The first debate between Joe Biden and serial sex abuser and convicted felon Donald Trump (SSACFT) will be held on Thursday from 6:00-7:30 pm (Eastern Time) in Atlanta, GA in the studios of CNN that is hosting the debate. It is not clear if CNN is only streaming it on its own cable channels. If so, since I do not have cable TV nor do I subscribe to CNN, I will not be able to watch it live and will have to see it later when (if?) it is streamed online.

We are currently in the familiar game of setting expectations. Each side will of course claim victory whatever happens but beating expectations is one important metric that is used and is easier to do if each side sets a low bar for their own person and a high bar for the opponent.

SSACFT’s team and their right-wing echo chamber have had to do some serious contortions because I think that they really are afraid of what the debate might show. For the longest time they have been portraying Biden as doddering, drooling, and senile. But that hurt them when he turned in a feisty State of the Union speech and so now, fearing that this will happen again, they have started repeating the mantra that he was on drugs then and will be so again. There is zero evidence for any of this but that has not prevented them from spreading lies before on any number of issues so why stop now?

They are also doing the time-honored tactic of ‘working the refs’, claiming that the two CNN moderators are heavily biased against SSACFT so as to pressure them to grant him more leeway if and when he goes off the rails. The right-wing echo chamber has already been blanketing the media with how biased CNN is, without explaining that if they really believed this, why SSACFT agreed to have them sponsor the debate at all. The moderators will have to plan how to deal with SSACFT without seeming to be too heavy-handed.

Biden’s team has made no secret of the fact that he is taking this debate seriously and is preparing for it by reading briefing books on issues and practicing with aides. This is to be expected since he is a policy wonk and this is what wonks do.

SSACFT’s side has tried to claim that he is not preparing at all and will wing it. I do not believe this and think that this just another way of setting low expectations for him. I think he is preparing but not the way that Biden is because he is too lazy and unfocused to actually study issues. Instead, he is probably just rehearsing the lies that constitute his greatest hits that get a good response at his rallies. His advisors may try to get him to curb his enthusiasm for his more deranged claims about windmills, birds, sharks, and toilets, and limit himself to false claims about immigration, the economy, inflation, and crime.

In terms of actual macroscopic indicators, the numbers on all those issues favor Biden. The number of people seeking to cross at the border is coming down. The economy is doing well in that unemployment has come down sharply since 2020 and has stabilized at low levels of about 4%, and hiring levels are high, wages are rising faster than inflation, and the stock market (the index that the wealthy care most about) is at record levels. Violent crime has been steadily decreasing for some time now.

Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2022, with large decreases in the rates of robbery (-74%), aggravated assault (-39%) and murder/nonnegligent manslaughter (-34%). It’s not possible to calculate the change in the rape rate during this period because the FBI revised its definition of the offense in 2013.
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The FBI data also shows a 59% reduction in the U.S. property crime rate between 1993 and 2022, with big declines in the rates of burglary (-75%), larceny/theft (-54%) and motor vehicle theft (-53%).

Using the BJS statistics, the declines in the violent and property crime rates are even steeper than those captured in the FBI data. Per BJS, the U.S. violent and property crime rates each fell 71% between 1993 and 2022.

But SSACFT does not care for numbers (or indeed reality) and will instead bring out this or that anecdote that feeds into his supporters paranoid fears. He will also outright lie and Biden will have to have a strategy to combat this. Trying to fact-check SSACFT in real time is almost impossible because the lies come so think and fast. Biden might be better served by being dismissive by using put downs that emphasize what a liar SSACFT is.

It is also the case that many people are swayed more by their feelings than by data and those feelings are influenced by the media (which tends to focus on bad news) and by personal anecdotes than by macro-statistics, especially if the anecdote reinforces negative perceptions, since bad experiences have a bigger emotional impact than good ones. (“What do you mean that inflation is down? Have you seen the price of eggs?” and “How can you say crime is down? Just last week my neighbor was mugged.”) It is less likely that someone will say “The economy must be great because my child got a good job.”

The real question is how disciplined SSACFT will be. He is notoriously reckless in his rhetoric but at the same time he has a level of cunning and sense of self-preservation that may make him realize that trying to project a more sober image may help him with the kinds of viewers who watch debates. I think that Biden will try to good him into saying things that are dangerous waters for Republicans such as abortion, contraception, the Affordable Care Act, and social security.

Biden needs to be prepared for two scenarios: that SSACFT will be restrained while spewing his lies, or that he becomes unhinged and starts ranting.