Ever since Joe Biden’s poor debate performance on June 27th, political observers started what looked like a deathwatch, waiting to see if he would drop out of the race. Some of them (like me) were hoping that he might quit because with him as he presumptive nominee, the presidential race looked like a slow-motion train wreck, with the crash occurring on election day, and the only chance, however slim, of avoiding it would be to have a different nominee. But I was not hopeful that it would occur because Biden kept insisting that he was in the race to stay.
Some in the media may have had other reasons to have Biden drop out. They were excitedly speculating that if he did, there would be a knockdown, drag out competition for the nomination among all the Democratic hopefuls that would end up with a contested convention, with heated conflicts inside the convention hall and possibly protests and clashes outside, where the result would not be known until the end. This was sometimes referred to in typical media hyperbolic fashion as a ‘Thunderdome’ event. It would be Chicago 1968 all over again. Even if it was not as violent as back then, it would still be a ratings bonanza for the media, allowing for breathless minute-by-minute updates as people tuned in to all the drama. The GOP would also benefit because even though they felt confident about beating Biden, a bruising convention fight would leave the eventual nominee damaged.
But that Thunderdome failed to materialize.
In a highly surprising turn of events, within 48 hours of Biden exiting, Kamala Harris emerged as the clear favorite to become the nominee with all the people speculated as rivals announcing their support for her, party leaders from all over the country providing a steady stream of endorsements, and large numbers of ordinary people contributing money to the Harris campaign and signing up to volunteer.
The transition from Biden to Harris was so smooth that it caught the GOP and the Trump campaign wrong-footed and sputtering and they speculated that the entire process had actually been carefully choreographed behind the scenes by people like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries all working in concert to push Biden out and orchestrate the stream of endorsements to shut the door on any rivals and prevent any possibility of a contested convention. The GOP used the term ‘coup’ to describe it, trying to make it appear undemocratic.
But that kind of silent coordination on a large scale towards a single goal seems highly unlikely. This is, after all, the Democratic party we are talking about, famous for its fractious nature, with competing interests and personalities constantly vying for power, attention, and influence. While there is a consensus in the party leadership when it comes to things like support for the military-industrial-technology complex, so that actions taken to promote them move smoothly and quietly, such a deep and silent consensus does not exist for other most issues.
What we witnessed was a remarkably swift and widespread realization among all those were alarmed at the prospect of a second Trump presidency that they suddenly had a chance of preventing the train wreck and that they were not going to blow it for the sake of individual advantage. The result has been something you rarely see among Democrats – party unity.
That, in itself, is remarkable.
[Republicans] speculated that the entire process had actually been carefully choreographed behind the scenes by people like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries all working in concert to push Biden out and orchestrate the stream of endorsements to shut the door on any rivals and prevent any possibility of a contested convention.
Well, yeah, that’s what political parties EXIST to do: bring together various interest-groups into what (they hope) will be a ruling coalition, and present to the public a unified agenda with a unified voice. Depending on current circumstances, that may or may not involve hotly-contested campaigns for top slots.
My thought on this is that Harris has had 3.5 years in Washington, as the VP of a man old enough that the odds of him either dying or having a career-ending medical event were probably around 50%. She had immense incentive to spend that entire time lining up allies, making friends, and convincing potential rivals to hold off. All while studying up on everything she would need to know in order to step into the presidency as seamlessly as possible when it abruptly became necessary. She would have had to be a fool not to do everything possible to prep herself for the job, and I don’t think she is a fool. And she would also want to do this with as little attention from the media as possible, to keep the Republicans from getting their backs up and attacking her prematurely.
I don’t think that she planned for exactly the way things happened, but I think she had very much planned for the general *idea* of being ready to step in as President with as little drama as possible. And, given that she appears to be pulling it off, I think this is probably the strongest possible recommendation that she is likely to, in fact, be a good President. I mean, that what the President is supposed to do -- persuade people to cooperate to get things done. Saying that it was “carefully choreographed behind the scenes” shouldn’t be considered a slam, it should be considered high praise for doing the job the way it needs to be done.
IANA conspiracy buff, but I do wonder if George Clooney’s call for Biden to step down was a part of a multi-pronged operation. To me George has never seemed to be a rock-the-boat kind of person, so it surprised me; but in hindsight it could well have been part of a complex plan to let Biden out easy.
I think people are creating far too much of a conspiracy here. Once he decided to step aside Biden was perfectly placed to pick a replacement. Whoever Biden gave his recommendation to was instantly the number one choice but he didn’t have to give one. He could have stepped down and let the convention select a replacement.
It is likely that Biden decided to step aside several days before going public and used that time to help Harris line things up. It would explain the speed with which key party individuals gave Harris their support. There is no need for some complex conspiracy.
I don’t think it was very complicated.
1. Harris was the most pragmatic replacement. She had the easiest transition from Biden’s campaign team and was the only one with direct access to Biden campaign funds.
2. Recognizing #1, the difficulty of building a campaign from ground zero in a month, and the general fact that this is a tough chance. The leading contenders can wait 4 or 8 years for a better opportunity.
3. Everyone was afraid of failing to unify around a candidate quickly. Personally, I never thought any of the quick-fire primary ideas were likely to be all that informative, or would offer all that much information about who the “best” candidate really was. The loss in terms of opportunity cost vastly outweighed the potential benefit.
All of the incentives aligned toward a single outcome.
Of course there are some people who think everything is a conspiracy by ‘deep state elites’, either because they are brainwashed or they are deeply out of touch with the average American.
When the Women’s March was spontaneously staged as a protest against scum being POTUS there were so many dudes trying to mansplain to us that it was all organized behind the scenes by either George Soros or a Palestinian woman who I had never heard of.
They simply couldn’t imagine that so many women were spontaneously angry about the sexist shitshow that was the 2016 election.
Harris is the only realistic replacement for Biden. She was already on the ticket so had already been through the primaries.
The fact that she hit the ground running is simply the result of her being a highly competent person. I think America is truly energized by the opportunity to elect a progressive woman for President. (Who run the world?)
I like Scalzi’s take on this; that Biden had likely decided to drop out, but delayed to announcement until it was beneficial, meanwhile getting stuff lined up for an almost seamless transition:
https://whatever.scalzi.com/2024/07/22/biden-harris-trump-and-2024/
I don’t know the details, but I’ve also heard people say that any other candidate would have legal/logistical issues accessing the campaign money already raised by Biden/Harris, bur for some reasons, Harris/? would have easier access. (I have no idea on the specifics, just something I’ve heard a few people talk about)
lochaber@8,
If that’s right, Biden deserves an Oscar! In the absence of convincing evidence to the contrary, I think his reluctance to step aside was entirely genuine, and he only decided to do so when Pelosi and others confronted him with internal polling showing he was practically certain to lose. As Scalzi himself (who was opposed to Biden stepping aside and is still moaning about how badly he was treated, as if Biden’s feelings matter compared to beating Trump) says at your link:
It still does even after I’ve read Scalzi’s argument to the contrary. Pelosi may have pointed out that immediately after the RNC was good timing and would enable Biden to put one over on Trump, but I think she and others would have got him out earlier if they could -- after all, distracting attention from the RNC by announcing a week earlier would also have been good, and they wouldn’t want to risk him changing his mind again if they’d once got him to agree to go. Nor could they have known there would be such an instant rush of grassroots relief and enthusiasm (and money). I’m very much with timothyeisele@2 and DrVanNostrand@5: Harris was ready because she’s been getting ready to take over at a moment’s notice ever since she was picked in 2020, and sheer self-interest combined with the absolute necessity of beating Trump was enough to keep other possible contenders quiet. If Biden hadn’t immediately endorsed Harris things might have been different, but she was his choice in 2020, so unless she’d pissed him off in the subsequent 4 years, why wouldn’t he?
When Biden dropped out of the race, all the GQP’s propaganda aimed at him became obsolete—all the money they spent on “BIDEN SUXX” attack ads may as well have been set on fire. As well, the GQP had to switch gears, try to gin up a fresh, shiny new “HARRIS SUXX” propaganda program on short notice.
Now, Biden is a politician with decades of hands-on experience dealing with other politicians from the friendly to the unremittingly hostile. Given the positive boosts to the Democratic Party which have happened as a result of the whole “Harris, not Biden” deal, it would not surprise me at all to learn that said deal was done with Biden’s full foreknowledge, if not his active planning.
I think Biden realized that he did not have the stamina for another four years after the poor debate, NATO summit, and then getting Covid.
The trepidation over Kamala Harris was the concern that America would get a repeat of all the misogynistic attacks that resulted in the 2016 tfg win, plus added racism.
The maga crowd is obliging with the open racism and misogyny, but happily, the vast majority of America doesn’t seem to be on board with their hate.