Power demand from air conditioning could soon exceed total power supply in the United States

I had hoped to have my next bit of science fiction out today, but it’s just not there yet, so here’s something else instead.

One of the most long-standing cases for acting on climate change is the simple fact that the sooner we act, the cheaper and easier it will be. The reality is that avoiding any cost is simply not an option. Extreme weather events, rising sea levels, damage to crops and infrastructure – climate change costs money, no matter how you look at it. By delaying action as long as we have, we’ve entered the age of endless recovery. Any action we take to deal with climate change will now be impeded by ongoing efforts to rebuild from damage already done.

Unfortunately, the cost increase goes beyond that. A big reason for why it’s in our best interest to take action is that there are limits to the temperatures humans can withstand. On our current trajectory, it’s likely that for at least some days out of the year, many parts of the world will be too hot for humans to survive very long without some external means of cooling. These days, that often means air conditioning, which is already a pretty energy-intensive process. As temperatures continue to rise, AC units will have to work harder to achieve the same cooling, and more people are going to need to rely on it to get by. In short, it’s very possible that the power demands of air conditioning will soon exceed the amount of power being generated in the United States:

Climate change will drive an increase in summer air conditioning use in the United States that is likely to cause prolonged blackouts during peak summer heat if states do not expand capacity or improve efficiency, according to a new study of household-level demand.

The study projected summertime usage as global temperature rises 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, finding demand in the United States overall could rise 8% at the lower and 13% at the higher threshold. The new study was published in Earth’s Future, AGU’s journal for interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants.

Human emissions have put the global climate on a trajectory to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the early 2030s, the IPCC reported in its 2021 assessment. Without significant mitigation, global temperatures will likely exceed the 2.0-degree Celsius threshold by the end of the century.

Previous research has examined the impacts of higher future temperatures on annual electricity consumption or daily peak load for specific cities or states. The new study is the first to project residential air conditioning demand on a household basis at a wide scale. It incorporates observed and predicted air temperature and heat, humidity and discomfort indices with air conditioning use by statistically representative households across the contiguous United States, collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in 2005-2019.

The new study projected changing usage from climate influence only, and did not consider possible population increases, changes in affluence, behavior or other factors known to affect air conditioning demand.

“We tried to isolate just the impact of climate change,” said Renee Obringer, an environmental engineer at Penn State University and lead author of the new study. “If nothing changes, if we, as a society, refuse to adapt, if we don’t match the efficiency demands, what would that mean?”

Technological improvements in the efficiency of home air conditioning appliances could supply the additional cooling needed to achieve current comfort levels after 2.0 degrees global temperature rise without increased demand for electricity, the new study found. Increased efficiency of 1% to 8% would be required, depending on existing state standards and the expected demand increase, with Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma on the high end.

“It’s a pretty clear warning to all of us that we can’t keep doing what we are doing or our energy system will break down in the next few decades, simply because of the summertime air conditioning,” said Susanne Benz, a geographer and climate scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, who was not involved in the new study.

Exceeding capacity

The heaviest air conditioning use with the greatest risk for overloading the power grid comes during heat waves, which also present the highest risk to health. Electricity generation tends to be below peak during heat waves as well, further reducing capacity, Obringer said.

Without enough capacity to meet demand, energy utilities may have to stage rolling blackouts during heat waves to avoid grid failure, like California’s energy providers did in August 2020 during an extended period of record heat sometimes topping 117 degrees Fahrenheit.

“We’ve seen this in California already — state power suppliers had to institute blackouts because they couldn’t provide the needed electricity,” Obringer said. The state attributed 599 deaths to the heat, but the true toll may have been closer to 3,900.

The consequences of cascading electrical grid failures are likely to impact already vulnerable populations, including low income, non-white and older residents, first, Obringer noted.

“When they say there’s going to be two weeks where you don’t have cooling on average — in reality, some people will have cooling. Disadvantaged people will have less cooling,” Benz said.

How long are we going to wait to take this seriously? How many people will have to suffer and die in the heat? We know what we need to do. We need to update the power grid. We need to invest in home energy efficiency, and in passive cooling wherever we can use it. We also need to have sources of power – like wind and solar – that don’t need to be shut down during heat waves, when the need for cooling can be a matter of life or death. As I’ve said before, science is a way for us to see what’s coming, but a warning is no good if it’s not heeded.

We are running out of time.


Thank you for reading. If you find my work interesting, useful, or entertaining, please share it with others, and please consider joining the group of lovely people who support me at patreon.com/oceanoxia. Life costs money, alas, and owing to my immigration status in Ireland, this is likely to be my only form of income for the foreseeable future, so if you are able to help out, I’d greatly appreciate it. The beauty of crowdfunding is that even as little as $1 per month (that’s like three pennies a day!) ends up helping a great deal if enough people do it. You’d be supporting both my nonfiction and my science fiction writing, and you’d get early access to some of the fiction and some other content.

Video: Your “Carbon Footprint” Is A Scam

The other day I shared a video on how “net zero” is a scam, and I think this is a good follow-up to that. This is absolutely a trick I fell for, and I grappled for a long time with the misguided belief that climate action was all about individuals “making better choices”.  I’ve got a longer piece on this in the works, but these two “scams” do a good job of illustrating how the shell game is played. Pollution, destruction, poisoning, blame – it’s all shifted onto society as a whole. It works because it’s not some nefarious plan, it’s just how all the incentives of our society are arranged. Some of that was there from the outset, as feudalism gave way to capitalism, and the aristocrats largely kept their wealth and power. Some of it was put in place when individuals with power pushed for changes to benefit themselves, and that paved the way for everyone else.

Some of it is propaganda convincing the masses that the true guilt lies within us, and we should either seek purity through asceticism, or just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Pollution, bio-indicators, and our crumbling foundations (also a big bug photo)

If you ever get a chance to hike a  stretch of the Appalachian Trail, you’ll find that the shelters all have “trail registers”. These are cheap notebooks where people mark down when they were at the shelter, and leave relevant notes. Sometimes you’ll see warnings of a bear that’s been showing up, or a Kevin Bacon sighting. Sometimes thru-hikers will leave notes for friends or acquaintances who’re behind them on the trail, and sometimes people get creative. I met one woman who would perform a rap at most shelters, and write the whole thing in the trail register.

Sometimes you come across something that seems a little… worrying.

Picture the scene, if you will. It’s early evening, and you’ve been hiking for several hours. The sun’s starting to get a bit lower in the sky, and the golden light is shimmering on the Housatonic to your right. Ahead to the left, you see a sign for the Stewart Hollow Brook lean-to, and you take the turn, glad you reached your day’s destination with plenty of daylight left.

You heave your pack into the lean-to, and sit on the edge, eating a mint-chocolate food bar, and listening to the wind and the birds. You wash your snack down with a swig of water, and lean over to grab the trail register.

Someone who passed you a week ago is now just a day ahead. There’s a liquor store that’ll give through hikers a free beer not too far away. And there’s –

-WARNING – DO NOT SLEEP ON THE GROUND HERE! Seriously don’t. There are these huge bugs that come out at night! Check your shoes!

-Holy shit I thought the other entries were joking but they’re not! They’re like some kind of alien bugs or something? They’ve got spikes and stuff all over them and pincers!

-Ridgerunner here – yes there are scary bugs, but they won’t hurt you. They’re just hellgramites

“Hellgramites”?

Like that doesn’t sound like some kind of alien parasite? Well, it’s just a name, so let’s see what they actually look like.

Image shows a hand carefully holding a large insect larva by its head. Its pincers can't reach the fingers, and its legs are flailing helplessly. Its abdomen is about as long as the hand is wide, with large, soft

“It’s just a Hellgramite”

Oh.

Well.

And not just one or two – in the evening and through the night, there’s a never-ending march of these things up from the river.

So, dear readers – what’s going on here?

Well, lots of things, but when I saw this phenomenon as a ridgerunner back in my college days, it put me in mind of a high school environmental science class I took. It was a well-designed course, looking back. We learned about stuff like water quality, industrial runoff, and so on, and we learned it by going out and testing the water, and visiting sewage treatment plants and papermills.

And we learned how to use benthic macroinvertebrates as pollution bioindicators. In plain speech, we learned how to learn about water quality by looking at the bugs that lived in the riverbed. There are many kinds of bugs and worms that live under the rocks and in the sand at the bottom of any river, and as with any community, they have different specializations, preferences, and chemical tolerances.

Hellgramites – also known as dobsonfly larvae – were one of the species we studied, and I have them lodged in my head as being “pollution tolerant”. I believe that assessment is an exaggeration – it’s probably better to say that compared to some other fly larvae that live on riverbeds, they’re more tolerant of moderate levels of pollution. We’re talking the kind of water rivers that have people fishing for food, but also have signs warning everyone not to eat more than one fish per month from that water.

The Housatonic, as I remember it, is a shallow and somewhat murky river that can smell a bit off on a hot day, and has a lot of brown algal growth over its stones. It was pretty, but I think I only swam in it on a couple occasions when the heat got to be too much. Like most rivers in the U.S., it suffered from various forms of runoff, and while I never actually studied its invertebrate community, I’m willing to bet it would have been possible to gauge where the river was at even without the ability to measure for specific chemicals.

A couple years later, I had graduated, and was working as property manager for the Earlham College biology department. The job involved a number of tasks, but one of them was helping with a turtle population survey for a nearby pond. The pond was located between a couple industrial parks, and had had a major fish kill in recent years. The biology and chemistry departments had a grant to investigate, and my end involved catching, measuring, and marking as close to every turtle in that pond as I could get. I never saw the final reports, but there was one finding that jumped out at us right away – we caught dozens of turtles, of three or four different species, but not a single one of them was younger than six years old.

Sure, you can guesstimate pollution levels by what bugs are or aren’t thriving, but in this case reproduction had just ended in that pond. That’s another level.

During my work as a curriculum writer, the team I was on spent a good amount of time on the idea of bioindicators, because we had students studying how climate change is affecting things like leaf-out and flowering times in plants.

All of these things – the bugs, the turtles, the plants – they’re like looking at a person’s skin to assess their health. How does the color compare to their normal complexion? Do they have wounds? Blisters? A rash? Are they clammy, or is their skin too dry? None of the symptoms are the underlying problem, but they’re all useful ways to get an idea for what’s going on.

What I haven’t fully connected, until recently, is that the solidity of our knowledge about bioindicators and the sheer number of examples that exist both indicate that humanity’s traces can be found everywhere.

It’s easy to talk about indicators and trends, but even though one can spend an entire career teaching the same lessons over and over again, things don’t just start over. They continue happening. Chemicals continue building up, because they continue being released. Ecosystems take one hit after another, and bit by bit, cracks form in the foundations.

The study concludes that chemical pollution has crossed a “planetary boundary”, the point at which human-made changes to the Earth push it outside the stable environment of the last 10,000 years.

Chemical pollution threatens Earth’s systems by damaging the biological and physical processes that underpin all life. For example, pesticides wipe out many non-target insects, which are fundamental to all ecosystems and, therefore, to the provision of clean air, water and food.

“There has been a fiftyfold increase in the production of chemicals since 1950 and this is projected to triple again by 2050,” said Patricia Villarrubia-Gómez, a PhD candidate and research assistant at the Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC) who was part of the study team. “The pace that societies are producing and releasing new chemicals into the environment is not consistent with staying within a safe operating space for humanity.”

Dr Sarah Cornell, an associate professor and principal researcher at SRC, said: “For a long time, people have known that chemical pollution is a bad thing. But they haven’t been thinking about it at the global level. This work brings chemical pollution, especially plastics, into the story of how people are changing the planet.”

Some threats have been tackled to a larger extent, the scientists said, such as the CFC chemicals that destroy the ozone layer and its protection from damaging ultraviolet rays.

Determining whether chemical pollution has crossed a planetary boundary is complex because there is no pre-human baseline, unlike with the climate crisis and the pre-industrial level of CO2 in the atmosphere. There are also a huge number of chemical compounds registered for use – about 350,000 – and only a tiny fraction of these have been assessed for safety.

So the research used a combination of measurements to assess the situation. These included the rate of production of chemicals, which is rising rapidly, and their release into the environment, which is happening much faster than the ability of authorities to track or investigate the impacts.

The well-known negative effects of some chemicals, from the extraction of fossil fuels to produce them to their leaking into the environment, were also part of the assessment. The scientists acknowledged the data was limited in many areas, but said the weight of evidence pointed to a breach of the planetary boundary.

“There’s evidence that things are pointing in the wrong direction every step of the way,” said Prof Bethanie Carney Almroth at the University of Gothenburg who was part of the team. “For example, the total mass of plastics now exceeds the total mass of all living mammals. That to me is a pretty clear indication that we’ve crossed a boundary. We’re in trouble, but there are things we can do to reverse some of this.”

Villarrubia-Gómez said: “Shifting to a circular economy is really important. That means changing materials and products so they can be reused, not wasted.”

The researchers said stronger regulation was needed and in the future a fixed cap on chemical production and release, in the same way carbon targets aim to end greenhouse gas emissions. Their study was published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology

There are growing calls for international action on chemicals and plastics, including the establishment of a global scientific body for chemical pollution akin to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Prof Sir Ian Boyd at the University of St Andrews, who was not part of the study, said: “The rise of the chemical burden in the environment is diffuse and insidious. Even if the toxic effects of individual chemicals can be hard to detect, this does not mean that the aggregate effect is likely to be insignificant.

“Diffuse and insidious” seems to apply to a lot of the problems we’re facing right now. In particular – and this will shock you – this makes me think of greenhouse gas pollution. The entire problem of global warming is diffuse and insidious. Instead of the attention-grabbing stuff, like causing cancer, greenhouse gases just… raise the temperature a little. So very little that it’s hard to measure, and then they do it again. And again. And again. Every hour, of every day, of every month, year round, for as long as they exist. We’ve known about it for well over a century now. We’ve been studying it for longer than that, and we’ve been watching as the numbers have gotten higher.

As the article says, we’ve crossed a number of thresholds recently, and there’s no real way to go back – we just have to find a different way forward.  As I will never stop repeating, we need systemic change. It’s not just the climate. It’s not just the chemical pollution. It’s not just the bigotry, and the greed, and the cruelty.

It’s everything. Plenty of parts of our society are good, and wonderful, and worth holding on to, but all parts of our society are sick. Because we are a self-aware collective organism, as a species, we have the ability to re-arrange the workings of our “body” to suit different wants and needs. That’s our greatest power, and it’s past time we did the learning and organizing required to put it to use for the good of all.


Thank you for reading. If you find my work interesting, useful, or entertaining, please share it with others, and please consider joining the group of lovely people who support me at patreon.com/oceanoxia. Life costs money, alas, and owing to my immigration status in Ireland, this is likely to be my only form of income for the foreseeable future, so if you are able to help out, I’d greatly appreciate it. The beauty of crowdfunding is that even as little as $1 per month ends up helping a great deal if enough people do it. You’d be supporting both my nonfiction and my science fiction writing, and you’d get early access to the fiction.

Lonerbox takes a hard look at hard times and hard men

An obsession with “hard” masculinity is a very old trope, but one that continues to plague us. It’s often supported by facile historical comparisons that fall apart upon closer inspection, but it remains one of the most reliable tools for manipulating men into a whole array of harmful behaviors. Self-destructive showing off, domestic abuse, abusive relationships between friends, violence, support for political “strong men”, support for war, hatred of “weakness”, misogyny, homophobia, transphobia – all the traits we currently categorize as “toxic masculinity” tend to be supported by the notion that being a “hard man” is a good thing, and being not that is a bad thing. I think this Lonerbox video is a good companion piece to Thought Slime’s earlier look at the same topic, from a different angle. The reality is that this psuedo-historical “ancient wisdom” is both a-historical and (in my opinion) instrumental in creating hard times.

Tegan Tuesday: The Vimes Boots Index

“The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money. Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of okay for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles. But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that’d still be keeping his feet dry in ten years’ time, while a poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.” – Terry Pratchett, Men at Arms

Terry Pratchett wrote many words on injustices within systems and on the importance of building support networks of people within said systems in his Discworld series. Men at Arms was written in 1993, the fifteenth book in the series, and the concept referred to as the “Sam Vimes ‘Boots’ theory of socio-economic unfairness” caught fire. It’s not a new concept — poverty taxes exist in many forms across all life, such as bulk discounts for those able to afford the large upfront cost and who have the storage space for excess material — but the phrasing of the Boots theory was particularly catchy. Economics classes have used it as a pithy example of the poverty tax issue, and many who might have never encountered the concept understood it easily through the medium of fiction.

Enter Jack Monroe. Mx. Monroe is a UK-based food writer, journalist and poverty activist. I first encountered their work with their phenomenal food blog ‘Cooking on a Bootstrap,’ which details ways to actually live on poverty wages. Monroe grew up working class and spent years as a working-poor single parent — all of the recipes and tricks they write about come from experience. Thanks to their luck with their successful blog, they have since used their greater platform to highlight inequalities, support hunger relief programs, and be a vocal activist for labor and poverty issues. Their new campaign is a price index to track basic food products, labeled the “Vimes Boots Index,” in honor of the late Sir Terry Pratchett. This past month has included the official authorization from the Pratchett estate for the name, with the author’s daughter, Rhianna Pratchett, stating that her dad would have been proud to see his work used by for anti-poverty campaigns.

But why do we need a new consumer price index (CPI) at all? The UK government is one of many that offers such a service and it has continued to do so throughout the changes of Brexit, pandemic, and global shipping disruptions. But according to Monroe on twitter, the offical UK CPI “grossly underestimates the real cost of inflation as it happens to people with the least.” According to the UK government, inflation was at 5.4%. This official number was calculated assuming purchases from a list of 700 items including legs of lamb, bedroom furniture, televisions and champagne. According to Monroe’s personal tracking in their local grocery store, non-champagne food prices were doubling and tripling. Take rice, for example. It is a common staple in poor households as it is cheap, sold in large quantities, and very easy to adjust to make it feel like a different meal from day to day. In their local store last year, Monroe noted that they could purchase a 1kg bag of rice for 45p; but last week the price was £1 for a 500g bag, or a 344% increase. Adding insult to injury, the number and variety of ‘value products’ has significantly dropped in stores. Situations like this example have been happening in grocery stores all across the British Isles, with two and a half million British residents using food banks as a result during 2021. This infuriating disconnect between the official numbers and the lived experience of the average British person caused Monroe to reach out to economists, charities, and analysts to create the new price index. The Vimes Boots Index is intended to “document the disappearance of the budget linesand the insidiously creeping prices of the most basic versions of essential items at the supermarket” and “serve as an irrefutable snapshot of the reality experienced by millions of people,” as stated by Monroe in their Observer column on January 22, 2022.

It’s not just poverty activists and those directly affected who have noticed the rise in food insecurity. Richard Walker, the managing director of the grocery chain Iceland (focusing primarily on frozen foodstuffs) gave a statement on ITV January 21st that his stores were losing customers to “food banks, and to hunger.” That customers weren’t being priced out and going to different stores, but that the next step was charity or starvation. The director then went on to pledge that their £1 range will stay at the £1 rate until the end of 2022, in order to give customers a reliable budget item. But Iceland remains a lone raft in a sea of rising prices.

The increased visibility of the extreme inflation of food prices at the lowest end of the market and the influence of the newly formed Vimes Boots Index has already had real-world impact. As of January 26, 2022, the Office for National Statistics has admitted that “one inflation rate doesn’t fit all” and Monroe reported that the office will be changing the way that they collect and report on both inflation in general and food prices in specific. These changes will take into account a wider range of income levels and household circumstances. While more accurate reporting of the problem will not make the problems with rising food costs go away, higher visibility of the issue will hopefully lead to support at a larger level than community-based support.


Tegan has helped with beta reading and editing on this blog for a while now, and she decided she also wants to do a weekly post about topics that catch her attention. As always this is part of our effort to make ends meet, as my immigration status doesn’t allow me to get wage labor, so this blog is my only source of income.  You can sign up to help us pay the bills at patreon.com/oceanoxia. The great thing about crowdfunding is how little each contributor needs to put in; in this case as little as a dollar per month – that’s like three cents a day! Pocket change! We could use it to buy better boots!

Anyway, thanks for reading, and take care of yourselves.

Video: Why “Net Zero” Emissions Targets are a Scam

As public awareness of climate change and desire for action have both increased, corporations and their bought politicians have been working overtime to find ways to misinform the public, shift blame, and convince people that everything is under control, and no systemic change is needed. One of the tools that has been developed to help that effort is the concept of “net zero”. It’s a reasonable-sounding concept that could be perfectly valid, if we lived in a world run by honest people who want to do the right thing with their power.

Sadly, that’s not the world in which we live, so let’s take a closer look at this “net zero” thing:

 

Shaun’s video on anti-vax propaganda

This is sort of an appendix to yesterday’s post. Jimmy Dore is far from the only person spreading misinformation and devaluing the lives of most of humanity, he’s just caught my attention a few times in recent weeks, and the hypocrisy of him attacking other people for not being “left enough” has become more than a little annoying.

I think this video is important for a couple of reasons, beyond the satisfaction of seeing Dore dismantled. The first is that it touches on a bunch of talking points that are being pretty widely used right now, and the second is that it digs into the research, and demonstrates how errors and unclear language within scientific articles can play a big role in how bits of propaganda get started. I suggest you put it on while you’re cooking, or gaming, or something.

COVID-19, Jimmy Dore, and eugenics

Instead of recommending cleanliness to the poor, we should encourage contrary habits. In our towns we should make the streets narrower, crowd more people into the houses, and court the return of the plague.

–Thomas Malthus

The concept of eugenics is fairly simple. It’s sometimes described as applying our understanding of evolution to the “betterment” of humanity, but what that amounts to is using animal breeding techniques on the human population. When it’s talked about “in theory”, some people – including those who should know better – claim that the basic concept is sound, it’s just that there are moral reasons not to do it. This is false. There are moral reasons not to do it, and we’ll get into that a bit, but it’s important to state up front that eugenics is an inherently faulty concept that cannot work. If you want a video breakdown of why that is, I’ll refer you to Rebecca Watson’s response to that time Richard Dawkins decided to demonstrate his ignorance to the world. For everyone else, here’s a quick overview of why eugenics is a vicious fantasy that could never work.

Step one would be determining what counts as “better”. Is it physical prowess? Intelligence? You can’t just breed for “better”, you have to have a clear trait in mind. Shaun’s thorough takedown of The Bell Curve does a good job of demonstrating how “intelligence” is not just a very poorly defined concept, but we also have very little idea how much of it is related to genetics vs. environmental factors. You could try to breed for brain size, but we’ve known for a while that size isn’t what determines intelligence. As I understand it, it’s much more about how the brain is organized, and how different sub-sections of the brain interact with each other. We could try to breed for “health”, but again, that’s a very nebulous concept. Do we want a metabolism that works a certain way? An immune system that works a certain way? What about allergies?

What about creativity and independent thinking? What about pro-social traits like empathy?

And once we have a clear goal in mind, what tradeoffs are we willing to accept? You can breed a dog to “point”, but then you have a compulsive behavioral trait that can be extremely inconvenient if you don’t actually need it. You see something interesting, and instead of noting it and moving on, or maybe taking a picture, or taking notes, you just freeze, and stare intently at it pretty much until you’re forced to move away. We could ignore science and breed for brain size, but then you run the risk of developing things like the skull being too small for the brain, or the head being so heavy that you risk breaking your neck if you’re startled. So we could make the whole body bigger, to support a bigger brain, right? Sure, but after a certain point, being bigger tends to come with its own health problems, and would generally lead to a decrease in longevity. Even if we could wave a wand and make everyone geniuses, would we be willing to lop three decades or so off of our average lifespan?

But let’s assume, for the sake of the argument, that we have a clear trait we want to breed for, and we know we can breed for it, and we can easily detect that trait. Maybe we decided that making humanity “better” means breeding us all to have the pointiest possible elbows. Our vision of human perfection is big, bony, elbow spikes a few hundred generations down the line.

Now we run into the moral problems.

Have you ever looked into how animal breeding works?

To be perfectly frank, it’s a horrific process. Don’t get me wrong – I appreciate the generations of work that went into making livestock and some pets, but really think about the process. If your goal is to have an entire species of spiky-armed apes, that means that you don’t just need to encourage pointy-elbowed people to breed with each other rather than us inferior dull-elbowed people (Dullbows, for short), you also need to ensure that only the pointiest of elbows are allowed to breed. Even if we assume that everyone is on board with this, and Dullbows all volunteer to abstain from procreation for the greater good, you’re going to run into the same problem you encounter with every effort to breed for one trait to the exclusion of all others – you get inbreeding.

But exiting our fantastical scenario, when an animal breeder is going for a particular trait – or even broad set of traits – any babies without the desired trait tend to be “culled” – removed from the breeding population. The most common method is to just kill any individual that the breeder has decided should not be allowed to reproduce. Other options are forced sterilization, or lifelong confinement to prevent breeding.

That means, for our elbow example, that all of us Dullbows would either be murdered, imprisoned, or forcibly sterilized, for the greater pointiness of humanity. Basically, applying animal breeding techniques to humanity starts with routine and ongoing mass murder, as we saw most famously in Nazi Germany. It’s important to note here that “most famously” should not be taken to mean “only”. I didn’t learn about it in school, but long before the rise of the Nazi party, the German empire was carrying out genocides in its African colonies in the name of eugenics, overseen in part by the father of Hermann Goering. The horrors of the Holocaust didn’t come out of nowhere. A lot of what went on in Nazi Germany was not particularly exceptional for imperial governments then and since. Forced sterilization, genocide, cruel and destructive medical experiments on minorities, convicts, and disabled people have happed all over the globe, both within empires, and in colonies under imperial supervision.

The United States was the first country to have official forced sterilization laws, beginning with Indiana in 1907. The practice was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 1981, but it continues to be done to disabled people, and to prisoners (including disabled prisoners, in case that needed to be made clear), both in exchange for shorter sentences, and involuntarily. Further, numerous women detained by ICE have allegedly been sterilized against their will, and the report from what was supposed to be a DHS investigation into the whistleblower’s allegations just… didn’t mention the whole nonconsensual hysterectomy thing. The DHS did, however, find the time to put music to their slideshow, resulting in this deeply weird video. Given the state of the U.S. law enforcement system, I feel no worry saying that I believe the accusers, and I don’t think it’s just some kind of mistake that the DHS just happened to leave out any mention of those allegations. Supposedly they’re doing a separate thing for that, but I’m not going to hold my breath.

Eugenics continues to be practiced in the United States, and I presume elsewhere, and if anything it seems to be gaining popularity in that country’s increasingly fascist right wing, with Charles Murray, author of The Bell Curve, being interviewed by conservative media on a fairly regular basis. Unfortunately, explicitly eugenicist actions like murder and forced sterilization are not the end of the story. That quote up at the top represents a different approach to eugenics, informed by the rather Calvinist perspective that a person’s “unfitness” could be seen in their position in life. In this view, the troubles of the poor are due to their own personal failings, which makes them both unworthy from a moral perspective, and unproductive, otherwise why would they be poor?

And so the recommendation was to deliberately engineer conditions calculated to bring about sickness and death among the poor as a means of “decreasing the surplus population”. This perspective was popular among the “elites” of the past (and I suspect of the present as well), probably because it both excused and even glorified their wealth, while blaming all problems on the poor. This concept of a “surplus population” is probably most famous in the English-speaking world as one of the reasons why Dickens’ Ebenezer Scrooge refused to give to charity. He preferred instead to rely on prisons and workhouses, both of which tended to have poor sanitation and lots of people crowded together, being worked hard on inadequate rations – all conditions that, to quote Robert Malthus, courted the return of the plague.

Malthus, for the unfamiliar, is probably the most famous figure in the field of freaking out about overpopulation. His book, An Essay on the Principle of Population, foretold eventual famine as a result of exponential population growth at a time when food production was only increasing in a linear fashion. His recommendations about trying to increase the death rate among the poor were a vicious and misguided attempt to prevent future famine by deliberately inflicting the conditions of famine on a politically powerless subset of the population on a more or less permanent basis. Malthus’ work is considered to be an inspiration for Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb, which re-invigorated the overpopulation panic in the mid to late 20th century.

Malthus taught at the East India Company College, and one of his students there was one Charles Trevelyan, who went on, in time, to become an assistant secretary to the royal treasury. In that capacity, he oversaw English aid efforts during the Great Famine in Ireland, and his opinions and policies – informed by what he learned from Malthus – are widely considered to have driven up the death toll. Of particular interest to me is his belief in the laissez-faire approach to economic governance, and his belief that if, for example, the food that was exported from Ireland throughout the famine were diverted, and the Irish were given what they needed to eat, then they might become dependent on the government. A million people died of starvation and disease (which had an easier time killing people because they were starving), in the name of the so-called Protestant work ethic, and what we now know as The Invisible Hand of the Free Market. Trevelyan was knighted for his work on famine relief.

This disdain for the poor and powerless, and this dogmatic belief that “The Market will provide” remain the governing philosophies of much of the world, and the United States in particular. It’s central to the “Welfare Queen” propaganda, and other efforts to attack social safety nets, and it plays a leading role in environmental racism and the lack of response to climate change. It’s also constantly present in arguments that support the U.S. for-profit healthcare system, and recently it has been woven into a lot of the rhetoric surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic:

It is hard not to read eugenic implications in this kind of thinking: the “herd” will survive, but for that to happen, other “weaker” members of society need to be sacrificed. And while Johnson’s right-wing political milieu is associated with the recent revival of racial science, there are no hints of a far-right conspiracy in Sweden, for example, where the centre-left government has confidently stood by the advice of the Public Health Agency, firmly opposing suppression measures.

In Norway, where the government has reluctantly embarked on several weeks of lockdown, a Norwegian Institute of Public Health director has recently said the epidemic cannot be stopped, and between 40 and 60 percent of Norway‘s population might be infected. Once many people build immunity, they can spend time with the sick without getting infected, and with people in high-risk groups without risking infecting them.

The Norwegian and Swedish states have a long history of adopting policies based on eugenics that continued well after World War II. Eugenics was deployed throughout the 20th century as a branch of scientific state management, part of a social engineering project that envisioned a society made of physically healthy and “socially fit” individuals.

It was closely associated with the development of the welfare state, and resulted in cruel practices, such as the forced sterilisation of mentally ill people.

Setting aside the long shadow of the past, it is the very argument that the economy is more important than people’s health that is based on a eugenic logic. Instead of the ethnos and the nation, we have the market that rules supreme over people’s lives, and is given the power of life and death over its subjects.

Most people who push the lie that COVID numbers are overblown, the vaccines are bad, the lockdowns are tyranny, and so on – most of those folks are conservative, and opposed to universal healthcare. Their arguments tend to revolve around “personal responsibility”, and whining about having to pay for the bad health “choices” of other people. In other words, anyone who dies because of the wealth-based rationing of the U.S. healthcare system deserved to die, and we’re better off without them. Similar arguments often come from liberal sleazebags like Bill Maher – anyone with a “pre-existing condition” is, deemed Unhealthy, in a way that makes their premature deaths irrelevant, never mind the decades of life people regularly have with said conditions.

What I didn’t expect was to see these arguments from someone claiming to be on the left, and claiming to be a standard-bearer in the fight for universal healthcare:

 

 

Note what the “point” of Dore’s clip was: the numbers are artificially inflated because out of the roughly 170,000 people in the UK whose deaths were attributed to COVID-19, only around ten percent had COVID-19 with zero comorbidities. That means, for example, that a 20 year old who is overweight and dies of COVID-19 shouldn’t count, when considering the severity of the disease, because they are overweight. Because it is “common knowledge” that being overweight shortens your life expectancy.

By a couple years.

“Extreme” obesity might shorten one’s life by as much as 14 years. Taking myself as an example – my BMI is over 40 – that would mean that at 37 years old, I should still have at least another 23 years or so in me, assuming I don’t do anything to improve my health, like exercising more.  I should also point out that it’s only in the last few years that I’ve actually gotten to the point where I consider myself pretty good at my craft, and the amount of writing I’ve been doing has been increasing in recent years, and is likely to keep increasing.

If I were to catch COVID tomorrow and die a month later, that would wipe out a majority what would have been my career as a writer, and according to Jimmy Dore and those like him, that doesn’t count.

The reality is that all diseases have a wide array of comorbidities, and they always have. There has never been a world in which a majority of the population was in “perfect health” with no conditions that might make them more vulnerable to one disease or another, and setting policies based on such a world is guaranteed to result in mass death. We haven’t even touched on things like asthma or heart problems, which can be caused or exacerbated simply by breathing the polluted air of urban and industrial environments, but the reality is that we shouldn’t have to. Even if my obesity was due to a conscious, calculated decision to sacrifice a decade of life in exchange for more General Tso’s chicken, that doesn’t amount to a conscious choice to lose three decades of life because a pandemic was badly managed.

Or because it was decided that a certain portion of the population is simply disposable:

But as a disabled, immunocompromised person, I’m haunted by how Dr. Walensky added, after explaining that over 75% of the deaths of vaccinated people from Covid have been people with four or more comorbidities, that this is “encouraging news.” This messaging–meant to encourage a return to normal and apparently meant to comfort nondisabled people–is the real sting of this constant refrain of “people with comorbidities” rhetoric. I have been told, almost daily since the earliest stages of this pandemic, that it’s only people like me that are dying, that people like me are somehow a completely acceptable sacrifice for “the economy” and a “return to normal.” What should be read as a profound failure of national policy to protect the most vulnerable among us is being repackaged as “encouraging news.”

I’m troubled by how deeply this messaging has permeated our culture. In talks with nondisabled people about how I’m still being careful, isolating and using a mask when I absolutely have to leave my home, I am gaslight by nondisabled people, who robotically repeat to me this “it’s only people with comorbidities dying” talking point. When I remind them that when they talk about people with comorbidities that they are talking about people like me, the response is predictably the same: “I wasn’t talking about you.”

But the fact that they’re not talking about me–and about us as immunocompromised and disabled people–is the problem. “People with comorbidities” is deployed to make us faceless non-people, to erase us from the conversation even when we are–in the most literal sense–the people being talked about. The rhetorical function of that word, of “comorbidities” is to erase our identities, to talk about us without talking about us. With the rhetoric of “comorbidities,” we’re not your siblings or your grandparents or your neighbors or your friends anymore. We’re statistics.

The reality of the situation is my government doesn’t care if I or other disabled, marginalized people die as long as nondisabled people can eat inside at an Applebees. We’re disposable as long as most people can continue to offer their labor (coerced by capitalism) and consumption to make the richest people a bit richer. In the push for a return to normal–a normal which already disregarded disabled people, and especially multiply marginalized disabled people–the eugenic belief that lives like mine are less worthy continues to solidify as policy, as schools and businesses reopen, as my state government here in Texas continues to stand in the way of local mandates and protections.

A versatile concept, “comorbidities,” is rhetorically deployed like the other eugenic weapons of capitalism and white supremacy, making faceless abstractions of the very people most at risk from this widely unmitigated pandemic. But framing the deaths of those with comorbidities as “encouraging news” sidesteps conversations around other prevailing injustices, including how BIPOC communities are more likely to have comorbidities because of systemic inequalities, how this pandemic has disproportionately harmed indigenous communities, and how the medical industrial complex already maligns disabled people, BIPOC folks, fat people, and LGBTQA+ kin.

Epidemics and pandemics are, pretty much by definition, a Bad Time. They bring death and fear, and have a long history of bringing societies of every kind to a grinding, painful halt. Those of us in wealthy nations are often told that we’re at or near the peak of civilization, and that all those bad things in the past don’t count because we didn’t know better, and that was so long ago. And it’s bullshit. We’ve learned enough about the world to know that things like eugenics aren’t just morally repugnant, but are also entirely without even the “practical merits” their advocates claim. What we haven’t done is change the ways in which our society incentivizes scapegoating, bigotry, and the devaluation of human life.

We are in the beginning of an era that is likely to be defined by “natural” disasters of every kind, and conditions like heat, cold, and disease outbreaks have always been used as tools of eugenics and genocide. This pandemic should open our eyes to a great many problems with the way we run things, and that definitely includes the fact that support for eugenics has never really gone away. We can’t avoid repeating the horrors of the past if we don’t change the social infrastructure that was in many cases designed to lead people towards “solutions” that involve deliberately letting people die for no good reason.


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One day more!

Another day, another post for me; this never-ending grim typography.

These words I publish every day, in hopes that someday it will pay

One day more…

 

Uh – so, that eugenics piece isn’t done. Weirdly, I find that difficult topics are sometimes difficult to write about, and it’s 3:30am, so I’m going to call it quits and pick it up again tomorrow. In the meantime, here’s a climate scientist looking at climate change through the lens of a toilet bowl: