It’s not looking good for Florida today.
- Helene is currently a category 2 hurricane with wind speeds of 100 mph. It is expected to make landfall on Florida’s Big Bend this evening as at least a category 3 hurricane, bringing the risk of devastating damage.
- The storm was 320 mph south-west of Tampa as of 8 a.m. ET, traveling north-east at 12 mph.
- A storm surge warning is in place for almost the entirety of Florida’s west coast, where surging waters described as “unsurvivable” could reach as high as 20 feet in places.
- Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in place across coastal areas of southern Florida. The National Hurricane Center said: “Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.”
- A state of emergency has been declared in 61 of Florida’s 67 counties and several are under evacuation orders.
If you’re in Florida (or the states above it), quit reading this stupid blog and get yourself to someplace safe.
The Waffle Houses are closing! Time to panic!
Is it still legal to tell Floridians bad weather is coming?
Every cloud has a silver lining.
JD Vance postpones Georgia campaign stops due to Hurricane Helene
The only people I know in Florida can’t afford to go anywhere else.
Here’s hoping Mar-e-lago goes underwater and gets destroyed in this. Without any innocent casualties of people just working there fro their living but still, please.
Hopefully that might help end Climate Denialism? Which must be running out of time under weight of catstrophe after catastrophe after catastrophe with obvious climate dots to join anyhow surely? Might be a good distraction and get pople’s attention on an issue that is, y’know, only destroying the world as we know it right now and going to affect everyone for the remainder of our lives and get ever worse into an ever grimmer future because we keep refusing to actually take serious action and have been failing here since the 1980s.
@ NitricAcid : I hope they are safe and stay safe and don’t lose out too badly.
I do NOT extend this hope to the Trump kultists, DeathSantis & other Repugs there. Its time there were consequences (Karma of a kind) for them. For the guilty not the innocent here.
I so wish I could believe the universe was just and fair. I really hope some sort of actual ethcial justice might prevail.
@ Kip T.W. : “Is it still legal to tell Floridians bad weather is coming?”
Yes – but ONLY if you very very carefully and specifiically do NOT tellthem WHY it is coming I think..
Meanwhile we have rivers drying up in the middle of the greatest of all rainforests, the Amazon and Paicfiic islands literally vanishing and so much more and worse all around the globe..
@4 StevoR
It’s on the opposite side of Florida from this storm. But maybe if we rename it Mars-a-lago, Leon Musk can colonize it.
Re: SteveR @ #5…
If I’m not mistaken, Mar-a-Lago is on the eastern coast of Florida, while Helene is going to hit the western coast.
I know this is bad but over the past decade plus, my empathy turns off whenever a deep red state is facing or has a disaster. Part of it is because of Super Storm Sandy. I live in NJ and was perturbed when many of the red states voted down Ferdal Aid for its victims. The rest is because, well, they act like red states.
I don’t hope for the worst (for them), but I have difficulty finding a positive attitude towards their situation.
StevoR@4: “Hopefully that might help end Climate Denialism?”
That’s one of the things I just can’t wrap my head around. By now climate change has become fucking obvious pretty much everywhere, we just had yet another summer flood here in Europe, draughts and forest fires in regions which hardly knew the problem until some years ago…
And what’s the consequence here in Germany for example? People vote for the fascists who still claim climate change isn’t real.
And I’m pretty sure Dumpf will still win Florida.
Hope all the people who read this from Florida will be save.
Florida was on its way to requiring homes built on coastal barrier islands, that would certainly be destroyed by the action of tides, could no be rebuilt. This was during Bob Graham’s administration. However, the Coastal Zone Management department was dismantled by Graham and the only thing we do today is put homes on stilts. The state will replace water, sewer, power, roads, and bridges for those wealthy enough to build on these islands. Isn’t that nice of them?
I’m outside the cone and won’t be eating an eye wall on this one, but right now I’m in a tornado warned area from Helene’s outer bands. Lovely.
Sadly Helene won’t be the last this season, though it has so far been less active than anticipated by the experts.
Seen similiar more up to date version on SBS World News tonight (can’t find online now annoyingly) but this via BBC here – Is unprecedented drought pushing the Amazon to the brink? (yes, yes it is, 10 mins lng.) then there’s
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-10/tuvalu-minister-makes-cop26-speech-from-sea/100608344
Plus Extreme waves hit US Army base in the Marshall Islands (1 min 50 secs) If ever there was a visual metaphor and please can something like that be what happens at Trump’s place ASAP?
@7. Reginald Selkirk & #8. whheydt : “If I’m not mistaken, Mar-a-Lago is on the eastern coast of Florida, while Helene is going to hit the western coast.”
Dangnabbit. Whelp, here’s hoping that storm changes direction to a more karmically apt one and yet more proof there’s no gawd..
@ Hemidactylus : best wishes, stay safe.
As for a hurricane hitting Mar-a-Lago; It is situated on the east coast of Florida and for ultimate damage to be done it would take a powerful storm in the Atlantic tracking directly west with a collision course perpendicular to the coastline, this is a rare scenario. The last storm that tracked like this was Andrew in 1992. Plus, Mar-a-Lago would need to be in right front quadrant of the storm. You would need the perfect placement of the storm in relation to Mar-a-Lago. The odds of this combination are very low, but not undoable.
Spent nearly a quarter century living on the coast. No more.
StevoR@4: Hopefully that might help end Climate Denialism? Which must be running out of time under weight of catstrophe after catastrophe after catastrophe with obvious climate dots to join anyhow surely?
Really doesn’t matter, as we’ll soon enough be back to getting ready to blow ourselves up.
@4 SteveoR wrote: Here’s hoping Mar-e-lago goes underwater and gets destroyed in this. Without any innocent casualties of people just working there fro their living but still, please.
I reply: I Wholeheartedly Agree! FLATTEN SMARM-A-LAGO! (but, without innocent injury!)
Oh, and the tRUMP idiocy about how climate change/global warming sea level rise ‘will just create more beachfront property’. Why is this deteriorating, hate-spewing, convicted felon not already in prison?????
I listened to an interesting podcast on climate denialism that made the claim that most lay people who are denialists (i.e., people who aren’t politicians and shills on the payroll of big oil; plain ordinary everyday folk like you and me) are denialists because they appreciate the implications of climate change and can’t bring themselves to acknowledge the disaster that is about to unfold. If climate change is real, we are looking at parts of the planet being uninhabitable; millions of people migrating to escape famine, drought and war over dwindling resources; massive species die-offs; significant dietary changes since a lot of the foods we eat will simply no longer be available; etc. etc. etc. It is far more comforting to simply pretend it’s not coming than to think through the consequences of when it does. And, of course, the only really effective ways to stop climate change at this point would completely crash the economy, and no politician of any political persuasion is going to do that.
Contrast that with people who do believe climate change is real but who nevertheless continue to live a lifestyle that makes it worse. People who fly to exotic vacations, eat foods imported from halfway around the world, buy all kinds of crap made in China, and live in resource-consuming houses far larger and grander than what they really need.
So, which group is worse: The ones who deny climate change, or the ones who acknowledge climate change but live as if it weren’t?
Here’s the URL if anyone else wants to listen to it:
Apologies for being a threadhog but for those who haven’t seen Jane Goodall’s Colbert interview, well she makes a few bloody good points here – Jane Goodall On Voting To Save The Planet, And Why Male Politicians Are Like Chimpanzees (5 mins & 5 secs mark onwards but whole interview lasts 8 & half min and worth wacthing.)Know we’re not meant tohave heroes but Jane Goodall and Steven Colbert .. (among others & yeah,,sure not perfect & all ) really are.
@ 20 . awomanofnoimportance : There’s more than 2 groups & the ones that are worst are the one’s who actively make things worse. The Climate and science deniers wand those with vested interests who know the truth but keep destroying everything for everybody – quite fucking literally – becoz they get some short-term profit outta doing so.
According to the forecast discussion it’s likely to land as category 4, but more importantly, it’s among the biggest storms the gulf has ever seen. When it lands, almost the entire state of Florida will be facing tropical storm or worse conditions. Already a lot of it is in a tropical storm.
The saving grace is that it’s fast moving, so it won’t intensify as much as it could, and the rain won’t pile up as much as some recent storms caused.
numerobis@24
A downside of Helene’s fast moving nature is that it may not dissipate as quickly as slower storms and may impact deeply into Georgia and further. The rain in Atlanta and mountainous areas further north may get pretty bad. The weird thing about Helene is the slingshotting around a low projected to influence it coming from the north. Tornado guy Reed Timmer talked about this as an instance of the Fujiwhara effect though I don’t know if that’s a correct application of that concept.
I hope Helene doesn’t ramp up toward Ian or Michael intensities.
The 6Z GFS projects deja vu all over again in 10 days…Oct 6th (another tropical system heading for the panhandle):
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024092606&fh=240
On my @25 I should have said toward the FL Gulf coast in general. Yesterday it seemed toward panhandle but since then the target has shifted further south. 10 days is too far out to take too seriously but another storm may be in the works for the Gulf of Mexico.
Well maybe scrap that projection as the 12Z GFS is apparently going in another direction:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024092612&fh=282
My heart started beating again…
You would need the perfect placement of the storm in relation to Mar-a-Lago. The odds of this combination are very low, but not undoable.
And God has shitty aim, so we really can’t count on this happening.
Seconded! Every Trump property devoured by the waves is an improvement.
Clarkesville,Ga. At the foot of the Appalachian mountains. Shenandoah, the classic tabby, and I set in the basement yesterday with the civil defense sirens wailing and pinging text messages warnings to take cover immediately! We were squarely in the path of a tornado. Fortunately all we lost was the power for a few hours from a tree going down near the town square and some time sitting in the dark. All the schools are cancelled for today and tomorrow. The town is very quiet as we wait for the arrival of tropical storm force winds and record rain. I had almost 18 cm of rain in the rain gauge at 10 am this morning. We’ve been in drought, so rain in moderation is welcome. Did grocery shopping yesterday. Only grocery store was a madhouse! Cat has plenty of food, litter, and treats. Priorities you know!
Oh, and Wednesday night church services were cancelled. Climate denialism is strong in the area. Our county will go strongly for Trump again in this election.
I’m so glad my aunt moved out of Florida at 96 years old and as crazy as that place had become … that hurricane is now a level 3 . It freaks me out because I remember that Sandy, which did so much damage to Long Island, was a level 1 . As much as I’d love to see a red state lose the election I don’t wish this on them
Hemidactylus, Becky Smith
I hope you are both able to stay safe
mordred @ 10
Ex conservative/ex-anti-environmentalist here. I can’t say how other right wingers may rationalize the matter, but here’s how I would have:
Assuming that the data is accurate and not fabricated by the Marxists that control academia and the sciences, throughout history climate has changed. Sometimes it get’s warmer, sometimes it get’s colder. That doesn’t mean that our use of fossil fuels is the cause. Those who hate individual rights and free enterprise are merely using these natural phenomenon to advance their tyrannical agenda.
There. It’s easy if you don’t trust science because of religious and/or ideological reasons. It was only after I started to doubt capitalism and religion did I start to consider that the hippies and eco-freaks I used to disparage may have been actually right.
mordred @ 10
Ex conservative/ex-anti-environmentalist here. I can’t say how other right wingers may rationalize the matter, but here’s how I would have:
Assuming that the data is accurate and not fabricated by the Marxists that control academia and the sciences, throughout history climate has changed. Sometimes it get’s warmer, sometimes it get’s colder. That doesn’t mean that our use of fossil fuels is the cause. Those who hate individual rights and free enterprise are merely using these natural phenomenon to advance their tyrannical agenda.
There. It’s easy if you don’t trust science because of religious and/or ideological reasons. It was only after I started to doubt capitalism and religion did I start to consider that the hippies and eco-freaks I used to disparage may have been actually right.
Whoops… Sorry, I don’t know how that got double posted.
awomanofnoimportance @ 20
In my experience, amongst the climate denialists and anti-environmentalists I knew and associated with, the reasoning went like this, Environmentalists are leftists. Leftists want to take away our personal freedoms (namely the “economic” ones) and force us to live in socialist slavery. Leftists will lie to get what they want (unlike godly, freedom-loving Americans). ERGO: Climate Change is a lie.
Granted, this is early-90s through early 00s right wing thinking. The excuses may have changed since.
This is one of the GOAT sites for tropical system analyses:
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/09/huge-hurricane-helene-accelerates-toward-florida/
I learned a new term “predecessor rain event (PRE)”. It sucks!:
The Masters/Henson blog post should be read in its entirety to get an idea how horrific this storm will be. Not only does taking an eye wall at ground zero when Helene comes ashore at whatever intensity suck, the crapfest of winds and rainfall is going to extend far from Florida.
Not sure if I will get any more tornado warnings from outer bands. Frankly the bottom end of devastating spring and fall squall lines that send multiple tornados through tornado alley further north of here are much scarier IMO for me right now. I clipped some roof overhanging branches yesterday. It’s pretty windy and sprinkly. I’m far more worried about the places along the Florida Gulf coast and inland Georgia etc. that will bear the brunt of Helene. I feel fortunate that things are much less intense here.
Tornado warnings do suck though. Yet routine summer sea breeze convergence thunderstorms give us those. Of all the hurricanes I’ve been through since 2004, the most tree damage I’ve encountered was from some rando microburst/downdraft thingy in a small night time thunderstorm around 2008ish. Multiple close by lightning strikes every second. Huge temperature drop. No power.
Of course Reed Timmer is going to chase this nail biter. Timmer’s gonna Timmer. Yipes. If anyone wants to rubberneck:
https://www.youtube.com/live/vo0NhYV00pk?si=JEXUzh49lqKX42Ql
Not exactly sure where he is in relation to expected (or actual!) landfall.
Loathe as I am turn a potential disaster into political capital, Ms.Harris would be wise to visit these states immediately after the hurricane passes with a fleet of FEMA trucks at her heels. She should use the opportunity to tell the residents of these pro-Trump areas that she’ll do more than toss out rolls of paper towels like Trump did, nor will she withhold disaster aid from states that didn’t support her like Trump has threatened.
Latest update.
Helene is now a category 4 storm.
The satellite photo shows that it is a very wide storm as well.
Landfall in 4 hours.
Looking at Weather Underground I see bands offshore in Atlantic but nothing impacting me in near future, the eastern extent of the actual storm seems just west of Orlando over Clermont. Stuff coming ashore around Cape Coral and Naples could eventually break off my way later tonight. There’s stuff over the center of Cuba now that may find its way to my area. Everything is popping way west of me on the other coast.
The interest in Helene seems to have crashed the Tropical Tidbits website. It’s been toast for a while now. Weathernerds was tanking on its ensemble models earlier.
“The storm is a punishment from the LORD because we weren’t hateful and intolerant enough”
Facts don’t matter for those people, only feelings. If admitting that you were wrong makes you feel bad, then you were not wrong and the facts support whatever it is you were already doing. It’s another effect we can lay at the feet of toxic masculinity were showing any “weakness” (which admitting you are wrong totally is for those people) is prohibited and you must look strong and dominant at all times.
Aussie ABC news here :
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-27/hurricane-helene-makes-landfall-in-florida/104405652
Plus BBC here -live and lookslike more up to date : https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ckgmx8vm8pnt
Whilst space dot com has the view from the ISS here : https://www.space.com/hurricane-helene-video-from-space-station-nasa-livestream
The only thing the destruction of Mar-a-lago would lead to is a rash of conspiracy theories on the right, ranging from the “mild” one that the Biden controlled authorities didn’t properly warn Trump so something could be done, to variations on the idea “Sleepy Joe” used his secret weather machine to try to kill Trump.
Reading the updates this morning it appears that while there is a lot of damage to electrical lines, and of course flooding, the mass casualties and destruction to buildings did not occur.
I am curious as to how homes on Clearwater Island can burn to the ground while experiencing torrential rain, but I have little sympathy for mega-mansions built in floodplains. Perhaps Florida will learn about such modern concepts as building codes, and protecting barrier islands from development before all insurers refuse to issue homeowners insurance in Florida.
Tethys: the fire has a nice protected place to burn under the roof.
@numerobis
True, but it seems odd that they would have house fires starting in homes that were recently evacuated and currently cut off from electric service. If there is no power to those homes, how are they combusting?
I remember houses burning to the ground when the Red River catastrophically flooded the Fargo-Morehead area, but they started as electrical fires and the flood wasn’t accompanied by pouring rain.
Ruptured gas line?