I have wargamed war in the gulf a few times. And, as you know, I’m a fan of Millennium Challenge 2000. [stderr]

Let’s see how my posting about “An Iran Scenario” (2019) tracks. Shall we?

2026 Conclusion: all my comments assumed we had a professional military. We don’t. So I’m wrongitty wrong-ong like a beaten gong. How so? Iran didn’t learn much from that awesome exercise the US held, to teach them how to beat the US. But the mind-boggling is hardly limited to that issue. I could literally go on for a book-length and still not cover the weird mistakes being made.

It doesn’t matter how accurate your missiles are, if the defenders’ defense systems will automatically fire at every missile coming in, until they run out of anti-missiles and are left throwing rocks. This is the kind of strategic blunder that is literally shocking to anyone who has ever had a serious thought about strategy: it sets up a situation in which defeat is guaranteed. It is the opposite of a Kobayashi Maru scenario: it’s the scenario that starfleet washouts choose because they want to wash out of starfleet and get a job at some marketing company.

Moving on from bloody defeat: it’s still semi-interesting. Like many other things that are going on, the government put forward its worst people. In this case, they aren’t merely incompetent, they’re thoughtless. Anyone who is about to get into a missile war – an obvious missile war – who does not think through the dynamics above is, literally, innovating in the field of Stupid. Military commanders are supposed to think of this stuff. Napoleon, at the staff briefing, would not have mentioned it, because it would be understood. It’s stupidity on the order of marching on Moscow in September with troops who only have their summer uniforms, or something unbelievable like that.

There is one scary possibility, which I think is outside of the mindspace of most Trumpers because it’s subtle, and that’s that the US actually realized that the defense/offense imbalance was going to happen, but since Iran could mostly reach Tel Aviv and other gulf states, why not sit back and laugh while the ay-rabs blow eachother up? That’s the kind of move Frederick the Great would have pulled (hence “The Great”) – I’d say that the most recent example of such strategic brilliance would be Togo’s performance at Shimonoseki. [stderr] Is that what’s going on? No, I think that what happened is the same thing as happened to Napoleon: he didn’t bring any of his marshals who would have argued different courses at Waterloo. Talleyrand, if he were present, would have recommended that the US fake a constitutional crisis just after the Israelis started attacking Iran, then, with much apology – sit back sipping champagne while assessing the Iranians’ gear. But, I think that we’re dealing with remarkably stupid people. The history of warfare is full of them, and Hegseth will have to endure the dubious honor of not being even an interesting failure – he’s not even a Crassus.

Of course, there is still a lot of warring to be done, so I should avoid making implicit predictions.

All I can predict is: wow, what the fuck?

As I write this, the US is loudly talking about deploying 2 regiments of marines (about 2000 combat troops plus a supply train). That is so crazy, there’s no word for it. Iran is a country the size of Texas and California combined, surrounded with a wall of nasty mountains, and there are millions of them and they are genuinely pissed off. [In terms of Millennium Challenge 2000 this is the end of the scenario: when the marine corps transports came within range of Iranian land-based missiles and missile-boats, and got sunk. Are the Iranians ready? Will the US lose 2 regiments of marines? We shall see.]

Prediction: the US won’t lose. Because the Iranians don’t have the logistics or means to reach us. We’ll declare victory and head home for a ticker-tape parade, etc. Meanwhile, Tel Aviv will get as flattened as Gaza. I’m not sure how I feel about that, so I have been employing a trick I have used for years, which is simply not to feel. My, how interesting. Israel finally managed to talk the US into attacking Iran for them, and it’s the most incompetent thing anyone has ever seen. That’s the problem with hiring stupid people. The US won’t lose, Iran won’t lose, but Israel is fucked – unless they can convince the US to help pay for their repairs. Which is so absurd, I ought to expect it. The economic impact of repairing the damage Israel has suffered is incalculable. In a rational world, this would actually be the end of Israel because most of the population would fuck off back to Poland, Ukraine, Germany, and Russia where they came from, “Well that didn’t work.” To me, this is one of the crazy things about politics: in a semi-rational world, that would actually be a possibility: 95% of Israel ups and quits, and the remainder go “time we learn to negotiate, huh?” The Israelis have thoroughly imploded their own myth that their government is tough and savvy. That might be good for them to realize.

Speaking of which:

In fact, government worldwide is making everyone re-assess government. Some are coming off quite well. Others (England, Australia) are looking like absolute fucksticks. All their lies about democracy and civilian control, etc., lie shattered – obviously – with a spotlight on them. Unfortunately, so do ours.

That’s part of why I was quiet for a while. The food supply of Corn Pops(tm) I took into my under-the-bed bunker ran out. I have been having a bad time of this, as have many people. I don’t know what to do, but I have apologized to a lot of hispanic cooks at Chinese restaurants, and told them I love them. I also considered preparing for stomping a revolution, but I have decided to wait until November. One good sign is that all of the Trump signs but one house, in the entire neighborhood, have quietly disappeared with no fanfare. I have been considering writing a letter and sneaking around and putting it in people’s mailboxes. It would say something like:

“You took your Trump sign down, with little fanfare, and it’s nice to see that you’ve finally maybe figured out what you’ve been supporting. We approve. On the other hand, we blame you personally for the horrific damage the president you helped elect is doing to the world. Please don’t tell us that you did it because you thought cheaper gas would be great – we’d have to think you were far more stupid than you are, to have done that. We think that basically, you’re a racist, misogynist who was willing to choose an obviously corrupt and venal candidate’s lies, rather than a black woman’s truths. That’s on you and we won’t forget who had the Trump banners flying. It’s going to take a long time to root out the candidates who snuck in their racism and corruption under the banner of Trump, but don’t worry – it won’t be long enough that we’ll forget. Imagine the situation in Germany after WWII, when decent people were trying to rebuild their lives, and they knew their neighbors who had survived were also the ones who had enthustically supported the dictator who had just destroyed everyone’s lives. You don’t get to bury that. You were supportive, and party to, the slaughter of nearly 1 million people. And if you voted for him the first time around, you were party to the death by COVID-19 of 1/2 million Americans. You chose to believe the lies, whether because you’re venal and corrupt, or because you make a bucket of sand look smart in comparison.

You fucked up so bad, you ought to go throw a rope over a beam in your garage, and spare us the trouble – because we are going to watch you closely and make sure you don’t think your version of ‘the south will rise again’ is going to happen. We were nice, because we believe in democracy and other people’s opinions, but if we had had any idea how badly this was going to turn out, we’d have showed up some night with knives and rope and shut you the fuck up before it was too late. Now, it’s too late. But let us suggest you shut the fuck up and pretend real hard that you weren’t a nazi. But we know. Some of us photographed all the houses in the area. There is a largeish group – which outnumbers you pretty severely – of mixed ethnicity and liberal politics – who know who you are, know what you did, and will come silence you in the night if you start acting up again. Got it? This is your last warning. Behave like a decent human being, or you’re going to experience what happens when decent human beings feel threatened and angry enough to ruthlessly stomp out a threat.
Thank you for your attention to this matter -“

I don’t know if I will do much in the way of resuming blogging. My feeling is that our civilization needs to collectively re-assess our relationship with public media. Blogging would obviously be part of that. De-platforming useless bros like Joe Rogan is, also. I know that’s not a liberal sentiment but, hey, how has that liberalism worked for you? We need a new media. We need a new progressive party that is not afraid to tell the existing pile of gerontocrats that politics as usual won’t work. We need hard age limits in our representatives; if it’s OK to have a bottom age limit it’s more OK to have an upper one. If we come through this we are going to need to stop being so goddamn bipartisan – look how well it worked for Merrick Garland. My recommendation is that both parties in the 2 party system be crushed and replaced with at least 5 voting blocs. They already exist, let’s stop pretending.

The whole world, right now, is standing back in shock as they absorb the transition of the US from pretend friendly democracy to no longer pretending mighty stupid empire. We fooled some of the people in the world into thinking we were good guys. Liberals who went around saying “support nonviolence” will be remembered also as idiots, when the people who are willing to do the hard work get busy and get violent. When that happens, please shut the fuck up and don’t say stupid things like “violence doesn’t solve problems.” Of course it does. It always has. They’re just not the problems you want solved the way you want them solved.

If you’re one of those liberals on here who made patronising noises about non-violence, you should look up “useful idiot” in the communist idiom and think “wow, that’s me.”

I have switched over from forging cooking gear to forging weapons, because we are heading into an era where swords will be valued again. Peaceful protest is fine, and a lot of people are engaging in it because we understand that the enemy wants us to start the violence. Personally, I think that’s completely irrelevant because, once it starts, the only thing that will matter is who won. Thus it has been, thus it always shall be. We are entering into a new iron age. That is part of why I have been having trouble blogging, lately. Sure, I can sling some words but I’d honestly rather be preparing for my new career as a terrorist.

I am actually so mind-blown and disgusted that I have been thinking of adopting Kim Jong Un as my new Hero(tm). If you think about it, right now, he is the only person who is making sense. Xi is also making sense but he is a man of much less resolve than Kim. Kim is, in my opinion, the wild card in the landscape now. Let me explain: the old order will not survive this. That old order is the one in which the US asserts its “Non Proliferation Treaty” (which it has been blatantly violating since it was signed (go read it) – or declares “sanctions” on some nation, basically meaning “we will manipulate the price of your goods, or a B-2 bomber will manipulate your fucking face”  – the US has revealed the naked grinning skull below the friendly face. Expert observers are not surprised. Generations raised on television and pablum are learning, to their shock and awe. The US managed to conceal a global empire based on nuclear threat, and Iran has just called their bluff. I am afraid Iran is going to suffer, but they have suffered worse before. What’s crazier than a wolverine on meth is that Kim Jong Un seems to be the best strategist with the best self-control at the table. I hope he summons Netanyahu to Pyongyang to suck his cock live on TV. Raise a hand if you wouldn’t tune in to cheer while you watched that.