This is not February


According to the official date, it is. This is not what February in Minnesota should look like, though.

That’s what late March might look like, or better yet, April. Fog and naked trees and patches of dirty snow are not at all appropriate for this time of year.

Have I been dislocated to Kansas?

Comments

  1. Reginald Selkirk says

    Have I been dislocated to Kansas?

    Not sure. Try clicking your heels together three times while chanting, “There’s no place like home, there’s no place like home.”

  2. larpar says

    Way to jinx it, PZ.
    I just checked and saw this headline; Temps to plumet this weekend.
    After further investigation, turns out that plumet means going from way above average to a little above average.
    I take back the jinx accusation. : )

  3. weylguy says

    It’s also unbelievably rainy here is Southern California. Could it be due to climate change? Nah, say Republicans, we need to drill more oil and pump more CO2 into the atmosphere. Remember the old TV ad: “Some say CO2 is a pollutant. We call it life.” [Cue shot of cute white baby breathing]

  4. michaelvieths says

    Wow, you still have patches of dirty snow? I’m in the southwest metro and we’ve got nothing. Even those piles of dirty snow are more than I’ve had all winter.

  5. Walter Solomon says

    It’s short-sleeves and shorts weather here in Maryland. The weather is fickle though so it can be a surprise blizzard any day now.

  6. cgilder says

    We’re in Western Montana, and the high elevation snowpack levels are about half of normal. Any snow we do get at the lower elevations melts right away because other than the polar vortex week where we hung out in the negatives (farenheit), it’s been appallingly warm. The ski hills are barely open, and our spring snowmelt river flows are going to be abysmal. Late summer baseflow will be nonexistent in the smaller tributaries. Of course, we might get a 2022-style Yellowstone super-late-heavy-snow-then-crazy-atmospheric-river-rain-on-snow-event to make things spicy. It’s unlikely, but if I’ve learned anything about climate in the last several years, I’ve learned that stationarity is dead and things like “recurrence intervals” are only sorta-helpful at this point.

  7. birgerjohansson says

    After a very cold couple of weeks, north Sweden got very mild weather, but the snow is not melting…yet.
    The bare ground in PZs region provides opportunities for birds and other animals to scavenge for food, which is a plus.
    If you have bears, it is possible some will stop hibernating early.

  8. Artor says

    I remember February in Minnesota, visiting my grandparents in the 1970’s. There was 3 feet of snow on the ground, and I went sledding down the streets with my cousins.

  9. asclepias says

    There was a 3-day run here last week where I could go out and ride my bike no problem (avoiding some of the ice from the last snowstorm that remains in shady areas). On Saturday, I was walking dogs in the snow. We’ve got about 3 inches of really heavy, wet snow now (the kind I lived for when I was a kid), and a bunch of people who are too lazy/too sick, too disabled (hip or back problems) to shovel. The up and down temperatures are common, but 60 degrees at the end of January?

  10. asclepias says

    The first time after my bike accident (to wit, years ago) that we went to visit my grandparents in Wisconsin, I was very disappointed that it was raining. It was Thanksgiving, Mom had told us all about the snow of her childhood, and I wanted snow! (This was something like 1988 or 1989, fr reference.)

  11. brightmoon says

    It’s only been down to zero for about 1 week this winter. It snowed once and basically just dusted the ground with about an inch of snow . It was gone by the late afternoon . That was the so called blizzard that the weatherman was predicting . It’s been raining so I don’t think we’ll have a drought. It’s been hovering around 35F (2-3C) and hasn’t gotten any colder. The only concern I have is that a lot of trees here won’t break dormancy and as much as I hate cold weather, I’d hate that even more! Yes, I’m a bit of a tree hugger 🤷🏾‍♀️

  12. says

    Im with @5 and Im slightly north of of the TCs proper. Worried an actual Feb cold snap at this point will kill a ton of trees.

  13. wzrd1 says

    Reginald Selkirk @ 1, huh, I thought the quote was, “Auntie Em, Auntie Em, I promise I won’t do LSD again!”.
    I clearly recall that and wondering whyinhell I was inside of a picnic basket, looking for some lizard that’s odd.

    Saw flying insects here yesterday, the last of our snow piles are rapidly melting away. Soon enough, I’ll be buzzing my mop from my head, as I tend to grow my hair long in the winter to protect my radar dishes on the sides of my head.
    I’ll likely have my new boots fully broken in just in time to toss them into the closet until next winter.
    Of course, this being the Harrisburg, PA area, if one doesn’t like the weather, one needs only wait 10 minute and it’ll do something else. Saw all four seasons in the space of two hours. Started off like a nice, brisk fall morning, clouds rolled in and dumped two inches of snow on us, the sun came out and it went into the 80’s. I literally had men in my ambulance sitting next to each other, half with mild cold injuries, the other half with mild heat exhaustion. At least it didn’t anvil on us that day.

  14. StevoR says

    Temperature records have been smashed already :

    Weather historian Maximiliano Herrera has documented the temperature records set in recent days. He has described the warmth on X, formerly Twitter, as “exceptional,” “relentless,” “insane” and “never ending.” The following is a summary of some of the more notable records:

    Source : https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/01/25/record-warmth-earth-climate-europe/

    Sea Surface temperatures are literally at the point of going off the charts as folks can see for themselves here :

    https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

    If graphs could scream..

    The implications are beyond terrifying and the present reality of bushfires, floods, extreme temperature records falling, milder and warmer winters generally – except the disturbed jetstream has meandered out of its usual path – that Global Overheating (“warming”is toomild a word for it) is clear.

    Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf on X twitter (any typos mine – typing from off fb) :

    Did you know? A major new science report on Climate tipping points was published last month, produced by 200 researchers from 90 organisations in 26 countries. Here’s the key conclusion.
    Full report : https://global-tipping-points.org/

    (Section that follows in red background rectangle with rounded corners and white letters -ed.)

    THESE TIPPING POINTS POSE THREATS OF A MAGNITUDE NEVER BEFORE FACED BY HUMANITY

    These threats could materialise in the coming decades, and at lower levels of global warming than previously thought. They could be catastrophic, including global-scale loss of capacity togrow major staple crops. Triggering one Earth system tipping point could trigger another causing a domino effect of accelerating and unmanageable damage. Tipping points show that the overall threat posed by the climate and ecological crisis is far more severe than is commonly understood.

    This should be headline news and first prority for our national andgovts and international organisations but, well, here we are as a suppsoedly intelligent species. Living in a Mass Extinction Event that we are also causing and refusing to stop and try and take serious steps to prevent.

    We are in extremely serious trouble here and that’s an understatement.

  15. John Morales says

    Not exactly committal, is it, StevoR? Seems rather speculative, actually.

    These threats could materialise in the coming decades, and at lower levels of global warming than previously thought. They could be catastrophic, including global-scale loss of capacity togrow major staple crops. Triggering one Earth system tipping point could trigger another causing a domino effect of accelerating and unmanageable damage.

    That means they could not, obviously — else the word would have been ‘will’.

    Just saying.

  16. wzrd1 says

    John, if you stand in front of a target on an active rifle range, you could get hit by a bullet. Would you stand in front of that target?

  17. StevoR says

    @ ^ John Morales : That’s your first and main takeaway from what I posted above? Seriously? FFS.

  18. John Morales says

    Well, StevoR, not like there’s anything there that hasn’t been said before.

    wzrd1, heh. No need to stand in front of the target for that possibility.
    Here:

    The incident happened at 1:00 p.m. Wednesday, 27 Sept 2023 and sent shockwaves through the Queensland Police community. The Senior Constable, believed to be in his 30s, was acting as a supervisor as part of his requalification rifle supervisor training.

    According to Queensland Police reports, another officer participating in the training exercise discharged his firearm at a target downrange. Tragically, the bullet ricocheted off a metal pole surrounding the target, resulting in a small piece of shrapnel striking the Senior Constable on the right side of the neck.

    (https://carindalenews.com.au/index.php/qps-cop-seriously-injured-in-belmont-rifle-training/)

    Again: ‘could’ implies could not, else it would be ‘will’.
    It’s a possibility, not a certainty, at least in the mind of the writer.
    And neither of you disputed that, you merely got indignant that I noticed the prevarication present in that piece.

  19. StevoR says

    @19. John Morales : else the word would have been ‘will’.

    The other thing and point being made by the word choice here is that if we act and choose wisely and change what we are doing then its NOT inevitable. This is what could and very likely will happen unless we take serious Climate Action. The site linked does provide some alternatives and options so that the ‘coulds’ here are avoided.

  20. John Morales says

    Always interesting to see how experts react to non-experts’ perception of the science.

  21. Hemidactylus says

    Usually in my part of Florida we have a few times a year we get into the 30s or maybe one or two freeze watches. Don’t recall getting lower than somewhere in the low 40s so far this year, though February can get pretty cold (for us wussies).

    Hmmm.:
    https://www.noaa.gov/understanding-el-nino
    Part 2 of 4:

    In the winter, when El Niño impacts are felt strongest, it typically brings wetter than normal conditions across the southern part of the United States from central California to Florida and up the East Coast while warmer and drier than average conditions are typical for the Northern Tier of the U.S. to the Great Lakes.

    It has rained quite a bit off and on in Florida. PZ hasn’t notice as much snow? Warmer than usual?

    More:
    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-does-el-nino-influence-winter-precipitation-over-united-states

    Egads: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/01/will-la-nina-return-this-fall-the-tea-leaves-are-unusually-strong/

    I hates Fall La Ninas very much! Ramp up the tropics in the Atlantic.

  22. Hemidactylus says

    Some generalizations to be made for MN but it’s complicated:
    https://www.weather.gov/arx/strong_el_nino_temps

    While there is a strong signal for warmth during strong El Niños, precipitation can be highly variable across Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. During these same strong El Niño winters, Minnesota had their driest (0.84″ in 1930-31) and second driest (1.06 inches in 1957-58) winters along with their 15th (3.13″ in 1918-19) and 20th wettest (3.06″ in 1965-66) winters. Iowa saw their 2nd (1.28″ in 1930-31) and 3rd driest (5.34″ in 1982-83) winter along with their 10th wettest (4.79″ in 1972-73) winter. Finally, Wisconsin had their 3rd (1.61″ in 1930-31) and 5th driest (1.66″ in 1957-58) winters along with their 8th (5.04″ in 1982-83), 9th (4.77″ in 1965-66), and 14th wettest (4.77″ in 1972-73) winters.

    While seasonal snowfall tends to average up to 10 inches below normal in the Upper Mississippi River Valley during strong El Niños, up to a third of them have produced above normal snowfall. On average, there is around a 45 inch difference between the lowest and highest seasonal snowfall…so needless to say they can be quite variable.

    Plus:
    https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/el-nino-oct-2023.html

    So PZ’s observation may fit a typical strong El Nino year. That’s not to discount a definite trend of anthropogenic global warming over the years.

  23. says

    It’s been an incredibly mild winter in Edmonton. We barely got even a dusting of snow until January when the temperature plummeted from near constant above freezing days to a deep freeze for a couple of weeks with a lot of snow, and then it got back above freezing, into the low plus teens (C) so most of the snow is gone again.

    I’ve never seen one like this before.

  24. cag says

    Two dog pin worms named Kansas and Oklahoma suddenly are blinded by brilliant light. Oklahoma turns to Kansas and says “Well, Kansas, we’re not in Toto any more”.

  25. robro says

    We just had a huge storm in northern California (and southern California) with lots of rain, and unusually high winds with extensive power outages. (My power has been out for a couple of days.) However, I just checked the California snow pack status, which translates to water in the dry summer, and overall it’s about 75% of normal. The storms we’ve had this winter have tended to be warm, except for the last one which turned cooler the last day or so. I think that storm is still heading to Minnesota.