What a beautiful photo!
What a disaster! Nature is contemplating the consequences of a major volcanic eruption.
Geological evidence from volcanic deposits over the past 60,000 years suggests a 1-in-6 probability of a massive eruption occurring this century.
If that happened in the next 5 years, the costs would be colossal. In an extreme scenario, the economic impacts would cost more than US$3.6 trillion in the first year and $1.2 trillion more over subsequent years, owing to the effects of extreme weather, reduced crop yields and food instability, according to the insurance and reinsurance market Lloyd’s of London, which assessed these risks in May.
The article discusses the effect of global warming, and how climate change may worsen the effects of a major eruption. We seem to be doing exactly what would amplify the consequences.
Modelling of past eruptions can tell us a lot. But, in a hotter world, many physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, in oceans and on land will also change. For example, global warming heats the lower atmosphere and cools the stratosphere. Alteration of atmospheric layers will affect how volcanic plumes spread and how high they reach.
Changes in circulation patterns will also affect how aerosols spread and grow. For example, faster air flows from the tropics to higher latitudes, which are already observed as a consequence of warming, hamper the coagulation of aerosols from eruptions in the tropics. Smaller aerosols scatter sunlight more efficiently and cool Earth’s surface more.
The oceans will also be affected. Global warming increases ocean stratification that then acts as a barrier to mixing of deep and shallow waters. Volcanic eruptions might thus disproportionately cool the upper layers of water and the air masses above the ocean.
Are we prepared for the consequences? No, we are not prepared. I welcome the appearance of volcano-deniers joining the climate-change-deniers to make everything a little bit worse.
As well as happening in a warmer climate, the next Tambora-like eruption will occur in a more interconnected world that supports eight times the population of 1815. Agricultural systems would suddenly face lower levels of sunlight, cooler weather and altered moisture patterns — all in close succession. Outsized societal impacts might follow.
For example, the 1991 Pinatubo eruption resulted in a 9% reduction in global maize (corn) yields and a 5% reduction in wheat, rice and soya-bean production. Crop failures from a more massive eruption would hit global breadbasket regions simultaneously — China, the United States, India, Russia and Brazil, which together produce most of the world’s wheat, maize, rice and soya beans. Loss of harvests would disrupt global food security and supply chains, potentially triggering unrest, conflict and migration.
One bit of optimistic news: I immediately thought of the Yellowstone supervolcano.
Currently, the annual probability of a volcanic eruption at Yellowstone is estimated to be around 0.001 percent, which Stelten said is “probably an overestimate for the short term.”
There are no signs of an impending eruption, as the magmatic system beneath Yellowstone is mostly solid.
Whew. Nice to know one catastrophe is unlikely, we’ve had enough of them lately.
Walter Solomon says
I guess it’s not all bad news then?
charles says
Taal volcano is an island within the caldera of a super volcano my search just now says erupted 150000 to 5600 years ago. If you want to see it “Peoples park in the sky” in Tagaytay is a nice place to visit. If you’re more adventurous visit taalvolcano.org for information about hiking trips.
shermanj says
In 1959 the Kingston Trio sang “The Merry Minuet”
it is still pertinent today (excerpt):
But we can be tranquil
And thankful and proud
For man’s been endowed
With a mushroom shaped cloud
And we know for certain
That some lovely day
Someone will set the spark off
And we will all be blown away
They’re rioting in Africa
They’re starving in Spain
There’s hurricanes in Florida
And Texas needs rain
They’re rioting in Africa
There’s strife in Iran
What nature doesn’t do to us
Will be done by our fellow man
seachange says
The photo above is from four years ago. Phivolcs says that Batangas Taal is alert level one as of 13 November 2024. There was some activity in October ’24 before this, so this particular alert level one is interesting, geologically speaking.
What PZ has omitted is what causes all these bad things. The things Pinatubo (and other volcanoes) do is: global cooling. Is this global cooling exacerbated due to global warming? I dunno? It seems counterintuitive. Maybe he is having some The Onion level fun with us and I am a dumbnuts and I can’t tell that this is what he is doing. Some global cooling would be nice, if we can get it. So perhaps we don’t care either way.
Volcanoes, they just aren’t as efficient at that sort of cooling-the-world thing as nuclear war would be though. tsk
rabbitbrush says
That photo sure looks like an “AI” creation and/or manipulation.
whheydt says
And meanwhile in Iceland… They have several volcanic systems that are under glaciers or ice caps. They’ve started a three year study to look into what effect melting the overlaying ice will have on three of their most active volcanic systems. One researcher thinks that removing the ice will triple the magma production, but doesn’t know if that will cause bigger or more frequent eruptions.