Will This Be the Coldest Summer of the Rest of Your Life?

There’s a scene in The Simpsons Movie that has become a regular in conversations about the world getting worse in various ways. Bart says, “this is the worst day of my life”, and Homer responds with a cheerful, “The worst day of your life, so far.” Naturally, this has been adapted for all sorts of situations, including the climate crisis:

A two-panel comic. In the first, a weather map of a US heatwave is superimposed next to Bart Simpson, with the caption, "This is the hottest summer of my life." In the second panel, Homer puts a hand on his shoulder and says, "This is the COLDEST summer of the REST of your life."

I like this meme. It’s a nice piece of gallows humor about the fact that the people running our world seem to be actively seeking our extinction, and so the planet is going to keep getting hotter, probably for centuries to come. There is a way in which this is entirely correct, and there is a way in which, for this particular summer, it is not.

The way in which it is correct is that the planet, as a whole, is getting hotter every moment. Over a decade ago, John Cook compared the rate of warming to the nuclear bomb detonated over Hiroshima. Specifically, the rate of warming was equivalent to detonating four of those bombs every second of every day, without pause. The rate has only increased since then.

I’m a little uncomfortable using one of the most horrifying war crimes in history as a unit of measurement, but the scale of what’s happening is beyond what most of us are able to hold in our little monkey brains, and the nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki gave us a way to convert these numbers into a human frame of reference.

Fortunately for us, the overwhelming majority of that heat is absorbed by the ocean. That means that it has felt gradual to most, and climate scientists have been unanimous in saying that we’d still have hot years and cold years, just an overall upward trend. More recently, it’s been harder to ignore that every year really is hotter than the last, and it looks increasingly likely that 2026 is gonna be a real doozy.

In January of this year, a research team published the results of a study of ocean warming in 2025. To use our measure of atomic explosions, the oceans absorbed heat equivalent to twelve per second, for every second of 2025.

And the Pacific ocean is about to give a lot of that heat back to the atmosphere.

As many of you are already aware, climate scientists are warning that this year will be the most intense El Niño since the 1870s. I want to dig, just a little, into what that means.

The first thing, going back to the meme at the beginning, is that after this ends, there will be a period that is cooler. “El Niño” refers to the warming phase of the Southern Oscillation that moves between warm phases and cool phases (called “La Niña”). The cycle is basically driven by the Pacific Ocean sloshing back and forth over the period of a few years. That means that the cycle isn’t going to just stop, so as we go into this warm phase, with whatever chaos it brings, please know that it will cool down, at least from our perspective. In terms of lived experience, this will not be the coldest summer for the rest of your life.

However, this will be a good demonstration of conditions we can expect more and more frequently as this century progresses. The more heat there is in the system, the better the odds of a major El Niño event. More than that, as the global temperature keeps rising, we will encounter conditions like what we’re about to experience much more often, and eventually we’ll have them as just the normal state of affairs, with hot phases of the Southern Oscillation being beyond anything humanity has experienced. I also want to note, as I have before, that even though events like this are really just redistributing heat that was already here, it will add to the momentum of global warming as a whole.

Now on to the short-term impacts. In 1877 and 1878, a massive El Niño event triggered a global famine that killed 50 million people. As news outlets have been reminding people, better technology and understanding of the world make it unlikely that the current event will be like that, but I think it will be devastating. The unfortunate reality is that most famines tend to be a matter of logistics and social constructs, rather than the absolute ability to feed anyone. Ireland famously exported more than enough food to feed everybody during the Great Famine, but the eugenicist government of the British Empire saw mass death among the Irish as a good thing, and valued the profits from commercial exports more than Irish lives. Even before modern agriculture really took off, famines tended to be the result of the ruling class’s reckless disregard for life, and their unwillingness to tighten their own belts, even as they blamed the poverty they created on their victims. Worse, famine has long been a weapon of genocide. That’s the case with the ongoing, Saudi-caused famine in Yemen (with US support), and the starving of Gaza (with US support).

As I’ve said many times before, we’ve been able to end world hunger for decades. What we lack is a system that values human life enough to do so. There may not be as big a food shortage as 1877/78, relative to our population, but the global economy is still governed by people who don’t value human life very much. In the case of the Trump regime, they’re also eugenicists.

Eugenics is basically the pseudoscientific idea of using selective breeding practices on human populations. A huge part of selective breeding is the sterilization or culling of individuals with “undesirable traits”, and to the fascists of the GOP, those traits tend to include any disability or neurodiversity, any form of Queerness, any form of left-wing thought, and also the roughly 87% of humanity that’s not “white”.

So I think it’s hard to predict. I don’t know if you remember, but when people first started talking about COVID-19 in late 2019, early 2020, most experts believed that it wouldn’t be as bad as it became. They believed that because we knew how to handle disease outbreaks. We knew how to use PPE, quarantine, lockdowns, and so on, and so it was just a matter of taking those steps, and either slowing or stopping the spread so we didn’t overwhelm healthcare systems while we worked on a vaccine.

It might have become a pandemic either way, but not every country was willing to take the economic hit of a real lockdown, and the folks running the US weren’t willing to risk the general public getting the idea that maybe the government could be making life easier on a daily basis.

And not only did the US government needlessly let hundreds of thousands die, they also interfered, along with US oligarchs, in the COVID responses of other countries. The US even resorted to piracy to shore up its greed-driven PPE shortage. The same people are running the US now, and have demonstrated their willingness to murder innocent fishermen, steal Venezuelan oil, and generally crash the global economy, apparently to serve Trump’s ego and Netanyahu’s fantasy of making Iran a failed state, and therefor not an obstacle to Israel’s imperial project. Whatever the climate does over the next couple years, we’re going into it with an oil crisis and a fertilizer shortage, neither of which needed to happen.

My greatest frustration with the world is that it could be so, so much better than it is, but our systems are governed by people who are either fine with destroying countless lives, or who actively enjoy it. Worse, there are far too many within the working class who have the same desire for power over others. We have yet to shake off the burden of rulers, and so we are still, in far too many ways, subject to their whims.

So there will be droughts, and heat waves, and flooding, and crop failures. Very likely, rich, developed nations will experience shortages and high prices, but not outright famine. That’s the way this thing tends to go these days. If people like Stephen Miller have their way, things will be worse. It will be used as an excuse to further limit food imports to the former colonies that have largely been forced to continue producing cheap goods for the global market, while importing large portions of the food they eat. I think it is likely to be a rough couple of years for humanity.

The US is a dying empire with global reach, and that tends to be a chaotic and violent period in an empire’s life. Adding a record-breaking global heat event to the mix could have a stifling effect on that chaos, or it could add fuel to the fire.

As always, those hit the hardest will be the people who are most vulnerable, and who had the least say in making the world the way it is.

And now I want to end on a slightly less gloomy note. A lot of people online have been wondering how we know about the 1887/8 El Niño, if we didn’t have satellites back then. I always enjoy the subject of how we know what we know, and when it comes to the climate of the past, it’s always cool stuff. In this case, we have a lot of records.

It’s important to remember, when we’re considering anything relating to the last few centuries, that global empires have been a factor since the 1400s. That means global shipping, navies all over the place, and the tracking of agricultural conditions across colonies. Any ship on the ocean needs to be aware of weather conditions, so they tracked them religiously. By looking at those records, we can form a picture of the global climate. There are also farm records, the notes of amateur naturalists, and paleoclimatology tricks like tree rings and sediment cores.

We have always been at the whim of the weather to one degree or another, so we’ve always tracked it to the best of our ability. The rise of civilization as we currently understand it was dependent on reliable seasonal weather patterns for regular mass production of food, and while I’ve long advocated that we start moving food production indoors, the dependence remains. Well, that period of stability is gone, and we’re just starting to get a taste of the new era.

The Republican Party’s War on Autistic People

The post I had intended for today is simply not ready yet, and I’d rather not put half-finished work out for the public. If you want to see my stuff when it’s less refined and less coherent, you can give me money on Patreon.

For this week, I’m posting an important video essay from Ember Green on the Trump administration’s plans for autistic people. RFK Jr. is a eugenicist, who is following Thomas Malthus’ prescription of “courting the return of the plague” to kill off poor people, but sadly mass death isn’t enough for him; he also needs to torture people. He has filled HHS leadership with quacks of the highest order, and when it comes to the issue of autism, he and his people still think it is something that can be “cured”, rather than just a way of being human. This is a common response, among certain types of mind, to any deviation from their fantasy of an ordered world with everyone in their place. They have a similar response to trans people as well, and in both cases the proposed treatments basically amount to psychological and physical tortures devised in the 1800s and early 1900s.

Recommended “treatment” include things like electroconvulsive therapy/ECT (running electricity through the brain to induce a seizure), and hyperbaric oxygen therapy. As with Ivermectin, these are treatments that do have valid uses, when applied carefully and correctly.  ECT can be used in the treatment of severe depression, schizophrenia, catatonia, and some other conditions. It has been tried for autism, and there’s no reason to think it works.

That’s a theme with these people. They love to take treatments that were tried long ago, and ignore the reasons why they’re not used that way anymore. ECT can be safe, and can be helpful, but it can also fuck up your nervous system, and it’s not something to use without cause.

Hyperbaric oxygen treatment is basically used for certain kinds of problems involving gas in the bloodstream. It’s most commonly used for decompression sickness, when divers ascending too quickly get nitrogen gas bubbles in the blood and other parts of the body. It’s also used for carbon monoxide poisoning, necrosis, crushing injuries, and other conditions, all of which involve problems with tissues not in the nervous system. As with ECT, high-pressure therapies can be safe, and life-saving, but as with ECT, there are serious dangers to messing about with pressure, so it shouldn’t be done when it’s not needed, and once again, there is no evidence to suggest it can help in any way with autism.

It’s hard to say what, exactly, is wrong with RFK Jr., or other people who seem to think death is preferable to autism, but it honestly doesn’t matter. What matters is that they should not have the power they have been given, and people will be tortured, injured, and killed by their refusal to engage with reality.

Ember goes into more detail, so check out the video, and consider supporting her work.

New Patreon Rewards!

I have always struggled a bit with the “rewards” part of Patreon. I have limited time and energy, and with the exception of a period of time during COVID, I have always had other priorities that didn’t lend themselves to the rewards system. That has now changed.

Over the last couple years, I’ve been exploring the wonderful world of tattoos. I don’t have all that many, but I’ve discovered that I find the process of designing them to be very satisfying. I think I want my next one to be a raven, but I want to do it myself. I have the tools, but I currently lack the artistic skill to make permanent marks on myself that are up to my standards. I’m working to overcome the perfectionism, but in the meantime I want to get better at drawing ravens in a way that transfers to making tattoos without the expensive machinery a pro would use. I’m trying to draw one every day, and if I can’t do a whole one, I can at least put a little ink on paper. It also turns out that my various bits of art education over the years have left me better at this than I expected. It helps that stippling is a pretty forgiving technique. The better proportions on the second two are because I took the time to measure and mark a few key distances, rather than just eyeballing everything.

So.

I’m about to have a surplus of raven drawings, I bought some nice cards to put them on, and from now on, every patron giving more than €15 gets one raven drawing with a note on the back of the card. If that’s you, then all you have to do is give me the address to send it to, and request the note. I will post all available drawings here as they become available. Each card is 105x148mm.

As with the blog posts, I’m going to make all of them as good as I can with the time I have, but I’m sure some will be better than others because that’s how this goes. If there’s not one you like available, you can always wait for a better one to come along. I don’t have many currently, but this time next year I should at least have a couple hundred, so supply shouldn’t be a problem, as my hordes of adoring patrons pour in for this exciting and unique opportunity. Patrons will get to see the new drawings as I post them, but I’ll update here as well from time to time.

The only other “reward” I currently have is that all paying patrons get to see an earlier draft of each post.

Next week we’ll be back to posts with weighty subject matter, but for now, you should head over to patreon.com/oceanoxia and sign up for the Raven Tier!

Update: Forgot to credit the photographers!

 

 

The False Promises of Ethnocracy

It has come to my attention that a disturbing number of people think that ethnostates, or ethnocracies, are fine as a concept, and an effective and ethical way to protect the ethnicity in question. This is wrong. I believe that the inherent nature of such a system is such that no matter how noble the intentions may be (and I have my doubts about that), it will inevitably lead to some form of ethno-supremacist fascism. The world being what it is, I should also state that ethno-supremacist fascism is bad and destructive, and a threat to all of humanity, and most life on the planet.

An ethnocracy is a system of government that operates for the benefit of one ethnic group above all others. It is not a country in which the overwhelming majority of people are of one ethnicity. The ethnocracy with the most mainstream acceptance in my lifetime has been the nation of Israel, and it’s also the one that I believe is the closest to being defensible based on the way most people understand history. For that reason, Israel and Zionism will take up more space here than other examples. While most of humanity is horrified by what Israel has become, there are still a great many people who believe that an ethnocracy can be done “right”.

The idea of a Jewish state was born in an era when most of the European world believed in so-called “race science”, and ethnocracies were considered more or less normal. The US, South Africa, and Australia all fit that definition, as did Rhodesia. It had long been commonly accepted that there were racial and national traits that were not just a matter of social evolution, but of biological evolution. Crucially, the state of the world, after centuries of colonialism, was seen as evidence of white superiority, while the reluctance of oppressed or enslaved populations to be enthusiastic supporters of their oppressors’ interests was seen as laziness, or irrational intransigence. With this belief came the idea that social strife, while not unique to multicultural societies, was inevitable within them unless a racial hierarchy was maintained. This was also generally tied to an ideology of Christian supremacy, and Christian indoctrination was a regular, usually mandatory part of the ethnic domination.

Many horrors arose from these ideas that we’re dealing with to this day, and it was in this setting that the virulent antisemitism of Europe came to a head with the Holocaust. At this point, it is important to understand that while there were certainly things that set Nazi Germany apart from its enemies, it was also unremarkable in many other ways. The bloody conquest of the American west and American eugenic policies informed much of what the Nazis did, and the empires fighting against the Nazis were involved in their own white supremacist colonial domination. The Nazis did it in Europe, and they tried to do it at industrial scale and speed.

Antisemitism was a centuries-old problem in Europe, and the idea of a Jewish state was gaining popularity both among Jews who believed it was the only way to be free of European antisemitism, and among European antisemites who loved the idea of finally expelling all the Jews from Europe, and sending them somewhere else. This ethnic cleansing was far from an untested idea. Pogroms and other purges fill European history, and England famously expelled all resident Jews in 1290, without any noticeable increase in peace, prosperity, or security as a result.

I’m talking about all of this because it makes sense that those cultures, when presented with the incomprehensible horror of the Holocaust, decided that the solution was to create a Jewish state outside of Europe, and since the British Empire “owned” Palestine, they could just use that land for it, with a few adjustments to the existing population. The founding act of the nation of Israel was the Nakba, in which thousands of Palestinians were killed, and hundreds of thousands were forced out of their homes, to make room for the new Jewish ethnocracy.

This was, I should note, a year after the British Empire exited India, where the “solution” to tensions between the Hindu majority and the Muslim minority was partition. Two ethnocracies were created, and millions of people were forced from their homes in order to create a Hindu state in India, and a Muslim state in Pakistan. Ever since, the border between the two countries has been a site of endless tension, and regular fears of a war that could turn nuclear. It does not seem to have promoted peace, nor has it led to any unusual level of unity within the majority group. The downsides abound, but the upsides never seem to actually manifest.

Turning back to Israel, here are plenty of Zionists who would defend the hideous violence of the Nakba, but the people to whom I am writing today are those who believe that while murderous ethnic cleansing was the wrong way to go about it, there is a right way to have an ethnocracy. I disagree. I believe there is no way to do it that does not result in fear, hatred, and oppression, all of which tend to create violent conflict.

I was tempted to play out an ideal scenario, in which we start with a perfectly homogenous country, but the problem with that is that it’s not a thing. Various nations have tried to force homogeneity within their borders, but every effort, without exception, has used oppressive violence to do so. Every effort has also utterly failed to bring about peace, unity, and safety. There is a sort of No True Scotsman fallacy going on here, in which ethnocracy supporters refuse to acknowledge and consider the history of their ideas, and instead insist that we engage in their idea on a purely theoretical basis – that we pretend history isn’t relevant because it “should work in theory”. I think they also have some fantasy of a world neatly divided into ethnic regions and categories like a children’s geography book. This is supported by the large number of Americans who apparently think most people in the continent of Africa are (a) the same ethnic group, and (b) live in mud huts, both of which are (a) racist and (b) incorrect to an absurd degree. The ethnic diversity on that continent is off the charts, because we’ve been there the longest, and humans diversify.

The closest we can get to homogeneity is to throw out an umbrella label, and pretend that everyone who fits it has roughly the same beliefs and interests. History has shown that that’s not how anything works, but that has never stopped corrupt, bigoted, and misguided people from trying it. Humans don’t abide homogeneity. We explore new ideas, and we try new things. An area may achieve some level of superficial homogeneity through isolation, but even that has to be constantly and coercively maintained. If difference didn’t exist, it wouldn’t need to be continually punished out of existence. There will always be people who think and act differently, and question the way things are, as there always have been. Ethnocracy has to be maintained by domination through both law and culture, and suppression of challenges to that status quo.

So here’s the next problem:

If you have a society that, as a matter of law and culture, privileges one group of people over all others, you need justification. Because people naturally question things, you need to constantly re-state the reason why this inequality must exist.

As I see it, any argument for this stems from fear, either of violence, or of cultural dilution. In the case of Israel, it is the very reasonable and historically supported fear of European antisemitic violence. The problem here is twofold. First, it’s an inherently militaristic motivation. It’s not just the promise safety in political dominance within a nation, it’s also the use of that political power to develop enough military might to defeat any force that might seek to continue that bigoted violence. Second, in order to justify both ethnocracy and military development, you have to maintain that fear of persecution, otherwise, why not relax and invest in peace? The fear must be maintained, and that is not without consequences.

If you are constantly convinced the rest of the world is out to get you, the rest of the world ceases to be fully human. WE know that Our People are good, it’s obvious to us, so if the rest of the world hates Our People, then they must be deranged and evil, incapable of the rational consideration that would lead them to see Us as just other people. To paraphrase a famously sagacious puppet, fear leads to anger, and anger leads to hatred. It’s a recipe for dehumanization, which brings us to the next problem: thinking that Our People are better. Remember, we’re not just defending Our People in an ethnocracy, we are also privileging Our People above all others within our borders. Goodies for Us, guns for Them.

And if it is right and good that We are treated better than Them, then does that not imply that We simply… are better?

If we’re not better, how can we say it is just that Our People may own property, or wield power, or receive government benefits, but others may not? Historically, people have usually claimed some version of divine favor, but even without that, we as humans generally need to believe that we are good, and our actions are righteous, or at least justifiable. For billionaires, the tendency is to believe that they are simply more intelligent, and harder workers than everyone else. They deserve their wealth, no matter how they got it, and the flip side of that is that those in poverty deserve the suffering that comes with it. If you treat a group of people as if they are better, most of them will believe it. This will create an ethno-supremacist feedback loop for a large portion of Our People, which, if coupled with militarism, is a recipe for eventual imperial conquest. If We are so much better, and They are so violent and hateful, why should we let such unworthy people rule anything? Don’t a Great People such as Us deserve a little more living room?
When England ethnically cleansed its Jewish population in 1290, it didn’t become safer or more prosperous because of it, but it did become more antisemitic, and fancied itself “better” due to its supposed purity. While it is not solely to blame, the notion of British superiority served as justification for incalculable violence all over this planet.

So here’s the next problem:

All of this is challenged by familiarity. If we live in community with people who are different from ourselves, those differences become less mysterious, and tend to matter less over time. Eventually, the people in a minority position will find supporters within the majority, who cannot see any good justification for the unequal treatment. If your country is an ethnocracy, then there is no recourse for those people. Such a country might be a democracy in the sense of ancient Greece, with many people living in something like serfdom or some form of slavery, but it’s nothing close to the modern ideal of autonomy – government by the people, for the people. Eventually, such a nation will have the kinds of liberation movements we’ve seen in South Africa, the US, Ireland, and many, many other countries around the world. That is the case for any form of systemic domination.

What’s more, because the “serfs” in this scenario are defined by their exclusion from Our People, we need to maintain a clear distinction. If we are committed to treating people differently based on their category, we must know to which category a person belongs, so we know how to treat them. That gets tricky if you have Our People forming relationships with Their People, so you have to ban intermarriage, or at least make sure that mixed couples and their children are excluded from the rights and protections reserved for Our People. What if people want to intermarry? Well, we can avoid that problem, and the issue of familiarity if we don’t let them mix, right? So, we have different areas with different rules. Their People get to live where we tell them, in the conditions we provide, while Our People get to live in better places, under better conditions. Maybe Their People even get some level of representation in government, but only with the understanding that They will never be allowed actual equality.

We will also have to severely limit immigration, as everyone who isn’t Our People is one of Them, and must not be afforded Our privileges, allowed to mix with Our People, or allowed to build enough political power to challenge the ethnocracy.

At the end of the day, the idea of an ethnocracy is one of appeasement. It’s the belief that those among us who cannot feel safe around people different from themselves can be satisfied through exclusion and oppression. The reality is that such people will never be satisfied.

If everyone who’s not Our People is somehow removed as a threat, then they’ll be afraid of those members of Our People who think or believe differently from themselves. Large portions of history can be described as failed efforts to impose homogeneity on regions of the world in the name of stability and security, and the result has always been injustice, oppression, and failure.

And even if, in our fantasy world, we achieve a country with total cultural homogeneity and internal harmony, those people perpetually afraid of the Other will look for problems elsewhere. We already know that outsiders are Bad, otherwise we would let them live in our country, but what if the outsiders OUTSIDE our country are causing problems? What if some of our politicians are under the influence of outsiders? They must be, otherwise why would there still be problems in our nice, homogenous ethnostate? It’s still the outsiders, and those who sympathize with them. We’re under siege! We’re being undermined from the outside, so we have to isolate ourselves further, and we have to suppress those who sympathize with the outsiders.

And when problems persist, well, maybe the outsiders need to be forced to stop, and we already know they’re irrational monsters who want us destroyed, so really, attacking them is self defense. Homogeneity can also lead to an echo chamber problem, where dissenting voices become rarer and more marginalized, and so the ignorance, hatred, and misconceptions of Our People can spiral into the kind of insanity that lets people believe a minority ethnic group is secretly controlling the world and causing all of its problems on purpose, because they are evil.

Ethnocracy is a death spiral of paranoia and stagnation. It is inherently opposed to ideas like equality, freedom, and self-governance. You can support those things, or you can support ethnocracies. You can’t support both.

As I close, I want to clarify something, since opposition to ethnocracy is currently considered antisemitism by a great many Zionists. I do not believe any nation has a right to exist, but I do believe that every person has a right to exist in freedom and safety. As I hope I’ve made clear, freedom and safety are incompatible with ethnocracy. I want the Jewish people to live free from persecution or oppression as I want that for everyone else, and the way to make that happen is to do the incredibly hard work of building peace and justice for all.

“No justice, no peace” is a statement of fact as much as it is a good chant, in in the same way, none of us is free until all of us are free.

That doesn’t mean we go invade ethnocracies to make them change. That’s just continuing the cycle of violence, and that’s not what we want. It does mean we stop supporting and justifying such projects, and instead support genuine efforts to bring justice and equality in both the short-term and the long term. Ethnonationalists tend to believe that a world of freedom, democracy, and open borders will result in the loss of their cultures, but the reality is that such a world is the only way for us to exist peacefully with the diversity that is a natural and unavoidable part of our species.


An earlier draft of this article went up on my Patreon last Sunday. If you want to see these when I’m mostly done with them, and have input before they go public, you can sign up to give me money at patreon.com/oceanoxia.