Senator Lisa Murkowski, the Alaska Republican whose independent streak has often angered the president, said that she was “supremely disappointed” by Mr. Trump’s decision.

Then she went a step further, saying that the president’s endorsement of Mr. Paxton, a scandal-plagued conservative firebrand, could cost Republicans what had been considered a safe Senate seat.

“I think that this puts that seat in jeopardy,” she told reporters.

I would not be too sanguine about this. There is no doubt that Trump will go on a tear as the general election approaches, trying to rev up the base sufficiently to increase their participation and offset the expected losses among independent voters and those Republicans who have soured on him

However, their losses might free up the defeated candidates to take a more independent line in the present congress, now that they have little to lose.

Both Mr. Cassidy and Mr. Cornyn had engaged in political contortions to appease Mr. Trump and win his endorsement. But just days after his loss, Mr. Cassidy, whose 2021 vote to convict Mr. Trump of inciting an insurrection precipitated his break from the president, has displayed a more independent streak.

On Tuesday, Mr. Cassidy, who was greeted with a loud standing ovation from his fellow Republicans inside the luncheon, said that he would vote against a bill to fund immigration enforcement operations if it included security money tied to Mr. Trump’s White House ballroom project.

If Mr. Cornyn were to lose his primary, Mr. Trump would face the prospect of at least three lame duck senators more willing to buck his demands. Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, decided to retire last year after Mr. Trump threatened to back a challenger.

Again, I would not be too sanguine about this. It is hard to get up off the floor when you have prostrated yourself before the Dear Leader for so long. Furthermore, they may not wish to jeopardize their chances of obtaining lucrative jobs after leaving congress.