What a beautiful photo!

What a disaster! Nature is contemplating the consequences of a major volcanic eruption.

Geological evidence from volcanic deposits over the past 60,000 years suggests a 1-in-6 probability of a massive eruption occurring this century.

If that happened in the next 5 years, the costs would be colossal. In an extreme scenario, the economic impacts would cost more than US$3.6 trillion in the first year and $1.2 trillion more over subsequent years, owing to the effects of extreme weather, reduced crop yields and food instability, according to the insurance and reinsurance market Lloyd’s of London, which assessed these risks in May.

The article discusses the effect of global warming, and how climate change may worsen the effects of a major eruption. We seem to be doing exactly what would amplify the consequences.

Modelling of past eruptions can tell us a lot. But, in a hotter world, many physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, in oceans and on land will also change. For example, global warming heats the lower atmosphere and cools the stratosphere. Alteration of atmospheric layers will affect how volcanic plumes spread and how high they reach.

Changes in circulation patterns will also affect how aerosols spread and grow. For example, faster air flows from the tropics to higher latitudes, which are already observed as a consequence of warming, hamper the coagulation of aerosols from eruptions in the tropics. Smaller aerosols scatter sunlight more efficiently and cool Earth’s surface more.

The oceans will also be affected. Global warming increases ocean stratification that then acts as a barrier to mixing of deep and shallow waters. Volcanic eruptions might thus disproportionately cool the upper layers of water and the air masses above the ocean.

Are we prepared for the consequences? No, we are not prepared. I welcome the appearance of volcano-deniers joining the climate-change-deniers to make everything a little bit worse.

As well as happening in a warmer climate, the next Tambora-like eruption will occur in a more interconnected world that supports eight times the population of 1815. Agricultural systems would suddenly face lower levels of sunlight, cooler weather and altered moisture patterns — all in close succession. Outsized societal impacts might follow.

For example, the 1991 Pinatubo eruption resulted in a 9% reduction in global maize (corn) yields and a 5% reduction in wheat, rice and soya-bean production. Crop failures from a more massive eruption would hit global breadbasket regions simultaneously — China, the United States, India, Russia and Brazil, which together produce most of the world’s wheat, maize, rice and soya beans. Loss of harvests would disrupt global food security and supply chains, potentially triggering unrest, conflict and migration.

One bit of optimistic news: I immediately thought of the Yellowstone supervolcano.

Currently, the annual probability of a volcanic eruption at Yellowstone is estimated to be around 0.001 percent, which Stelten said is “probably an overestimate for the short term.”

There are no signs of an impending eruption, as the magmatic system beneath Yellowstone is mostly solid.

Whew. Nice to know one catastrophe is unlikely, we’ve had enough of them lately.

In the olden times, before technology, at this time of year I’d normally be hearing the geese honking and I’d have to look up to see the birds flying overhead. No more! I can just check Birdcast and see how the annual migration is going. Much more data than I can gather with just my eyes.

Check out your county! It’s the only way to know what the birds are up to!

The other day, when I was taking a tour of the UMM EcoStation, I learned that they are currently leasing a few acres to a local farmer, but that there were restrictions on what he could plant. No corn! No planting corn in our ecologically conscious field station, because corn fields get soaked in neonicotinoids, a potent pesticide.

Of course, as we returned home, we drove past immense fields of corn everywhere.

Neonicotinoids are great for killing insects — they’re a nerve poison that binds to acetylcholine receptors, found in the central nervous system of insects, triggering excessive activity and killing them with overstimulation. It kills bees and butterflies and fireflies, those charming and charismatic creatures everyone loves, but also flies and spiders, which no one seems to care much about. Well, except maybe me and weirdo entomologists.

It’s been a poor summer for spiders, but then, I’ve noticed them declining in numbers for years. This summer, though, it was particularly obvious — in previous years, my lawn has been dotted with little tents, the webs of grass spiders, that are vividly obvious in the morning dew. This year…I’ve seen a handful, and some mornings, there are none at all.

Orb weavers haven’t been common around here. We’ve looked at the local horticulture garden, and aside from the rare tetragnathid, they’ve been mostly absent. It’s getting a bit creepy. Maybe you’re not as fond of spiders as I am, but you know you’re in trouble when levels of the food chain start dropping out.

It’s not just me. When we spot one or two monarch butterflies now, it’s noteworthy, and my wife will drag me out to the garden to see. Years ago we’d see huge flocks of them coating trees. It’s worldwide; butterfly populations in the UK are down.

Richard Fox, head of science at Butterfly Conservation, said: “The previous lowest average number of butterflies per count was nine in 2022, this latest figure is 22% lower than that, which is very disturbing. Not just that, but a third of the species recorded in the Big Butterfly Count have had their worst year on record, and no species had their best. The results are in line with wider evidence that the summer of 2024 has been very poor for butterflies.

“Butterflies are a key indicator species; when they are in trouble we know that the wider environment is in trouble too. Nature is sounding the alarm call. We must act now if we are to turn the tide on these rapid declines and protect species for future generations.”

Crashes in flying insect populations including beetles and wasps have been widely observed during the summer after a prolonged wet and cold first half of the season.

Weather is part of the reason — we also had a weirdly wet early summer here in Minnesota, and our trees are showing signs of stress. This isn’t the only stressor in our environment, and it’s rare to be able to blame extinctions on a single source. When you get multiple factors harming a population, that’s when you get an extinction vortex.

There is something going on here. You should be afraid. I am.

The exception: the sunchokes have rocketed up to 3 meters high, heavy with blossoms.

The local pollinators are pigging out on these flowers right now.

It’s not looking good for Florida today.

• Helene is currently a category 2 hurricane with wind speeds of 100 mph. It is expected to make landfall on Florida’s Big Bend this evening as at least a category 3 hurricane, bringing the risk of devastating damage.
• The storm was 320 mph south-west of Tampa as of 8 a.m. ET, traveling north-east at 12 mph.
• A storm surge warning is in place for almost the entirety of Florida’s west coast, where surging waters described as “unsurvivable” could reach as high as 20 feet in places.
• Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in place across coastal areas of southern Florida. The National Hurricane Center said: “Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.”
• A state of emergency has been declared in 61 of Florida’s 67 counties and several are under evacuation orders.

If you’re in Florida (or the states above it), quit reading this stupid blog and get yourself to someplace safe.

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The Waffle Houses are closing! Time to panic!

This opinion piece is so on-brand for the New York Times: “I Swore Off Air-Conditioning, and You Can, Too”. We’re facing a serious threat from global warming, so let’s tell all the little people to get off their butts and fix it rather than addressing the systemic contributions of capitalism and the petrochemical industry.

Most of those savings were likely the result of using fans instead of air-conditioning. We also kept other appliances and devices turned off as much as possible because they, too, generate heat. Dishwashers are double trouble, putting out heat and humidity. We don’t have one.

You can’t unplug the refrigerator, of course, but we keep ours set for just under 40 degrees, the highest safe temperature, according to the Food and Drug Administration. And we dry our laundry on the clothesline out back.

When it gets too hot, we lightly spray water on our arms, legs and faces; the water helps dissipate a lot of heat. A quick, cold shower or a little time spent with that all-American favorite, the lawn sprinkler, also can bring relief.

In summer we’ll spend as many of our at-home hours as we can outdoors, in the shady city park down the street or on our screened porch.

Well, fine. I agree with all that. We do many of those things, too — we’ve got an ’emergency air conditioner’ in the window of our bedroom that we’ve used for about a week this year, but otherwise, yes, we mainly get by on low-energy alternatives. I think it’s a good idea to be mindful about how our lives impact the environment, and turning off an appliance now and then is smart and helpful. But does this actually substantially offset the fact that we live in cities that are dependent on the automobile? Worse, we’re surrounded by pervasive marketing telling us to buy massive trucks, that we have to go to a mall with a gigantic parking lot to buy cheap plastic widgets we don’t need made in China, while wearing clothes from Shein that we’ll throw into a landfill next week. There are a lot of sensible changes we could make in our lifestyles that the New York Times would get in trouble with their advertisers if they started promoting them.

OK, here’s the Batagaika Crater in Siberia.

That’s a huge “retrogressive thaw slump”, a hole that is visible from space and is steadily growing as the permafrost thaws and its edges collapse. Here’s a drone photo of the slow-motion disaster:

Spectacular and horrifying.

Permafrost covers 15% of the land in the Northern Hemisphere and contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere.

One study estimated that permafrost thaw could emit as much planet-warming gases as a large industrial nation by 2100 if industries and countries don’t aggressively rein in their own emissions today.

How big is the contribution of this one feature in the landscape to climate change?

In a study published in the journal Geomorphology in June, researchers used satellite and drone data to construct 3D models of the megaslump and calculate its expansion over time.

They found that about 14 Pyramids of Giza’s worth of ice and permafrost had thawed at Batagay. The crater’s volume increases by about 1 million cubic meters every year.

“These values are truly impressive,” Alexander Kizyakov, the study’s lead author and a scientist at Lomonosov Moscow State University, told BI in an email.

“Our results demonstrate how quickly permafrost degradation occurs,” he added.

The researchers also calculated that the megaslump releases about 4,000 to 5,000 tons of carbon each year. That’s about as much as the annual emissions from 1,700 to 2,100 US homes’ energy use.

If only everyone in the USA would sprinkle a little water on their arms rather than turning on the air conditioner, we could compensate for that problem. Or better yet, think of all the energy you could save by cancelling your subscription to the NY Times!

Really, though, we need something more than these piecemeal token changes in individual behavior.

SpaceX has been poisoning the environment for years, and have shown a reckless disregard for the effects their launches have on local residents and wildlife, and have been guilty of dumping toxic materials in waters nearby.

SpaceX’s Starship launches at the company’s Starbase facility near Boca Chica, Texas, have allegedly been polluting the local environment for years, possibly in violation of the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Water Act. for years. The news arrives in an exclusive CNBC report on August 12, which cites internal documents and communications between local Texas regulators and the EPA

SpaceX’s fourth Starship test launch in June was its most successful so far—but the world’s largest and most powerful rocket ever built continues to wreak havoc on nearby Texas communities, wildlife, and ecosystems. And after repeated admonishments, reviews, and ignored requests, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) have had enough.

Don’t worry, though, Elon Musk is on the case. Here he is responding to a news report on his awful company.

CNBC sucks, Elon Musk tweeted in a reply to his company’s statement.

What this reminds me of is the bro who buys a bunch of illegal fireworks, heads down to the lake and blows stuff up and makes an obnoxious racket, and then leaves a mess of cardboard and paper and scorched debris to go back home and be an asshole to his neighbors.

It’s fine. I suggest that every state dump its garbage on Texas, they don’t care.