I pretty much agree with everything this guy says, except for the clumsy Batman analogy, but I fear it might be too late. I don’t have much hope that today’s primaries will change the trajectory of the electorate towards the moderate centrist. Ick.
But sure, vote for whoever wins the nomination. You know, the Democrats had a low bar to hurdle this time around, it’s rather depressing that they picked the guy that barely clears it.
Too late!
We could have had a candidate with energy and vision. Instead we get Biden.
Or else…Bernie, who isn’t better.
@robertrichter
You think Bernie’s not better than multi liar, republican clone, do nothing Biden!
jack16
I love Cody!
It’s not over yet. Biden is getting all of the anti-endorsements. Hot off the press: Michigan GOP mayor who backed Trump in 2016 will support Biden
Also, his best strategy right now is apparently to coast along, with as little interaction with the public as possible, so that people won’t notice that he’s not the same Joe Biden from a few years ago who everyone so fondly remembers.
That can’t be easy to sustain for very long, especially if at the same time he’s got to confront his brother’s fraud allegations and similar ones about his son. Whether or not you agree with his shit politics, all of this makes it hard to see him as a sensible, reasonable choice, with good chances of beating Trump.
@#4, consciousness razor:
Yes, well, most people who are considering Biden don’t have enough political awareness to even notice any of that. Biden’s support comes from people who would be just as happy as Republicans under Trump but who by historical coincidence are registered as Democrats instead. (Look at all the similarities: they trust rhetoric rather than history to choose their candidate, they are incapable of noticing when their candidate is telling obvious lies, they support policies which will harm people under the impression that the people being harmed will not be them — like Biden’s announcement that even if the Democrats took Congress and passed Medicare for All he would veto it…)
What is the point of voting Democratic if this guy gets the nomination? Even the “but but but Supreme Court” argument fails — he’s the guy who gave us Clarence Thomas, he’s already proven that his choices will be as right-wing as any Republican!
@1
I’m interested to hear why you think that applies to Sanders, given that the main support for his campaign has come from his open and active support for actual progressive policies, whereas Biden is a regressive bigot with dementia.
Both now and in 2016, I’ve been puzzled about why Sanders is even allowed to run as a Democrat. He was elected as an “Independent” and is still generally listed that way.
@#7, whheydt:
It’s mutual benefit. If he ran as Independent, the Democratic Party would definitely lose the election, no question. Polls show he’s at least as popular with the public at large than any of the “real” Democrats, if not moreso, so unless the “real” Democrat withdrew from the race and endorsed him they would just spoil the election for each other. (Independents who lean Democratic hate the Democratic leadership and tend to lean further left than the actual party does.) Meanwhile, he is spared the batch of hurdles which the two major parties have put in place against 3rd-party candidates.
@whheydt:
I’ve heard this a few times and I can’t understand why people bring it up. Does brand loyalty matter so much to you? Would you vote for Trump if he decides to register and run as a D?
reads comments Ah, so we’re at the “both sides are just as bad” place again despite the fact that the Republicans and the Hamberdler are demonstratively worse on pretty much every metric every time.
His attacks on Anita Hill were unconscionable and Thomas should not be on the court, but a Democratic majority senate confirmed him was from a time when nominations very rarely got quashed (plenty of Dems voted against him, but again, the senate at the time wasn’t as broken so a few would have voted yes to get him through).
Thinking he’s going to nominate a Federalist Society stooge is just nonsense though.
For Biden vs Trump:
Biden is obviously better than Trump for short-term, obviously.
But I’m not sure Biden is better than Trump for longer term. It is likely that Republicans can hold the senate in 2020 while Democrats can hold the house. However, a feckless and senile Democratic president can damage the Dems in 2022 house/senate elections. Furthermore, Democrats will need to find another candidate in 2024 as it is very unlikely that the old Joe can run then. So Democrats could lose again the presidency, house and the senate in 2024.
Tabby Lavalamp:
You’re apparently in the “I want to prop up the Biden campaign” stage.
If he does get the nomination, that will happen in mid-July, which is four months away. That’s four extra months of pro-Biden bullshit that we wouldn’t need to hear, from people who claim to side with the left. Try to imagine all of the better and more constructive things we could be doing with that much time. We’re in a desperate spot now, so I’d even settle for something less than all of it — just pick any one thing that comes to mind, which is better than that.
None of Biden’s gigantic problems are a secret, and not a single one of them is being ignored by Republicans. His loss will be his fault, the party’s fault, and the fault of everyone working against the only decent candidate left in the race.
I find it so despicable that the media continues to give Joe a pass, rather than treat Sanders as an actual candidate with potential to beat Trump in the general. It’s actually impressive how naked the pundits’ efforts are now to “manufacture consent” and prop up Biden. They’re not even hiding it any more. Biden is a habitual liar whose brain is made of swiss cheese. Even before his mind left the building, he was a terrible politician. Listen to Nathan Robinson on “Intercepted” podcast today for all you need to know about the man. Yes, I’ll still vote for Biden against Trump, but that shouldn’t have to be the choice.
Biden sucks, but I’m not sure how the guy that can’t beat shitty Joe Biden among the subset of voters most sympathetic to his political stances is the better choice for the general based on “likelihood to win.”
What is this strange alchemy that converts substantial losses in the Democratic Primary into victory in the General?
And again, I prefer Bernie to Biden. I prefer every other centrist in the Democratic primary field to Biden. How we ended up with him instead of Klobuchar, Harris, Booker, or even fucking Beto is baffling.
@11:
These are basically my feelings (though I’m not so sure about him being unable to run in 2024, or that short of hospitalization and/or death that it would stop him).
For what it’s worth, I’ve decided that voting is no effort and essentially worthless, so for now I’m won over by “lesser of two evils”. Eventually the party needs to learn how to win midterms whilst we have a president. I think we need a good president for that, but possibly good downstream political strategy could work. I’ve simply decided that if/when Biden wins the primary, my volunteer time and money goes downstream. Biden will have to win votes with the machine he has, because I’m not interested in being a part of that.
I’m considering volunteering for or donating to the person primarying Pelosi who will be facing her in the general thanks to how California primaries work (like, legit solid setup).
@mrquotidian:
The general media will never acknowledge Sanders as a viable contender, because he terrifies their obscenely wealthy owners. People like Bloomberg would rather have Trump badly running things than someone who will make the wealthy actually pay their damn taxes. Any acknowledgement they give him will always be grudging, with a side of “but don’t worry folks, the boogyman isn’t really going to get elected.”
When did you decide that he “can’t” do it? Was it around the time when Biden got a relatively small delegate lead from some southern states which aren’t going to swing for a Democrat in the general election?
@#14, doubtthat:
What makes you think Democrats are the subset of voters most sympathetic to Sanders? Left-leaning Independents match Sanders a lot more — most of them are people who left the party because they can’t stand the Centrist direction of the last 30 years, and those people apparently outnumber the roughly-50% of the party who support Biden (and supported Clinton last time).
Remember: the Democrats haven’t been the largest group of registered voters for a long time now — Independents have, and more than half of Independents, according to polls, are “Democrat-leaning”. In order to win, Democrats need people outside the party to vote for them, and Republicans demonstrated last time that they won’t, no matter how much they are courted. If you want to court the Republicans again, a course which has most recently lost, then pick Biden. If you want to court Independents again, a course which worked for Obama, then pick Sanders. This is not rocket science.
@14
There’s a couple of problems with this argument, but one of them is that the well has been poisoned with a self-fulfilling “who will beat Trump” argument. A lot of people are voting not on whom they like the best but who they think will win. Some soft evidence for this is that in every exit poll M4A is winning policy with voters, even in states where Biden won in a landslide.
This sort of stuff is a known problem in voting. Like, there’s a large amount of people who will vote based on who they think will win. Also, the first choice in a ballot gets some votes for free.
But in any case, we’d have a better idea of who had a stronger chance of winning against Trump with a primary where every state allowed all voters to vote in it. Of course, there’s a bunch of things to improve in the process, both primary and general. But really this primary process does not necessarily pick the strongest in the field going into the general (on any metric). Though it does at least weed out some incredibly weak candidates.
Also, good to see you again, doubtthat, you may have noticed that my mind has changed wrt voting for Biden and your arguments are partially responsible. I like to give credit where credit is due, so thanks.
#14 doubtthat
I think your skepticism of Bernie’s chances in the general is totally valid, but I think you’re underestimating the degree to which the Democratic party and media threw their weight behind Biden and waged open war on Sanders. If they had treated Sanders as just another candidate, if there had been more reasonable voices in the mainstream regarding Sanders, I think we would see a different outcome in SC and super Tues. Unlike the Republican establishment in 2016, the Dems very shrewdly consolidated their energy at a crucial time, throwing all their weight behind the “safe” choice.
Now, that obviously prompts your second question.. If Sanders is so weak that attacks from his own side can leave him short, how could he compete in the general? Well, frankly, the Democratic establishment would need to fully support Sanders if he were given the nomination (it’s reasonable to be skeptical of this). But regardless of if that were to happen, I think Sanders would be compelling in a fight against Trump among independent voters precisely because he is anti-establishment. I don’t think it would be a sure-thing by any stretch of the imagination, but I think he would have just as much of a chance, if not better, than Biden.
And you are absolutely right that it’s crazy that Biden prevailed over the other centrist Dem’s. It’s Nuts.
@18 The Vicar (via Freethoughtblogs)
The polling I’ve seen since Super Tuesday has Biden up by double digits among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. This one has Biden up by 19:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/09/majority-prefer-biden-democratic-nomination-over-sanders-poll-says/5003432002/
If you have some polling to indicate that Bernie has some sway with a group of people who aren’t Democrats or Democrat-leaning independents and this group is a sizable percentage of the electorate, I’d be curious to see it.
But again, if there are all these people who just love Bernie but can’t be bothered to register and support him in the primary…what are you saying about the reliability of this support?
@ksiondag
Biden’s favorability ratings are higher than Bernie’s among Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents:
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3657
I point this out with no satisfaction because…what? Why? How? But…that’s what’s happening. I find it all very inexplicable.
It’s certainly the case that a lot of people are voting for Biden based on the “electability” red herring, but it seems like there is genuine support for Biden in excess of support for Bernie. This is both insane and also completely consistent with our nightmarish existence.
I’m glad to hear that – my first presidential vote was cast in 2000 for a gentleman by the name of Ralph Nader. Given what happened in those next 8 years, it’s only the fact that I lived in a deep red state that keeps me from feeling too overwhelmingly guilty.
@ mrquotidian
Listen, I still 100% think Bernie would do much better against Trump in the debates, I think his message is better because, at a minimum, it’s coherent, but also…it seems like more people disagree with me than agree with me even among Democratic Primary voters.
And I should be clear that I’m not asserting that Biden is more electable than Bernie – I genuinely do not know – I’m more reacting to this idea that Bernie is the obvious choice to beat Trump, or that it’s ridiculous to think Biden has the better chance. There are just too many variables and things that haven’t happened yet (there will be a “Hillary’s Emails” for whoever wins), but it does greatly worry me that Bernie has not been able to win over Democratic Primary voters.
Whatever you think of independents, it’s just the case that Democrats support Universal health care, to take one example, way more than independents who support it way more than Republicans.
This poll has support as:
Dem: 74%
Ind: 50%
Rep: 20%
https://www.kff.org/slideshow/public-opinion-on-single-payer-national-health-plans-and-expanding-access-to-medicare-coverage/
You’ll see that same breakdown for just about everything – climate change, criminal justice reform…etc.
So, if Bernie isn’t winning the majority of the 74% crowd, how is he going to win the majority of the 50% crowd?
I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it does seem incredibly unlikely. I fully understand why a large group of people wouldn’t want to gamble on that outcome when the result of failure is so catastrophic.
Just like to share some stuff that dropped into my feeds.
Mike Figueredo talks about Sanders’ Fox town hall appearance. A bit long but good stuff.
A twitter feed with some food for thought: A look at a quantitative study of the Bernie bro myth, some thoughts on Sanders’ electability, and Biden’s non-electability. Strong bias towards Sanders, but warranted I think.
Linked from the Twitter feed, there’s a longer article in Salon about the study.
@#10, Tabby Lavalamp:
During the last 10 years, he was one of those demanding that the ACA be amended to ensure federal funds would never be used for abortion, and he gave speeches against marijuana legalization which involved Reefer-Madness-style imagery. Within the last year, he has said that if he’s nominated “nothing significant will change” and “nobody’s standard of living will change”. He keeps telling people to go vote Republican — and although the most recent example was an irritated blow-up at somebody who dared to question him at a town hall meeting, within the last month he has been encouraging people to do that seriously. He has always been a faithful servant of the banks and credit card companies, and he believes in “tough on crime” stances so thoroughly that some Reagan-era and GWB-era Republicans considered him too extreme. Why wouldn’t he nominate a Federalist Society stooge? It’s entirely in line with his demonstrated history — what’s far more unlikely is that he will act with his current rhetoric and keep his hands off the abortion debate or Wall Street. Don’t forget — “centrists” count on a hard turn rightward after the convention.
I’m just going to leave this here:
https://www.theroot.com/an-open-letter-to-white-liberals-blaming-low-informatio-1842100419
Check your privilege.
We also have some more specific ideas now, about who may be running things for real, while Biden spends much of his time in hiding and not doing anything too embarrassing for the administration.
Biden’s people are brazen liars, so I don’t care what they may disavow after a report like this is released. Here are the types of people we could look forward to, in the Dream Team which is meant to save us all from the baddies:
— Mike Bloomberg, World Bank
— Jaime Dimon (JP Morgan Chase), Treasury
— Anne Finucane (Bank of America), Treasury
— Tom Nides (Morgan Stanley), Commerce
— Pete Buttigieg (McKinsey & South Bend, Indiana) Ambassador to the UN or U.S. trade representative
— Kamala Harris, Attorney General, if not VP
— my guess for Health & Human Services: some corporate hack for the insurance industry
And more of the predictable names like Klobuchar, Booker, etc., may find a spot somewhere.
It’s weird how progressives (or at least people campaigning as progressives) win the general election while moderates and centrists don’t, but how some people are just so stubborn as to refuse to acknowledge that lesson every election cycle. Failing strategies need to be abandoned. Anything else is the same kind of rejection of reality that conservatives are known for.
Biden can’t win against Trump. It’s that simple. You can honestly and truly believe that his values are more in line with yours than Sanders’ are, you can honestly believe that Biden is in your corner more than Sanders is or would be. I’m not disputing that, I’m not going to argue that. It doesn’t matter because Biden just can’t win against Trump. Any other Republican we’re familiar with? Absolutely, Biden wound trounce them. Clinton could’ve beaten anyone the Republicans put up in 2016… except the one they did put up, exactly as was predicted by everyone who’s paid attention to the historical trends in how elections go in the US. Candidates campaigning on shaking things up win against candidates who promise to keep things going as they are. Biden is in the same boat, except he’s not campaigning on staying the course we’re on, he’s campaigning on taking us back to the conditions that made Trump a viable candidate in the first place. Who the ever loving heck is he going to win over with that message that he needs to win over?
At this point, it isn’t even merely the argument that Sanders is the overall better candidate. It is just a simple matter of fact that Sanders can beat Trump and Biden can’t. If you’re the type of person who wants to vote for the safest choice to beat Trump, because what matters most to you is getting Hair Fuhrer out of office, you may just have to swallow your pride and vote for Sanders in your upcoming primary. Anything else is going to keep Trump in office (although we all know that if Trump ends up in office, progressives will be blamed for it no matter what).
The way Democrats throw themselves at each others’ throats is so weird to me, viewing it from across the Atlantic. It’s not enough to have a preferred candidate, people are going out of their way to burn bridges and boycott any other candidate, which will probably mean fewer people will turn out to vote than might otherwise. Perhaps the solution would be to throw away winner-takes-all rules and allow for more parties that would have to compromise instead of pretending that two parties representing the entirety of the population is particularly efficient (it isn’t, the tendency is for said parties to take turns in power, wasting resources undoing predecessors’ policies and enacting their own) or affirming of voters’ values (it seems highly unlikely that someone’s views on social, fiscal and other issues can be captured by one of two monolithic parties).
In particular, I’ve been seeing a lot of posts from the black community defending black support for Biden and asking “how dare white elites tell us we’re wrong”. Now, a few caveats: I’m not American, or black. But I do truly believe – again, viewing this as an outsider – that a progressive candidate would much better serve the interests of any minority, including African Americans. I get the sentiment about not wanting to get smart-ass hints from the same group who’s kept you in the underdog position, but when it gets to the point that you become deaf to valid criticisms of Biden’s inability to break from the status quo, doesn’t it make it a knee-jerk reaction? My instinct is to join the chorus of people saying black voters are hurting themselves by supporting Biden, but instead I’ll just leave it as a question: do you find the (white) majority’s criticism of African American support for Biden objectionable? If so, why? And what would Sanders (or any other progressive candidate) have to do to be taken seriously?
Great moments in voting.
I was second in line at my polling place this morning, but I probably should have arrived later.
We have some new equipment in Missouri which happily recorded my information and agreed that I’m a registered voter, but it refused to print out a little piece of paper that gets taken to the next official at the table who actually prints the ballot. And they couldn’t start over with me because the computer insisted that I had already voted.
The manager at the polling place allowed me to submit a provisional ballot and attached a note about what happened. There’s a phone number I can call two weeks from now to find out whether my vote for Bernie was really cast.
If Bernie wins the primary (and Biden’s statement on MfA convinced me to go for Sanders in the primary), he’ll lose the general. Sorry, but as soon as Trump runs against Sanders, Sanders is in trouble. Trump has very carefully not campaigned against him because the ideal case from the Trump viewpoint is for Biden to win the nomination. Biden will almost certainly lose to Trump*, just as Sanders would almost certainly lose to Trump. But since it’s Biden doing the losing, there will be that doubt in people’s minds about whether if they’d gone with the other guy might they have won? Which allows the Republicans to deflect from the fact that the US has not only voted in a fascist, they’re about to re-elect him .
*Unless the stock market crashes far enough to convince the rich guys that they need a competent person in office. Then Trump would be completely screwed because he has no idea at all how to campaign himself. He counts on the billionaires to win it for him.
You should all remember that a major factor last time was Sanders running a scorched earth campaign against Clinton even when his chance of winning the nomination was nil, providing a lot of tRump’s talking points about Crooked Hillary. He will do the same this year.
Sanders ideas and policies are nice on paper and on the stump. He would never be able to enact them.
In the Senate we would need a 60 seat majority, ain’t gonna happen. The constitution has been gerrymandered for conservatives and we have to deal with that.
wow all this is not very encouraging. In talking with others I have suggested that Trump simply can not hold it together for another term. In the long view that might be the best for the realization that a move to the left would be good. that has been a thought of mine but I do not know how real it might be.
If the choice is really going to be a right leaning centrist vs a would be tyrant. I am not so sure that the centrist would be a good thing. Given that as was said above that the biggest group are independents and they have been swinging back and forth between the two parties at least since raygun and it was a plurality that let Clinton prevail. A strong candidate who has a message of change that is resounding amongst the electorate including a certain portion of the republicans as well just might be what is needed to get the attention of the establishment parties and shake things up for real. If the choice is slow death and suffering or faster death and suffering. I know that the entire system including the media really does not want much change but no change has ever been brought about without a lot of struggle and risk but it is looking like it is coming down to the damned if you do and damned if you don’t choice.
uncle frogy
@30
A significant chunk of his policies can be achieved unilaterally, without even touching congress. If he got even one of those policies done, and managed to not invade somewhere in the middle east, he would literally be the most efficacious democrat in my lifespan.
Less than two minutes of Biden on the campaign trail, at a Detroit auto plant….
WORKER: I’d like you to explain how you plan to not only keep us working, but how you intend on getting the union vote, when there is a large portion of union workers that are gun enthusiasts and you are actively trying to end our Second Amendment right and take away our guns.
BIDEN: You’re full of shit.
HANDLER: Alright, thank you guys.
BIDEN: I did not…. [to HANDLER, a woman] No, no, shush. Shush.
[to WORKER] I support the Second Amendment. The Second Amendment, just like right now, if you yell “fire,” that’s not free speech. And from the very beginning, I have a shotgun and I have a 20-gauge, a 12-gauge. My sons hunt. Guess what? You’re not allowed to own any weapon. I’m not taking your gun away … at all. You need a hundred rounds in your? No.
WORKER: You and Beto, when you talk about taking our guns, that means what?
BIDEN: I did not say that.
WORKER: You did.
BIDEN: That’s not tr – I did not say that.
WORKER: It’s a viral video.
BIDEN: Well, it’s a viral video, like the other ones you’re putting out that they’re simply a lie.
WORKER: It was your voice. You said that you’re taking the guns…
BIDEN: Wait-wait-wait-wait. Take your AR, your AR-14s away. [points finger in his face]
WORKER: [waves hand in front of finger] Okay, this is not okay. Alright?
BIDEN: Don’t tell me that, pal. I’m going to go out and slap you in the face.
WORKER: You’re working for me, man!
BIDEN: I’m not working for…
HANDLER: Thank you so much. Thank you so much.
BIDEN: Gimme a break, man. Don’t be such a horse’s ass.
WORKER: You’re pushing up on me.
BIDEN: Look, here’s the deal. Here’s the deal. You able to own a machine gun?
WORKER: Do I own a machine gun?
BIDEN: I said, are you able to own a machine gun?
WORKER: Machine guns are illegal.
BIDEN: That’s right! So why aren’t AR-15s illegal?
WORKER: How is that a machine gun? It’s a semi-automatic….
BIDEN: Do you need a hundred rounds?
WORKER: There are more deaths in America from handguns than there are from what you call “assault rifles.” Why are you advocating for assault rifles, when people are dying from handguns?
Biden then turns away to shake another person’s hand.
That’s the guy who some Dems expect to advocate effectively for stronger gun control. Meanwhile, CNN’s Chris Cilliza claims this was “a very good thing” for Biden, presumably making it a bad thing for Sanders. I’m not funny enough to make that up.
Currently, Biden has 733 delegates to Sanders 633 (total for all primaries).
So Sanders is not dead and gone , whatever corporate media says.
.
There is a real and legitimate concern about Biden showing cognitive impairment but I leave that debate to people who have been following the interviews more closely.
It is half past two in Sweden, I wish you a good night.
@consciousness razor 33: I agree that was a terrible interaction and doesn’t reflect well on Biden, but may I point out that Sanders is also against banning handguns or putting restrictions on anything but assault rifles.
One of his better policies, actually.
It’s not the corporate media that is voting and Sanders is dead and gone. If you think the rather bad trouncing in Michigan is survivable, wait for the state that is twice as big coming up in a week – Florida. The old voters there are going to make Michigan look like a win. Even if Biden absoutely crumbles in the debate, in a week he will slaughter Sanders in the votes. His campaign has almost no hope at all and thinking otherwise is delusional. Wishful thinking is not going to get you anywhere. When all the delagates are allocated from tonight the spread will grow. The states coming up are not favorable. He is finished.
I wasn’t suggesting that the gun nut was right. The problem we have is that Biden is a disaster. Bernie has been trashed by just about everyone, while that confused asshole has been treated like fucking royalty.
This “doesn’t reflect well” on him, you say? Such strong words … but seriously, we are in big trouble, even if Biden somehow beats Trump.
Those posting the “Berniebros was a myth” study, do you guys have any data from 2016? Because I definitely feel there are a lot less Berniebros this time around. So its no surprise to me that toxicity is pretty much even here. But that’s hardly calling it a myth. This time around there’s just a lot less support for Bernie. Most of his followers were more anti-Clinton than pro bernie anyways and used that as an excuse to act like assholes. They are not around anymore. They didn’t actually care. Also a lot of us when we mean Berniebros we are also not just talking about toxicity, but purveyors of conspiracy theories and fake propaganda.
@24
I’m sorry. I’m a little too busy worrying about whether I can afford to pay for gasoline or my monthly refill of psych meds so I can go to the lousy job that offers me paltry wages and sub-par health benefits to check my standings in the National Oppression Olympics.
I’m apologize I’m too Caucasian for your sympathies, but fuck you and the author of the screed you linked to.
@27 What would any progressive do to appeal to black people? Actually sitting down and speaking with them. Thats what Hillary did. They weren’t thrilled about her either. Just having a few famous rappers hold concerts for you wont actually do it. But hey I’m not black so maybe I’m wrong.
@34
And bernie supporters wonder why they lose. All that you said also affects the black population. The goal is to win the primary is it not? If so then convince black people to vote for your guy. Sanders failed at that this time around just like he did in 2016. Getting mad at black people for not solving everything does nothing. At the end of the day bernie is popular among a demographic that doesn’t vote and never bothered to figure out how to be popular among those that do. The left needs to figure out how politics works or you still will have all those problems. Problems I face as well btw.
@19, ksiondag
Doesn’t that essentially turn the whole General Election into a version of this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bracket_(tournament)
(Funnily enough I can’t find any analysis of that as a serious voting system. Maybe I just don’t know the right terms to search for. I suspect it has significant bad properties, but who knows.)
By the way, Biden is going to win, then Trump is going to win. You’re all going to be screwed. Then we’re all going to be screwed.
My favorite line in that link-
“Maybe those “moderates” actually want a revolutionary. More than anyone, they know that revolutionaries get shit done. That’s because old black voters have actually been revolutionaries. They actually lived through revolutions. Simply surviving to become an old black person in the South is a revolutionary act in itself.
Only white liberals would call something a “revolution” that could be defeated by supposedly dumb, old black “centrists.”
Sanders could still win. I voted for him today. But if he loses its the fault of the “revolutionaries”. Because they didnt care enough to show out and vote.
@42:
I don’t think it does, no. Though oddly enough I did think about such a system recently. When I mentioned the idea to a friend he asked, “And when would any of these people actually run the country?”
The reason I don’t think it does is because it isn’t a bunch of one-on-one matches. Though I guess technically the primary has basically become that and also that the general allows more candidates. So I guess it’s a two-round tournament?
Personally, I think I’d like to see a primary of all contenders regardless of party and a winnowing down to a digestible number, say 3. And then ranked-choice voting in the general election to decide the winner.
That the primary has a lot of people and that money buys name-recognition and name-recognition gets you far is a problem, though.
Fun to think about systems, though. Might start doing that to help transition away from political thinking. Though it seems the shock since Super Tuesday has abated.
logicalcat–
Your statement that “there’s just a lot less support for Bernie” is not reflected in the primaries. After Super Tuesday the delegate ratio is Biden 751 to Sanders 613. In 2016, those numbers were Clinton 1074 to Sanders 426.
If you were talking about online noise, then I agree there seems to be less pro-Sanders static than last time around, but it’s not a measure I have much confidence in.
@44 ksioindag
Though given the current length of the campaigning period, the primary period, the pre-primary jostling period, the mid-term campaigns – isn’t that a valid question right now?
@44 ksiondag
The problem with a cutoff number of candidates to proceed to the final ballot is that it probably provides an incentive to flood the primary with multiple candidates to crowd out the opposition. Then in the GE you get 3 clones to choose from. Of course then everybody floods the primary, at which point the procession to the GE is essentially random so you may as well not have done it at all.
I saw this and thought, isn’t that a stroke face?
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/4d2954b079c934c170565c1d000debf1cfe61336/0_73_1944_1166/master/1944.jpg?width=780&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=ae4218b0dcaca0658d5350d9f8da9750
Logicalcat @ 38
I was thinking similar things. Bernie bros in 2016 seemed like a splinter from gamergate. But now it seems like more of a narrative to discredit Sanders without actually needing to engage on policy ground where Sanders has the advantage. I would venture a guess that they mostly became Trumpists. Maybe an indication of this is that Sanders is doing comparatively poorly among rural whites compared to 2016.
Sanders lost again.
I realize I’m being all doom and gloom, here, but I think it’s done. The US has shown that it either wants to continue with status quo Capitalism, Oligarchy, being exploited by billionaires, licking boots, and being in ridiculous amounts of personal debt, or 4 more years of Trump.
I don’t think I can continue following this shit for my own personal sanity.
We’re fucked.
@49
Interesting observation. Most of the Berniebros I personally knew were indeed either gamergaters or at least anti-sjw gamers. Most of whom have blocked me on facebook. Not all of them went for trump tho, and I feel a lot of them just didn’t care about Bernie or politics in general unless social justice is involved so they stayed out. Fighting the establishment was just the excuse for shit behavior. I remember the many “Cuntary Clit-ton” used (or Killary Cliton after the Seth Rich conspiracy came about). And then they get mad when I called them sexist.
@49
They weren’t all Gamergaters, but there was a faction of those present in the Berniebros. I knew many berniebros in person during the primary and general election. Most of whom have already blocked me. They were all gamers sure but not sure you could call them gamergaters. they all definitely were anti-sjw to a certain extent. I think most of all they just didn’t care about Bernies message. He was just the excuse to behave like assholes. Most of them were more anti-Clinton than anything. Now shes not here, and they are gone. The ones who stayed are bothering Warren supporters.
@45.
Yea I was talking online noise. A lot less of that this time around. That study doesn’t surprise me, nor does it show that its a myth.
So right now Biden has slightly more than 800 delegates total and Sanders a little more than 600. Big deal, there are ca 3000 delegates total.
Sanders is not going to lie down and die just because it is convenient for the party bosses.
This is worrying:
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/joe-biden-weighing-multiple-billionaires-for-cabinet-positions/
“When people tell you what they are, believe them.”
So when I see nominal ‘progressives’ spout GOP talking points, including ones that were substantiated as such by the impeachment inquiry, I’m going to call them what they are: not-so-crypto-Republicans, Trump supporters.
rrhain@24
Sanders has at least two black women on his staff. Nina Turner is his co-chair:
Briahna Joy Gray is his press secretary:
Does that count for something?
I go back and forth on the Bernie Bro thing. On the one hand, having been on the internet for more than three decades now, I am fully aware that everyone fucking sucks. Toxic behavior is not unique to Bernie supporters. In fact, even in this primary, the most aggressive people got with me online was this month period when Kamala Harris jumped in the polls. For some reason, she had a group of SUPER antagonistic followers, which was surprising to me (and maybe total coincidence – I just happened to run into them).
On the other hand, there’s this shit:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/26/cops-called-bernie-backers-protest-117782
I do think there can be, among Bernie supporters, this combination of youth, self-rightiousness, and belief in the value of some sort of “direct action” that can result in really toxic behavior. There are a lot of goofy purity tests (medicare for all), there is the no-holds-barred use of bullshit right wing talking points – there are plenty examples of nonsense popping up on right wing accounts and then immediately getting pushed by high-profile Bernie supporters:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/politics/fact-check-trump-campaign-promote-edited-biden-video/index.html
So, I don’t know. I don’t think it’s unique to Bernie supporters, but there is something there. It may just be the fact that I support most of Bernie’s policy positions and ideology that I am more attuned to bad behavior on more or less my side, but it is frustrating.
Well, it’s true that the left has always been prone to factionalism and in-fighting (as has the right) but if anybody imagines that the ratfuckers on the right aren’t paying professional trolls to stoke this tendency to the max, I have a very nice bridge for sale.
The reason Democrats are fighting each other is because being a Democrat covers a wide range of people and the reason for that is that the Republican party has moved so much into the deranged land that any slightly sane person has no other choice but be a Democrat. You have Bill Maher, you have “never Trumpers”, you have “fiscally conservative” folks who believe in Democracy, enthusiasts of Capitalism, and you also have AOC, Rashida Tlaib, and PZ Myers. None of them want to fit in the Republican party of Trump so they have to come to the Democratic party. It would be a miracle if there was no “infighting” among the Democrats.
Oh, I think, deep inside, that most of us knew it would go this way. It’s like you’ve got the Monthly Family Brunch coming up and for a few days you kid yourself that you might get eveyone to go to that new Asian Fusion Resturant. But, you also know that Grandma, Aunt Betty, and Uncle Frank will all insist that y’all go to the same ol’ Diner. (And everyone orders the same thing they always get.)
@George, so true and far more succinctly stated than what I write, which mirrors your story.
I was a Warren supporter. Strong Warren supporters, especially among women, are decrying the establishment and the media for shutting out her campaign. The exact same thing is happening with the Sanders supporters after Super Tuesday and last night’s results, even before this thing is decided. In my view, Biden came out of nowhere. He has barely campaigned. The media were barely paying any attention to him until South Carolina. Now that he is winning, his financial support has ramped up exponentially, and the media have actively tried to ignore his flaws. This has happened at lightning speed.
This is not manufactured consent. Frankly, I think the DNC was quietly hoping that Buttigieg or Klobuchar could have pulled an Obama. It did not happen. These are voters voting. Some of it is herd behavior, but my Democratic and centrist Republican friends in suburban Philadelphia despise Sanders and are deeply opposed to M4A. The same was true for the vast majority of Democrats in Center City Philadelphia that I know, including among the working class and African Americans. None of them, including the suburban Republicans, will vote for Trump, but they also will not vote for Sanders. That sentiment carried over to Warren, because of M4A. Talking about the community potential of M4A and the actual lower costs is hopeless. My arguments never prevailed.
I realize my assessment is purely anecdotal, but I’ve been in this city for 28 years with a wide network of friends. I believe that the Democratic party is not in control of this, nor is the media. Everyone, everyone is annoyed and disgusted with the amount of oxygen the media gives to Trump and his self-absorbed tweeting and complete lack of leadership. He represents none of us. Voting for Biden is, for many, a safe haven, a known commodity. Given the fire sale leadership of the last three years, I get that. I don’t understand Biden, but, again, quoting, “given the choice between three old, white men, one of whom is a sociopathic nutcase, and the other is a socialist and just had a heart attack, we’ll take Biden. He can’t string two sentences together, but he never could. He’s likeable and harmless.” I will vote for Sanders, but he will lose Pennsylvania.
The Bernie Bro myth seems to be as empirically unjustified as creationism, as it turns out someone who bothered to actually analyze the tone of the online supporters across candidates has found that they’re all roughly as nice/not nice as each other. The only difference is that online, Sanders has way more support and garners more conversation than Warren, Biden, and even Trump. So, now that there’s data on the matter, I expect all these hyper rational centrist Dems around here will admit they were wrong and drop that as a critique of Sanders.
https://www.salon.com/2020/03/09/there-is-hard-data-that-shows-bernie-bros-are-a-myth/
logicalcat:
The Salon article said it was data “from 2015 to the present” right here:
If you’re going to criticize it, you should probably have paid closer attention. (Or maybe you didn’t bother to read it at all.)
It’s a myth that in general they’re especially “toxic” or more negative than the people who support other candidates. We are talking about millions of people, and nobody denies the mere existence of bad behavior in a population that large.
What you apparently didn’t get from the study is that there’s a larger (not smaller) group of Sanders supporters on twitter. It can both be the case that people do observe a larger number in absolute terms of negative tweets from Sanders supporters, while it’s also the case that the proportion of negative tweets is roughly the same as in tweets by people who support other candidates.
I don’t want to repeat myself, so please see my comment about this in another thread, particularly the bottom of it starting with the last quote.
You are simply making shit up. I was around then too, actually listening to other people excited about Bernie, so I probably know better than you do.
Also, the data goes back to 2015. Whatever it may suggest about Bernie’s supporters or anyone else, it is taking 2016 into account too. If there was more negativity last time, while on balance Sanders people are the same, then that implies they must be less negative this time. I don’t buy that, but this is what your claim would imply.
You mean like saying Bernie and/or his supporters are Russian agents/bots? Like all the lies about M4A? The lies about Berniebros?
Yeah, that’s all on supporters of the other candidates, not those who are supporting Bernie. We’re now dealing in anecdotes again, instead of what that study was showing, but this is just you moving the goalposts.
Biden, at a Columbus anti-gun violence event, speaking to women from Moms Demand Action, Everytown, etc. (starting around the 20 minute mark):
Ken White is shaking his head.
Biden really has a thing for shotguns. But okay…. spraying a mass of people with gunfire for “protection”? The crowd of anti-gun violence people he’s addressing are very quiet and just seem bored, but this is embarrassing.
Lots of people voted against Washington last night. They believe the political establishment had been sold to Big Money and laws were written by lobbyists. Trump claimed to be too rich to be bought. He lied.
But the perception hasn’t been addressed. Are these people going to decide that the Washington establishment has changed?
The Inner Party and its Donor-Owners aren’t really that worried by four more years of Trump. He will be good for rich people, and even if he isn’t great the Oligarchs wont’ be missing any meals. But a Progressive, even as modest a one as Sanders who is basically asking for a return to New Deal/Great Society ways of doing things, is a real threat. That’s why they have been so relentless in defunding, denigrating, and purging the Party of anyone who isn’t a Clinton/Biden/Emmanuel style Republican. This has been policy for a good twenty years. Remember all that “triangulating” and “no airspace on the Right” rhetoric?
Yeah. They’ve been running on “Be glad we let you vote for us, nasty little Poors. Things will get worse under us, but just a little more slowly than they do under official Republicans.”
And they expect us to be enthusiastic about it.
The US can’t allow for more parties.
Not without a massive overhaul of the big-C Constitution, that is; and any change to the Constitution takes 2/3 of each house of Congress plus a majority in each of 3/4 of the state legislatures. That’s why they’re still counting their amendments.
The two-party system isn’t mentioned anywhere in the Constitution. Parties aren’t mentioned anywhere* because the Founders didn’t want parties to form and were in total denial about them.
The trick here is the failure to separate the offices of head of state and head of government. This way, the elections that result in a new government (“administration”) are not the parliamentary (Congressional) ones, but elections for a single person. That kind of election has a really strong tendency to end up as a duel. Then each of the two candidates with a realistic chance accrues a party behind himself for support, and then the parties continue to exist through the election and put up the candidates for the next one. The two-party system is inevitable.
And so, the Democratic Party corresponds to the entirety of Germany’s governing coalition. The Republicans are to the right of all of that (Trump/Bannon/Miller have turned them into an analog of the Alternative to Germany, the Front National or the Lega, just with added Republican Jesus).
This is why the US is so painfully slow at getting nice things.
In stark contrast to the German constitution (dating from 1949), say, where parties are stated to be “important for the formation of the political will of the people” and given rights and duties.
OK, perhaps he would. But he’d still let the children out of the cages.
There is absolutely no question that, compared to Trump, Biden is the lesser evil. If Biden is still standing in November* and if you live in a swing state**, vote for him. Please.
Who knows? The senior moments he’s had are already being exaggerated (no, he did not confuse his wife and his sister sigh), but he’s going to have more. …And Sanders might have another heart attack.
** By November we might even know which states will be swing states. Turnout for Biden was stunningly high in Texas last week. If Texas swings, it’s all over.
Huh, single asterisks at the beginnings of paragraphs are getting deleted now. The paragraph that begins with “In stark contrast” is supposed to be a footnote, and so is the one with “Who knows?”.
@67
Why on earth do you believe that, the detaining of immigrant families and children occurred just as much, if not more, under Obama as it did under Trump?
From politifact
@CR
I did miss that fact about it covering 2016 when I read it, so I’m sorry.
This part right here:
You are simply making shit up. I was around then too, actually listening to other people excited about Bernie, so I probably know better than you do.
I never denied there were people genuinely excited about Bernie. I was his supporter too. Still am. I also saw way too much “Cuntary Clitton” for my liking. Also don’t get upset about my anecdotes while posing yours as superior.
You mean like saying Bernie and/or his supporters are Russian agents/bots? Like all the lies about M4A? The lies about Berniebros?
Tu quoque. Remind me again who spread the primary was rigged conspiracy? The Seth Rich was murdered by Clinton and the DNC conspiracy? Lee Camp of Russia Today and his ‘study’ that Clinton stole delegates? Clinton’s supporters didn’t do that to themselves did they? Just because Clinton supporters started calling others Russian agents (after the election FYI) doesn’t change the fact that a toxic brand of Bernie fans promoted this shit, and still do. And if that study didn’t take these into account and label them for what they are, as toxic fucking behavior, then the study fucked up.
Also since when have skeptics been accepting studies interpreted by the popular press? They often get shit wrong. Post the real study. If its in the original article I cant find it other than links to another article from the same publication. We used to criticize creationist for doing this shit.
Another thing is that the study claims to have analyzed twitter. yea so? Twitter is garbage no matter what. Even social justice advocates act like assholes over there. There is no surprise to me that everyone is equally shitty on there, its why i stay away from it. No my experience is on Facebook and in person. From the way i was treated as a Sanders supporter who tried to back Hillary amidst fighting back against all this toxicity. Call it anecdotes all you want, I don’t give a fuck. My experience was real, it happened.
@CR
I did miss that when I read the article so I’m sorry.
This however:
I was a Bernie supporter too(still am) who used to hang around other Bernie supporters. So I did listen to other people talk about Bernie. I never denied that there were people genuinely excited for Bernie Sanders. Thats a straw man. But I saw way to much sexist and fucked up language regarding Hillary Clinton. Including a well used misogynistic nickname that FTB doesn’t allow me to recreate in this post (the site ate my post and I had to rewrite all this). Also don’t chastise me for anecdotes while posing yours up as superior.
Tu quoque. Tell me, who spread the primary is rigged conspiracy? the Seth Rich was assassinated by Clinton conspiracy? The Lee Camp on Russia Today with his fake ass study which shows she stole delegates? Clinton’s supporters didn’t do that to themselves. It wasn’t the right wing since I saw it non stop among my Bernie Sanders friends and social media. If the study in that article did not label these as toxic, then they fucked up because that’s what they are. Just because Clintonites started calling others Russian agents doesn’t change the fact that a faction of Bernies fans are toxic conspiracy nutjobs. Hell it would skew the results of the study. If it indeed uses all the data from 2015 till today then of course it would show things are even. There are less berniebros nowadays since they’ve moved on when they vanquished the evil witch, and what remained are pissed off Clinton fans who started emulating their behavior (including NeverBernies) but this is a behavior from after the general not in total.
Also I don’t see a link to the study in that article. Since when are we skeptics relying on news articles when they routinely misinterpret shit? The only links in that article are to itself. We used to make fun of creationists for doing this shit. Sorry but I don’t buy that study. It presents a “both sides” while ignoring the distinction between two different primaries. Or at least that’s how it looks since I don’t have the real study. It also uses twitter for its data pool? I don’t use twitter for a reason. Its no surprise to me that everyone is an asshole on twitter in equal measure since that’s where nuance does to die. Even social justice platforms have a toxic section on that platform. My experience with berniebros are from Facebook, and most importantly, in person. I don’t care if they’re anecdotes. They are my experience, an they happened. And i didn’t see any of that shit on the Clinton side until very recently prior to this current primary. It made me not want to hang around with other progressives anymore. And I still feel that way. I also have never, never ever seen a Bernie supporter admit that their side used fucked up conspiracy theories other than myself. Own it. They are still talking about these till this day. Its toxic behavior that hurts the movement.