There’s all this talk about how horrible 2016 has been: celebrities dying all over the place, an evil orange dorkwad getting elected to the presidency, etc., etc., etc. But I hate to break it to you, but there’s nothing magical about arbitrary date boundaries — there is no wicked juju over this particular revolution about the sun. It’s just a combination of chance, the large number of boomer celebrities, and a bit of self-fulfilling prophecy — we’re now in the habit of announcing “oh god it’s 2016 again” at every minor bit of bad news.
What that means, unfortunately, is that the bad news will continue to roll out, even after the mystical boondoggle of 1 January 2017. Nothing will change. Different celebrities will die. The sneering orange sphincter will continue to make horrible political decisions. This is simply the new normal. Get used to it. There will be no transition to a less depressing state. There is no hope.
This morning as I’m getting ready for work…
Me (to father): “Castro’s dead.”
Dad: “Yeah, I know. I’m sure all you liberals will be in mourning. [Sarcastically]A champion for the poor and the little guy who made those rich bastards pay, right? Sure he killed millions of people, but he agreed with you so it’s OK, right?”
Me: “…”
>> there is no hope.
Live in hope. Die in despair.
Love you PZ.
2016 = 2x2x2x2x2x3x3x7
2017 is a prime number
There is nothing magic about 2017 either.
As far as i can see, there will be nothing but mostly bad news.
For another generation, my expected remaining lifespan.
1. Bush set us back a generation. We still haven’t recovered fully from the Great Recession.
2. Trump will set us back another generation. At least.
Bush wasn’t even trying. Trump is trying.
3. But what is so magic about a generation? If we keep elected idiots, going nowhere will become the norm.
It’s quite possible we will never recover. And end up being just another mediocre country with a lot of nukes and a lot of social problems.
Japan was the rising tiger of the late 20th century. Then they hit the wall and never recovered.
This situation looks familiar.
The two drivers of the Trump victory were:
1. The coming nonwhite majority demographic transition of 2043. Racism
2. Economic inequality rising for 46 years. We are getting poorer on average.
Trump isn’t going to fix either one.
To fix the demographic transition, he would have to genocide a few tens of millions of nonwhites.
He will make economic inequality worse, not better.
What he will do is what Reagan and Bush did.
Rev up the economy. The elites will make trillions of dollars. They will party like it is 2006. And get out before the economy hits the wall again and crashes. (And blame it all on Bill Clinton and Obama.)
The ride will be fun. The landing is going to be hard.
Hope and despair are a result of looking at our problems from the wrong scale. If we zoom back out, sure, the sun’s going to expand and eat the Earth. But if we zoom in, hey: I got out of bed safely today, and had a pretty good breakfast and a nice hot shower. Those things, themselves, are kind of miraculous – especially the hot shower. So, I don’t despair because I have a lot to live for, even if it’s just a hot shower tomorrow.
It’s just a combination of chance, the large number of boomer celebrities, and a bit of self-fulfilling prophecy
I was talking about this with my dad over thanksgiving dinner and he casually observed that when you get older, everyone you know, admire, or despise start to die. Your heroes, your best friends, politicians you hate – everyone. Unless you’re the one who dies. It’s just a side effect of aging and so while I acknowledge that it was terrible that David Bowie died instead of some other useless lump of meat, at least that useless lump of meat wasn’t me. Yet.
FWIW, my understanding of US politics is that Democrats are less inspired to vote for elections, especially when it comes to the midterms. And approximately 45% of people who could have voted in 2016, just didn’t bother. I’m aware that there are plenty of actions which have been taken to restrict areas with a large number of Democrat voters from voting (redistricting, new voting regulations which favor gun owners over college students, cutting of voting stations, etc.), and that the Drumpf administration is not going to fix it. But hopefully, starting in 2018, those who could have made a difference will feel more compelled to act.
For the life of me I can’t see how 2016 has been worse for celebrity deaths than 2015 was. Last year we lost Nelson Mandela, Sir Terry Pratchett, Sir Christopher Lee and Leonard Nimoy – I don’t think any combination of deaths can top that.
I’ve not heard that before. Is it something that’s just said by you folks south of the border? Or maybe I don’t get out enough? It doesn’t make any sense, so it’s probably the former.
#2 may be the story certain people have told themselves, but that’s not necessarily a good rendition of what was actually “driving” events. Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump
So let’s educate people. Make sure that we all have access to a decent college education.
I’ll emphasize that this is not about training people for fucking jobs … which includes your precious STEM jobs, in case that wasn’t already perfectly clear to everyone here. They are not your workhorses, slaves to a corporation/country, or a pump with which you can juice up the economy for yourselves or in the way you see fit. This should not be understood, like so many political proposals often are, as a get-rich-quick scheme for anybody or anything. They are people who have a moral and political right to a genuine education, to learn about the world and themselves in ways that may have no practical utility whatsoever, no matter what that may do to our stupid fucking economy.
Damn! I thought everything would be totally different because 2017 is an odd number that adds up to an even number (10) while this fucked up year is an even number that adds up to an odd number (9). Now you’ve gone and rained on my parade, PZ.
Cthulhu, Borked the blockquoting.
The two are correlated and somewhat causal.
Non college educated whites voted overwhelmingly for Trump by 39 points.
If you look where Hillary could have picked up electoral votes and didn’t, it’s the rust belt. Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania.
BTW, this is a huge demographic. It’s 1/3 of the voters.
It’s OK that the educated voted for Hillary. But there aren’t very many of them among the voters.
bad news is like ocean waves, they come and go ubiquitously. 2016 was the tsunami that makes many rethink that metaphor.
yet 2017 looks worse with the orange douche weasel stepping into power at the 20th day of the year.
*barf*
Sure, but Silver didn’t fail to address that point. Starting here, for example (or just read the whole thing, instead of explaining why you think you shouldn’t bother):
… followed by discussion of the county-level data showing “High-education, medium-income white counties shifted to Clinton” and “Highly educated majority-minority counties shifted toward Clinton” on the one hand, while “High-income, medium-education white counties shifted to Trump” and “Low-education majority-minority counties shifted toward Trump.”
So however they’re correlated with each other and whatever their causes in various circumstances, income doesn’t appear to be as predictive of Trump/Clinton voting as education is.
That’s a relative handful of voters in a highly specific area. Presumably the only reason you’re looking at that area is because of the mythology that it “decided” the election, in the sense that voting there was extremely close (not dramatically in favor of Trump), and the electoral college is a big clusterfuck which makes us look at such things. But anyway, that’s not a way of understanding voters all over the country.
Right, so I suggested we ensure more people can get college educations. We’re not stuck with our population being in its uneducated condition forever. We’re also not stuck with inequality being such a horrible blight on our society either, so of course we should work on that too.
“I feel much better now that I’ve given up hope” – Ashleigh Brilliant
Also the universe is meaningless. Isn’t that wonderful?
In theory.
And Trump just appointed Betsy DeVos head of education. The Darth Vader of public education with her own Death Star.
Well sure.
Economic inequality is a choice, not inevitable, as Stiglitz points out.
There have been many books written on how to reverse economic inequality. By Nobel prize winners like Krugman and Stiglitz. And everyone knows it should be done. Including Obama who has written lately exactly that.
But it isn’t happening. It isn’t even on the far horizon.
I’m sure Trump the billionaire who imports foreign labor is just going to make it worse.
One thing we do know is that reversing it will be a slow process, many years to decades.
So what you’re saying is that 2016 has ruined even the desire for 2016 to be over.
Liberals in America: “There is no hope.”
Liberals in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, Eastern Europe, South America, etc. etc. “Get over yourself! You have no idea how good you have it.”
It’s hard not to get depressed about the recent turn of events, but it always pays to keep a sense of perspective.
Hey, when you’re in a hole, the only light is by looking up! As a species we’ve been in lots deeper holes than this one. We just start climbing!
Ron Glass just died.
@22
well when you find yourself in a hole
the first thing to do is stop digging!
uncle frogy
Venus!
Book!
Do I cold-cock the three guys next to me who are still digging? That is our last election result.
oops
VenusHarris!unclefrogy @ 24
But then the shovel manufacturers will go bankrupt! Why do you hate our job creators?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pit-house
@26
well at least try and inform the poor benighted beggars that they are in fact digging not that easy of a task I admit.
as someone who has experience with holes of this nature I.E. those that are so easy to dig that you do not realize you are digging is that they are not very stable and are subject to cave ins and other dangerous failures particularly so when they are deep like over your head.
uncle frogy
TCM always has a good retrospective of the TV and movie industry people who have passed.
#26:
Can you please stop with the microsuggestions that Drumpf’s win was all down to men? Clinton failed to strengthen the women’s vote sufficiently, for whatever reason(s).
#32
get a grip
#33: Get a grip on what? My penis? That was covered in a recent post about Norwegian sex ed. I was attempting to make a [meta] point connecting Clinton, Millenials, offense (taken or given?), sexism, all ism’s, the reaction to Clinton’s failure, etc, etc.
miles links #34
(note that I use your nym when addressing you, kinda like people do)
it is usually a bad idea to comment whilst drunk
Let me make a suggestion x10^-6 for you, miles links: fuck off.
#35: your internet diagnosis is noted, and treated with every ounce of the respect it deserves.
#36: Nah. You fuck off.
chigau @33:
chigau @35:
Lol hypocrisy.
“Drunk” isn’t a diagnosis in this case, it’s merely demonstrating good faith in assuming you couldn’t possibly have come up with that torrent of bullshit while sober.
miles links
go get an irony meter
and
bless your heart
#40: see #38.
Pro tip: trying to moralize on the internet fewer than five posts after you have committed the same “crime” is dumb.
Ergo, you are dumb.
tacitus wrote:
“Dear Muslima”, yet again. Do you think Trump is going to be good for progressive movements in any country? America has a tendency to overthrow poor governments in those regions who elect someone the US doesn’t like. Trump hasn’t actually said he was going to be an isolationist despite sometimes implying it, and plenty of the things he’s said imply that his foreign policy would be just as aggressive as his predecessors (if not more aggressive).
How arrogant to think that U.S. politics is somehow unconnected to the rest of the world…
miles links #41
You are having a very hard time with this Internets thing.
maybe you should have a wee time out…
chigau @43:
That kind of phrase was amusing in 2008, but lacks punch nowadays. I refer you (and any lurkers) yet again to my post #38.
srsly?
My son was born. That makes it a good year.
@ 44 miles links
Seriously, what is your obsession with us lurkers ? Do you think we are silently nodding here and saying, “Oh, yes, that miles links says it like it is!” Newsflash: we don’t.
I saw #38 and I’m left asking… yes? What. What I’m supposed to gain from that? It’s just as full of shit as every other of your posts that I’ve seen.
Star Trek has a line for everything, including, this past election. The Star Trek line which best characterizes this election is something Captain Kirk said in the episode “Obsession”:
Can we just fucking not with the ranking of deaths?
robro @13: Sure, 2+0+1+7 = 10, which is even, but 1+0 = 1, which is odd. Now, 2000–2007 were a pretty little sequence, numerologically speaking (even/odd/even…) but the world, let’s face it, sucked pretty hard. I think I need a new pointy hat with stars and quarter-moons on it.
As I returned to work, I learned a co-worker had died of cancer Sunday. :(
— — —
Some moderately good news: Swedish marine archaeologists have discovered many well-preserved shipwrecks 2000 m down in the anoxic deep layers of the Black Sea, using a tehered robot outside the coast of Bulgaria.
Expect to eventually find hundreds of Greek and Roman ships in almost pristine shape (and the odd viking ship).
If a big asteroid hits Earth, that qualifies as the kind of news that will rise above the statistical white noise of random shit.
A big asteroid was just voted into office. The shock vawes will travel all over the world. 2016 was NOT a good year.
birger johansson,
In that analogy, 2016 is the year we discovered the asteroid and realized there is nothing we can do to stop it. 2017 is when it will hit with full impact.
Has 2016 been a shit, shit year? It sure has. The world seems to be sliding back into far right authoritarianism and hatred has been more emboldened than it has in a very long time. But, my goodness, PZ I have to say I cannot believe you would just go and announce there is no hope and wallow in misery like way too many on the left are doing now. Feeling sorry for ourselves and proclaiming we are doomed are exactly what the fascist fucksticks want us to be feeling, but no, we should be getting angry. This is not the time to give up and roll over for these assholes, we get mad and fight back. The PZ from a few days ago who wanted to be on the stupid Professor Watch list? That is the PZ I admire. I figured you would be the last one to suggest all is over. No, sorry, the American Left needs to be more passionate than ever and fight the Trump administration every step of the way. Him and his bigoted buddies may be in power, but they should be resisted at every turn. Crying there is no hope just makes it easier for them to take your rights. The next few years won’t be easy, far from it but everybody who did not vote fro the orange fucker should make his administration’s job as hard as possible.
In defense of PZ, *some* things seem to be just the same, year after year:
“LA Republican Caught Sexting with Underage Boy” http://www.patheos.com/blogs/dispatches/2016/11/28/la-republican-caught-sexting-with-underage-boy/
yah there has been a lot of good things passing that is not unusual happens all the time there is nothing permanent but change.
The thing that is to be faced is that conflict is some times unavoidable.
Much of the Left and Moderate Left by nature are repelled by conflict and avoid if possible. That is one of the reasons we got it this situation in the first place we want to all get along while the right-wing seems to revel in conflict and paint all even minor disagreements in stark terms of life and death.
We are doomed there is no way to avoid it paying nice is not an option if we want to survive and make progress in social justice, peace and environmental protection world wide. We are in this whether we like it or not. That is what I am reminded of by all those who are passing.
If not now when?
uncle frogy