[Oops. Forgot again. MAJeff posting this one]
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I have to admit, this is probably me being an American, but until a few days ago I wasn’t aware of all the tensions between Georgia and Russia. What I know now, though, is that people are dying.
So, for the folks in the know, or in the region, what’s going on? What do you see as root causes? What will be the effects of this conflict? Any good sites for further reading? Anything average citizens outside the region can do?
I’m a clueless American too, but I ran across this opinion piece this morning:
http://globalcomment.com/2008/russia-and-georgia-darkness-falls/
Have you seen the post on Greg Laden’s blog where he exposes the howler Google made ? The text covering the story seems to be pretty decent, but alongside the text they included a map of Georgia, as in Georgia, USA.
Wonder how many Americans freaked when they saw that one!
For decent coverage try the BBC World Service:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/
It can be pretty hard sometimes to tell how impartial the news you are getting is, but in coverage of past wars around the world, the World Service often gets letters from those involved on both sides thanking it for the depth and honesty of the coverage.
Falyne,
The article sort of points to something I was getting–rigidity in both places. It just seems to this outsider, more than anything, an intractable situation that’s only going to get worse, i.e., more death and suffering. It seems, looking at it, like one of those situations where everyone is a bad guy–esp. at the state level–and everyday folks get hurt.
Again, I could be wrong….
Read War Nerds background column on Ossetia for more historical info.
http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=7426&IBLOCK_ID=35&PAGE=1
The whole thing is very strange.
Georgia gained their independence shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union, but a large part of it’s territory is viewed as traditionally Russian, and there are large swathes of the population who are Russian. After the fall of the USSR, there was something of a split between those who wished to see closer ties to the west, and those who wanted to stick with Russia.
There was/is corruption, revolution, risky ties to both NATO and the Russians. The signs largely pointed towards Georgia gaining ever closer ties to NATO, with possible membership in it’s future. Meanwhile several factions in the nation started breakaway movements.
One of those was successfully put down, but a second (in South Ossetia) has been causing problems for some time. Both of these have received open support from the Russians, causing a serious tension between the countries.
A few days ago, the Georgians moved on South Ossetia. The Russians took this as the breaking of a peace treaty and decided that they were justified in violating Georgias sovergnty to defend their interests in South Ossetia.
Other than that, it is hard to say anything at the moment.
The jingoistic politicians- on all sides- start the wars, but always die in bed themselves. I only care about the innocent people who are being killed and maimed because their “betters” need to engage in these senselessly destructive penis-measuring contests.
This is another conflict that has some root in Russian imperialism. I know that Russia was irritated at Georgia because it wanted to join NATO, which would lose Moscow some power in the region, and I suspect control on oil might be an issue.
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Now Georgia doesn’t want the independance of South Ossetia, which would probably soon or later join the Russian federation. They’re at least very friendly with Russia (North Ossetia is already part of the Russian federation).
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A couple of days ago, the Georgian government tried to make a deal (I don’t remember the details) with South Ossetia, but the border bursted into fights anyway a couple of hours later. Later Georgians initiated an assault in South Ossetia, and the Russians came along with tanks, invoking the protection of Russian civilians in the region. Now a lot of South Ossetians run away in Russia (they all have a visa) and it is essentially a war between Russia and Georgia. Russian planes have been put down, as well as a lot of civilians. Georgia yesterday invoked martial law for 15 days, and is in war.
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That is what I know.
Georgia and Russia have been fighting over this region, with swords, guns and words, for over 100 years. It’s a mess and sorting the claims and competing counter-claims that go back, in some instances, to the Huns taking this region from Byzantine Empire is impossible.
It’ll end in blood-shed. Just like it always does.
Oh, and I’m (french) Canadien, so checkmate. :P
Also, I’d say this might possibly have some, er, interesting ramifications. Georgia’s got sympathy among NATO members, and there was talk of actually letting them into NATO, which opens up a whole bunch of old-school Cold War cans of worms. Combine this with the fact that the primary source of NATO force is currently greatly, greatly weakened* by its engagement elsewhere, thus limiting the hard response power and retaliatory threat of NATO to anything Russia does, and we could have issues.
*Conventionally speaking. If we go nuclear, we can still fuck Russia’s shit up. But for all that is good and rational, I reeeeeeeeally hope we don’t even THINK about doing that. The draft is also an option, if the shit hits the fan, but we probably don’t want to do that, either.
By Canadien I mean the hockey team…
“Russian imperialism”?!
You do know who started the whole thing. Russia overreacted, yep. But the Georgian aggression is simply baffling. I don’t get it. I would be careful only blaming Russia. Georgia acted very strange.
Why the United States cares about war in Georgia
Now Georgia doesn’t want the independance of South Ossetia, which would probably soon or later join the Russian federation. They’re at least very friendly with Russia (North Ossetia is already part of the Russian federation).
Meanwhile, while athiest housewives demand more taxes on themselves and everyone else to take care of the needy, American tax dollars get spent in enormous quantities simply cruising enormous ships around the gulf, threatening a small and abysmally armed country in order to provoke it into consuming US corporate weaponry through the rending of flesh.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/duarte/2006/0908.html
Millions may die, as the US ruling class ignores the pleas of these desperate housewives, and spends their taxes pointing guns at weird brown people.
“But we just wanted a library and some new chairs for our kindergarten,” said one soccer mom…
Little did Miss Suzy know that when she mailed off her check to the IRS, the money was used to buy eight minutes of fuel for one battleship and a box of donuts for the crew.
Conservatives will roll their eyes, but I partially blame some of this on Bush. The USA used to be able to use its diplomatic power to help resolve regional conflicts like this with other UN nations. President Bush scolding Russia for this attack I’m sure is falling on deaf ears since we are still embroiled in the awful Iraq occupation and still haven’t found a way to finish with Afgahnistan either (Didn’t Russia try that one as well?)… Pot? Kettle?
Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and these two countries will somehow work something out before this turns into another perpetual, awful, unnecessary war.
Humans suck sometimes. The most amazing species on this planet can sure also be the most amazingly stupid and cruel at the same time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_South_Ossetia
This is just a classic case of boundaries being drawn without respect to ethnic groups. South Ossetia has a large Russian population, and they feel they would be better off if they were governed from Moscow instead of Tblisi.
Historical trivia: Stalin was an ethnic Georgian.
Michael #12
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I didn’t blame only Russia, but it is true that they push in anyway possible to get back as many powers as they can in the region. I don’t know much about Georgia, but they probably had their faults. I just say that the behaviour of Russia isn’t surprising at all.
George Bush insisted on putting missile bases in the easternmost newest members of NATO.
To defend against what? Nudge-nudge, wink-wink.
Cheney and Putin are working together to restart the Cold War, which was hugely profitable for war profiteers.
Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis? The USA put missile bases in Turkey, so the USSR put missile bases in Cuba. JFK got lionized for staring the Khrushchev eye to eye without blinking, but the deal was the Soviets would pull theirs out of Cuba if the Yanks would pull theirs out of Turkey.
When goods and money cannot cross borders, soldiers will.
None of this really comes as a surprise considering what Russia argued during the recognition of Kosovo.
It is still shocking to think that the US wanted Georgia in the NATO. It now seems as though Saakaschwili has gone crazy or something. If Georgia were in the NATO now we would have big problems now.
It is very hard to believe that NATO would have reacted in a very different way if in 2004, after Kosovo became independent, Serbia would have killed some NATO peacekeeping troops. Guess what? Georgia did just that.
I recommend A Fistful of Euros as a good source for some background on this.
One story with some background, from someone who spent a while advising on oil & gas projects in the region: here. Nothing very revelatory, but helpful in establishing some context for the historic and recent motivations in South Ossetia and its various power-brokers.
1) If you talk to an Armenians in this country, they have historical problems with Georgia as well, including the Russian official who was from there.
2) Although this situation is different due to varying historical borders, how many people who back the right to self-determination change their mind when considering the American civil war?
Everyone has historical problems with Stalin.
Things are even more complicated when you realize that Chechnya is also in the same region (and shares a border with Georgia) and wants to do the exact opposite of South Ossetia (but of course, the Russians won’t allow self-determination when it means seceding from Russian Federation.
Sadly, this could well be the big brother of the Yugoslavia break-up, messier and more dangerous to the world at large. When populations feel insecure and opportunistic politicians stir up old resentments in their own plays for power it doesn’t bode well for a peaceful outcome.
In the long run, examples like Western Europe and even most of the old Yugoslavia (though it’s still early days yet) show that one can eventually overcome old animosities, but it never happens overnight, and I fear the Caucasus region may suffer more than the Balkans before it’s all sorted out.
j a higginbotham wrote:
“Although this situation is different due to varying historical borders, how many people who back the right to self-determination change their mind when considering the American civil war?”
Well, I would have backed the right to self-determination of the people of the American south in 1860… Black people, white people, men, women, native Americans…
This is a stupid assertion. I promise you, no one with four decades or more of political experience on them and an inkling of sanity in our government wants to restart the Cold War, no matter how profitable it may appear to anyone. An increased risk of total nuclear annihilation is not something another generation needs to lose countless nights of sleep over.
For those of you baffled by the hostilities between two such similar nations, there is a fairly simple answer.
After solidifying his power base in Russia, Putin has gone expansionist. And when you do this, you don’t start by taking over nations with dissimilar culture, society, or language. You start with the ones most similar to yourself, for easy digesting. The economic and political situation in Georgia is just icing on the cake.
Expect Putin to start using phrases like “securing its borders” and “enforcing the peace” or “promoting regional stability” alot more in the near future.
The problems go a bit deeper than a territorial dispute. Russia, taught by their history, perhaps, but not excused by it, don’t trust *anyone*. Their foreign and security policies tend to rely on what they can arrange themselves, not on any treaties or anybody’s good intentions. Also, they believe in having a buffer of friendly and controllable nations around their borders. In case someone would decide to invade Russia they would have to get through the buffer first. (This is a bit oversimplified but that’s what it boils down to.) That usually means coercing other parties into doing things or preempting any possible hostile act even if it is just a figment of a paranoid imagination. And, yes, Russians are quite convinced everybody is out to get them and that everybody hates them. To some extent this is true since they have worked hard for the better part of the last five hundred years on making themselves some bad PR among their neighbors.
Then, there is the matter of hurt pride. For as long as anyone alive in Russia can remember they were a superpower. Their voice counted and even if people didn’t like them they could decide over fates of whole countries. They had powerful military (or so they thought). They had a space program they were proud of. In this regard it didn’t really matter that some of them were starving or were dying from diseases that were almost forgotten in the whole industrialized world. The Motherland is holy! Now that most of the power seems to have evaporated they feel often very depressed. This is the reason why Putin’s Kremlin has been flexing it’s military muscles lately with for instance long range bomber flights over the Pacific. From military point of view these were pathetic shows but they looked good on TV so Putin’s ratings went up.
So back to the “don’t trust” part. A tried and tested method of control is the one called divide and conquer. For instance, you can support an obscure separatist movement in a neighboring country to a point where a military conflict flares up. Then you put yourself in between the warring sides and call it peacekeeping. It is perhaps indistinguishable from just having you troops occupying foreign territory but you can at least pretend you’re there to do good. Of course you’re meddling in another countries internal affairs and it is also humiliating to them. This way you can hold a whole nation hostage. If they don’t do as you tell them you can do some more “peacekeeping” under the pretext of them doing something naughty to the beleaguered minority. This is more or less what seems to be happening in Abhasia and in South Ossetia.
Now, Caucasus *is* a strategic region (for many reasons) and having control over it is seen as very important by, among others, Russia. Added to this is the desire of Georgia to forge closer ties with NATO eventually becoming a member of the said organization and generally to turn westward. This is rubbing salt into the wounds of the grief over the lost empire in Russia.
Georgians are not the kind of guys that shy away from a fight. Mikheil Saakashvili is not your ideal of a democratically minded politician either. This with all that has been said above results in the conflicts in Abhazia and South Ossetia.
Now, you might ask yourself: who is right here. Personally I believe the Georgians have the right on their side, simply because this is Georgian territory we are talking about after all. The problem is nobody around the world is going to care. Or at least nobody who could do anything meaningful since politicians don’t stand to gain any votes from any involvement in this conflict the Russians will probably have their way in the end, i.e. Georgia will not gain control over Abhazia and South Ossetia unless they themselves can wrestle it from Russia which is very unlikely. On the other hand if Georgia were to become an example of a flourishing democracy both Abhazians and South Ossetians would probably want to be part of this themselves and Russia would lose any mandate they might have thought they had to keep their troops on Georgian territory.
Kind regards,
/Adam
“Posted by: Splatador | August 10, 2008 4:49 PM”
“This is just a classic case of boundaries being drawn without respect to ethnic groups. South Ossetia has a large Russian population, and they feel they would be better off if they were governed from Moscow instead of Tblisi.”
– Actually, South Ossetian people are not ethnic Russians. And no, the two are not the same. Many, if not most, have been given Russian citizenship as part of Russian campaign to restore power in parts of the former Soviet empire, but that has happened only recently. That is the only reason that the Russian president can say that he is justified by his constitutional obligation defend “the lives and honor” of Russian citizens, no matter where in the world (which in the eyes of international law is bullshit – it does not give anyone right to invade an independent nation).
“Historical trivia: Stalin was an ethnic Georgian.”
Wrong. Actually, Stalin was an ethnic Ossetian.
Very nice to see that most people here seem to grok the complexity and moral murkiness on both sides. We are getting a lot of propaganda flung around, so stay skeptical.
Neither party is on the side of the angels here. Russia really has been (successfully) fomenting and supporting the separatist movements. Georgia has been getting more and more nativist and nationalistic in their suppression of those separatists.
IMO, Georgia is dancing to a tune played by Russia. I imagine Putin is very very good at chess.
Earlier this year Russia started replacing the peacekeeping troops in South Ossetia with veterans from Chechen campaigns, knowledgeable about warfare in the territory. Russia also intensified it’s citizenship campaign, to create an artificial ‘sudeten russian’ situation in the region.
Georgia sensed trouble, and made several, increasingly better, offers to South Ossetians (full autonomy inside Georgia, the works), all firmly rejected by SO’s administration.
From early August the separatists stepped up attacks on Georgian troops and on Georgian villages along the border. Georgian forces had trouble answering, because when countered, the separatists pulled back to Russian peacekeeper bases.
Following shelling of Georgian villages by separatist forces and fearing actions from Russia under the cover of Olymmpics, Georgian administration decided to go proactive and it’s forces entered South Ossetia.
Russia countered with moving in 58th army which just happened to have been waiting nearby into South Ossetia, launching bombing raids against military & civilian infrastructure in Georgia proper and initiating a blockade of Georgia’s Black Sea ports. Confirmed targets hit include Georgia’s main trading port on Black Sea and Thbilisi International Airport.
Meanwhile Georgia’s online infrastructure is under heavy assault by RBN’s (Russian Business Network) botnets, same ones that were employed against Estonia last year.
Now the conflict has extended to Abkhazia, another Russian-supported breakaway region, where separatists and, reportedly, 4000 freshly landed Russian troops have been hitting pro-Georgian villages and Georgian army positions.
Before you start feeling all teary-eyed for the dead civilians in Tsinkhvali, don’t forget that Russian official statistics only have two sections, ‘Russian soldiers’ and ‘civilians’, and try to find a single image of South Ossetia’s civilian president without a Mladic-ish uniform.
Yeah, so I’m biased. I come from another country that freshly remembers Soviet occupation, and I’ve been on assignment to Georgia preparing them for this exact eventuality. Everyone here knew that the current regime in Russia had to test the West sooner or later, and Georgia topped the list of potential victims.
#22
“It is very hard to believe that NATO would have reacted in a very different way if in 2004, after Kosovo became independent, Serbia would have killed some NATO peacekeeping troops. Guess what? Georgia did just that.”
-Russian peacekeepers weren’t in Ossetia under NATO authority in the first place. They were there as part of a treaty between Russian and Georgian authorities since pretty much the independence of Georgia. And right now, there are thousands, most likely much more than ten thousand Russian troops in Georgia, not only in the South-Ossetian conflict zone, that are acting outside of the peacekeeping mission, but guess what? Every dead soldier will be considered as a peacekeeper by the Russian side, and advertised as someone that was helping injured women and children, even though most, if not all, of them are actually waging war against Georgia.
I don’t understand this. Why are you blogging about this when there are much more important things going on like ZOMG SECRET JOHN EDWARDS LOVE BABY LOL
In the early 1990s a whole bunch of countries emerged from the wreckage of the Soviet Union. Some of these countries, like the Baltic States and Ukraine, are doing all right, making their way through the world. Some of them, mainly places with names ending in stan, are becoming nasty little hellholes. However, the 600 pound gorilla is Russia.
Back when Stalin and his successors were running the place, the USSR was a genuine world power. Actually, the USSR was a third world country fielding a large, sophisticated military. The Soviet armed forces had their faults but they were well led, motivated, well equipped, and reasonably well trained. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, the Russians held on to most of the military, particularly the most modern equipment. The Russian Army is still well equipped, especially in armor and artillery, and the leadership and training are still good. Russia is the prime military power in Eastern Europe. (Note: This is an extreme simplification. Anyone familiar with the history of the Russian military can poke holes in my summary.)
The Georgians also got part of the old Soviet Army. They didn’t get T-80 tanks and BMP-10 APCs, but T-72s and BMP-8s are still first line equipment. However, not being as rich as Russia, the Georgians let some things, like maintenance and training, slide. One of the reasons why Saakashvili wants Georgia to join NATO is for American, British and German personnel to teach training and maintenance to the Georgian Army. Right now, the Georgian Army consists of five active duty brigades and three reserve brigades. One infantry brigade is in Iraq.
The Russian North Caucasus Military District has three motor rifle divisions and at least five separate motor rifle brigades or regiments. One motor rifle division (the 42nd) is in Chechniya. The rest can be sent to South Ossetia.
The mess in South Ossetia is going to become much messier.
Adam, thanks for a good post.
As a small apology for my diatribe above, here’s a link to an article by Paul Goble, one of the more knowledgeable westerners when it comes to Russia:
http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/2008/08/window-on-eurasia-what-georgian-events.html
MAJeff, you asked what can an average citizen outside the region do? I would start by buying some Georgian wine next time you feel like having some wine, since not very long ago Russia banned all Georgian wines from its markets on some fabricated healthcare issues with the products. Since Russia was the single most largest (nearly 90%, I think) export target for Georgian wines, this step really hurt a large part of the Georgian economy, although Georgian wines had always been popular in Russia. It is not very relevant to the current situation, and selling wine is probably the last thing on Georgian peoples minds, but it is a start.
This was is simply the latest manifestation of the tensions between Russia and its allies and its interests and the US, and its respective allies and international interests. One cannot dispel the sense of Deja-vu which is created when one considered the precedent set by the independence of Kosovo, supported by the US and opposed by Russia, and now the war over the “autonomous” Georgia territory, whose independence is supported by Russia but, as chance would have it, opposed by the US.
Taking this a step further, this war is the result of the competition between the respective Bourgeois elite, those in Russia and its allies and those in the US and its allies. Their goal is control over the resource rich areas around Georgia and their interest in establishing footholds in the region. Just like the cause of the Afghan and Iraq war was money, power, dominance and control over resources, so is it the cause of this.
Totally off topic but have you seen this MESS in Toronto this morning???? Hope non of our Canadian folks have been hurt…
Craig Murray, who links this.
I don’t want to sound too “lefty” on this issue but part of the responsibility lies with the West in this affair. After the collapse of the USSR we ignored Russian sensibilities and were far too ready to try to pull former soviet satellite states toward NATO. Yes, right to self-determination is all right and good but, as has been said above, Russians are hugely insecure and lacking in trust when it comes to the rest of the world. The situation could have been better managed.
Everything was alright when the economic situation in Russia was dire, but now that oil and gas prices are booming, Russia feels it’s back on the scene as a superpower and that, while it was sleeping, the West has been trying to steal all its pillows and covers. They were bound to react. Imagine the US reaction if there was talk of Mexico joining the Warsaw Pact…
Scott from Oregon
Yeah, yeah, yeah. We don’t need no stinkin’ military. It’s all a waste of money. American is the greatest power in the world so there’s no need for us to protect ourselves. The military has never done anything for Americans and is hated by all right-thinking citizens.
BTW, there aren’t any battleships in the Navy. Iowa was decommissioned in 1990, Wisconsin and New Jersey were decommissioned in 1991, and Missouri was decommissioned in 1992. If you’re going to sneer, at least get your details right.
Stjuuv,
You can also support the Georgian rugby team, the Lelos!
They were impressive during the last World Cup! Well, they impressed me…
“Historical trivia: Stalin was an ethnic Georgian.”
Not only that, but he was born in Gori, the city featured in the story.
Lenin’s tomb has some interesting comment:
http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/08/putin-wins-probably.html
Here’s an article from the Economist http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11909324
South Ossetia is a small collection of villages and minor towns held under the thrall of smugglers, drug dealers, and general thugs propped up by the Russians that is only a government in that the Russians recognize it as one. Its not an ethnic conflict; Georgia broke away, and the Russians chose to give material support to a gang of criminals with vague tendencies towards Russian Nationalism to cause problems for the government in Tbilisi. What happened here specifically is sketchy. Sakashvili was elected partly on his vow to bring international crime under control in Georgia, and partly on a vow to reassert control over the break-away regions. Of course, to control crime in Georgia, you have to suppress South Ossetia, as it exists primarily to act as a haven/training camp for criminals from Georgia, and is a smuggling hub for drugs, slaves(sold to brothels throughout Europe and the Near East), guns, ect. ect. Government forces have been fighting low-level skirmishes with the SO rebels for weeks, but a few days ago they announced a ceasefire had been agreed. According to Georgia, the Russians or the SO rebels began shelling towns on the Georgian side soon after the ceasefire was announced. According to the Russians, the Georgians launched an unprovoked attack on the SO enclave ~4am Friday morning.
Now, for some analysis. Considering that the Russians deny any ceasefire was even offered, and that the SO has been firing at Georgian troops over the boarder for weeks ever since the Russians bombed a Georgian village a few months ago, I find it rather difficult to see how an attack by Georgian forces in this situation could be unprovoked, even if the SO and Russians didn’t actually shell any towns as the Georgians claim. More than this, I can’t imagine that a man as intelligent and capable as Sakashvili has proven himself to be would attack an enclave of armed thugs protected by Russian “peace-keepers”(there without a UN mandate, btw) while its biggest ally is tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, world attention is focused on the Olympics, and 2000 of his best-trained troops are in Iraq with our guys. Russia has also proven itself quite capable at information warfare (http://news.cnet.com/Cyberattack-in-Estonia-what-it-really-means/2008-7349_3-6186751.html) beyond its long history with propaganda, so I find it difficult to accept the Russian version of events thats being passed around the globe right now. Then there is, of course, the history(Check out the wiki page for a summary) To make a long story short, the Georgians have received the same treatment from Russia that all its neighbors have, namely, the bayonet and forced deportations. To absolve Russia of blame in this situation, regardless of who shot first, is to ignore its repeated provocations and abuses of a much smaller, much weaker nation, its long history of oppressive and expansionist behavior towards those not considered “True Slavs(i.e. Muscovites)”, treatment only slightly worse than that afforded its own citizens, the attitude expressed by the Russian government and street towards the breakaway republics, and its general bellicosity on the world stage since Putin came to power. Right now we can’t say for sure who shot the first gun, but Russia picked this fight, Georgia chose to stand now instead of being gobbled up later, and we are doing nothing but clucking and shaking our heads.
I wonder how many militia nuts went running for the hills when they heard the Russians were attacking Georgia.
“Yeah, yeah, yeah. We don’t need no stinkin’ military. It’s all a waste of money. American is the greatest power in the world so there’s no need for us to protect ourselves”.
Ummm, how is sending a (for fear of gettng the nomenclature wrong) bunch of ships with guns to antagonize a small Persian nation “protecting ourselves”?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1790191/posts
How was bombing the crap out of a bunch North Vietnamese peasants “protecting ourselves”?
How was attacking and occupying Iraq either in 91 or now “protecting ourselves”?
Sure we need a military. But while our military spent Trillions over time and over seas, box cutters took out buildings with people in them.
Needing a military is not the same as letting corporate interest dictate where that military should be used.
It should be used to “protect ourselves”.
If you think geo-manipulation is our perogative, make your case for it.
Actually, the Russian military was crap. It’s prowess and capabilities were a construct of the CIA and the Pentagon who used it to justify bigger budgets and new weapons.
After decades of fear-mongering by the West, Russia’s tank weaknesses came to light in their protracted war against the Chechens. The T-80 and the T-72 (and older tank) were routinely knocked out by second-rate anti-tank weapons fielded by the Chechen separatists. Now the Russians are making the T-90 which is just an upgraded T-72.
A NATO Leopard II or Abrams can punch its shell completely through the best Russian tanks, leaving an entrance and exit wound. OTOH, they struggle to get any meaningful penetration on the Leopard’s armor and would probably fail against the heavier Abrams.
I could go on about the crappy MIG-25’s, or the third-rate navy, the defective BMPs or the rest of the paper-tiger Russian military. In fact, really, I think they have good rocketry and decent artillery and that’s about it.
I think our two Iraq wars, where we took little damage in military actions from Russian made equipment is probably the best testimonial to just how crappy the Russian equipment really is.
OTOH, a crappy tank is still a tank. And if you don’t have effective anti-tank weapons, it’s going to kick your ass. And if you can’t control the skies, a crappy air force can still decimate your ground forces.
Third rate as the Russian military is, it’s probably still good enough to defeat Georgia’s.
I can’t really say much that hasn’t been said. But I would like to point out that Georgia has harboured Chechen terrorists for years. And they /are/ terrorists. Nobody who murders children at a school is a freedom fighter in my book.
Arnaud: You actually are somewhat off on this, beyond the implication that nations close to Russia shouldn’t have their own governments because it might frighten the insecure, macho totalitarian giant on their boarder. Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure is terrible, and their management of the fields wasteful. For the last year, fuel prices have been rising in Russia because the government would rather sell what they can get to the Europeans for higher prices, and many experts have begun to question just how long Russia’s oil/gas boom will last. Many argue it’s already trailing off. SO really, Russia is beginning to feel somewhat insecure about its economic future.
For this reason, they’ve been eying the Caspian. According to geologists, there’s a huge oil field under the Caspian Sea. Russia attempted to claim the entire thing back in the early 00’s, but they didn’t have the military, diplomatic, or economic clout to make it stick, and so they’ve had to share with the Central Asian republics, most of which are also big oil and gas producers. China eats up much of their output, but there happens to be another big market, reachable through already existing infrastructure, Europe.
This makes them Russia’s only competitor for the European oil and gas market. A single pipeline connects to Europe from the Central Asian countries pumping out of the Caspian, through Georgia, through Turkey, across the Mediterranean, and into Europe. A Russian/German consortium has been pouring loads of cash into building a larger, single pipeline (which the Russians will have the on/off switch for) direct from Russia to Germany (this explains Germany’s reaction to this conflict). Insecure about their supply, and never generally ones to play fair, the Russians don’t like that pipeline in Georgia much. How surprised should we be, then, that the pipeline, which is nowhere near South Ossetia or Tbilisi, was bombed this morning?
Anybody know anything about the story (from the dubious right-wing Israeli propaganda operation Debka.com) that “several hundred” Israeli corporate mercenaries were brought in last year by the Georgian government as “advisors and trainers” and found themselves in the front lines when things got hairy?
Also, Arnauld, What’s happening in Georgia is much more akin to the U.S. annexation of Hawaii or California, or the Spanish-American War than it is to Mexico joining the Warsaw Pact.
Ultimately, this conflict comes down to territorial integrity and whether a sovereign nation has the right to uphold it when separatists within the internationally recognized boundaries declare de-facto independence.
In Georgia’s case, the country that we know of as Georgia is actually a commonwealth of a number of republics. Recently, because of the geopolitical games to control the region, Georgia has been fighting an internal conflict between groups that want to remain allied with Russia, and others that prefer to ally with NATO and the West. During this conflict, both the United States and Russia have sent special forces to control the region. Georgia is vital to both Russian and NATO (read US) interests. At the moment, Georgia is being used as a corridor to transport oil from the Caspian Sea port of Baku in Azerbaijan, to the Turkish mediterranean port of Ceyhan for consumption in the West. Similarly, Georgia is vital to Russia’s strategic interests with Iran. Armenia, sharing the southern border of Georgia is pro-Russian (although there’s a heavy opposition that wishes to break those ties and move closer to NATO) and has a north-south fuel corridor with Iran. By gaining control over Georgia, Russia can link itself to Iran through rail, energy supply, and various other economic resources. Similarly, by limiting Russia’s role, NATO and the West can maintain a strong East-West corridor, thereby checking Russia’s regional influence. At its heart though, this region of the world has seen its fare share of conflict between superpowers. When the Roman and Persian empires fought to a stalemate, it was Armenia and Georgia that were frequently used as buffer states. When the Turks and Byzantine were at odds, it was again the same region that was critical for power and control.
The modern problem also stems from the borders of Georgia being drawn up by Stalinist policy. In essence, the Caucuses is a very culturally heterogenous region, with various ethno-linguistic groups vying for political independence. As many remember from the wars in Chechnya and to a lesser extent Daghestan in Russia, as well as these current conflicts with South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia, the region is highly volatile and prone to constant dissatisfaction. As an Armenian, I can attest to similar problems when the Armenian province of Nagorno-Karabagh in Azerbaijan tried to break away and assert their political independence. Ultimately, it lead to a still-ongoing conflict and although the region is under Armenian control, the political situation is highly charged. Any regional conflict like this in Georgia can easily escalate into a larger conflict with these other republics.
One thing that must be understood is that the media is going to be biased towards NATO and the West. The actual spark of this conflict was Georgia’s surprise attack on South Ossetia’s capital, thinking the world would be distracted, and the expectation of Russia’s excessive response. The thinking in Georgia was that with Russia’s severe aggression against its vital interests, the West would come down hard and it would cause a major diplomatic rift. The player in all this that goes unmentioned are the Americans who’ve sent special forces in Georgia. It would be cynical to assume that Georgia was coerced into a response thinking that they would capture South Ossetia (although internationally recognized as Georgian territory, many of its citizens hold Russian passports and are therefore like their brothers in North Ossetia, Russian citizens), but with the vital importance of regional control, this is sadly the typical international chess game, with the expense being paid by innocent civilians.
Dear Young Linguist,
I’d like to point out that Georgia’s ties to Chechens are about as tight as pre-invasion Iraq’s to Al Quaeda, and are being bandied around by Russian administration for exactly the same reasons the latter ones were by Bush one.
Julian,
My comment was not meant to cast a positive light on Russia’s behaviour, only to try to explain how it sees things from its side. If we have learned one thing in the past few years, I would hope it was that the “they are wrong, we are right, we don’t need to know more” approach doesn’t really work.
So yes, Russia’s management of its resources is probably terrible. The fact is that at the moment they have the funds to enable a partial rebirth of their military. Yes, it is an “insecure, macho totalitarian giant” and that is exactly why we should tread a bit softly there. The clue is in the word “giant”. Maybe (probably), as Moses says, the might of the Russian military has been exaggerated. I still would prefer not to go to war against them, especially if other options are available.
Oh, and Young Linguist? “Terrorist” stopped being the magic word a few years back. Try to keep up, will you?
This is an interesting blog post on the FT blog with many comments :
http://blogs.ft.com/rachmanblog/2008/08/war-in-georgia/
In neither war was Iraq using even vaguely up-to-date hardware.
Hezbullah demonstrated the RPG29 in Summer 2006. Israel claims to have the world’s best defended tank (the UK makes a similar claim), but lost several to RPG29s.
Scott in Oregon #51
You just don’t want to pay for one
Internal security is not a military function. The Posse Comitatus Act (18 USC 1385) effectively denies use of the military for law enforcement. Sorry, guess again.
As I told you before, if you don’t like how the civilian governmental leadership is using the military, then get new people into Washington.
Helioprogenus, (what a cool handle!)
The question of Russian citizens in Ossetia has been alluded to already. You may want to read what Stjuuv had to say about it. And that is without talking about the old USSR policy of russification which went on for decades.
It’s not just FT blogs one should check out. Here’s an opinion piece with pretty good analysis: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eaac265a-66fc-11dd-808f-0000779fd18c.html
Sorry about screwing up the blockquote function in #62.
Whenever you need some quick, up-to-date background on a relatively obscure country, the first place to check is the CIA World Fact Book.
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gg.html
Georgia not only has problems with South Ossetia and the Russians, but also with Abkhazia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
I haven’t time to read the whole thread, but I remember reading somewhere that Stalin deliberately drew the borders of the outer states across ethnic lines in order that they might be “unstable” and when these “states” were let loose from the Federation these awkward borderlines weren’t revised.
Another issue is that a number of these sorts of countries are formed from a collection of states or provinces, with strong local politics, which naturally affects the internal politics. I’m not familiar with Georgia, but someone could probably fill this in if it hasn’t already been done.
Arnaud, it’s obvious that Russians chose to provide citizenship and passports to Ossets knowing this conflict was oncoming. I did mention it only because regardless of how it had occurred, it’s part of the conflict. I also wasn’t letting Russia completely off the hook, but trying to provide a better framework for explaining the conflict in the region. I agree that Russification is a major factor, but as you can see from the conflict in Chechnya, it wasn’t exactly beneficial to Russia or completely effective. What Abkhazia, Ajaria, and South Ossetia, have in common is that although they’re provinces of Georgia, they see their future closely aligned with Russia instead of the West. Since they’re semi-independent and have de-facto control over their regions, they feel that they shouldn’t need to be subservient to Saakashvili and the West. His Rose revolution, though quite important for regional control of the West, is actually looked upon as disastrous by the opposing provinces. When you have such a culturally heterogenous region that’s also of great strategic importance, you’re going to have all sides attempting to exploit the region for their economic benefit. It comes down to simple economics and geo-political control.
I agree with Arnaud, it’s clear that closer ties between EU/U.S. and former soviet states like Georgia and the Ukraine as well as the recognition of Kosovo, have contributed to Russia’s moves to re-assert its sphere of influence in its backyard.
So what started as a relatively limited conflict over separatist territories became a larger challenge to Georgia’s independence and its right to choose a pro-western course.
It may be that in the end, Moscow’s real interest is to keep this conflict simmering in order to derail Georgia’s NATO bid and show that it is the only power that can provide stability.
I subscribe to this political blog which covers world political, environmental and “fantasy-world” that most of the USA’s elected leaders seem to be living within:
http://www.truthout.org/
The above URL, if accessed today, 2008 July 10, has as the feature article,
Taunting the Bear
by: James Traub, The New York Times
The hostilities between Russia and Georgia that erupted on Friday over the breakaway province of South Ossetia look, in retrospect, almost absurdly over-determined. For years, the Russians have claimed that Georgia’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been preparing to retake the disputed regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and have warned that they would use force to block such a bid. (read more–>)
Another article from this site, which is a resource of world issues, on the topic and it’s URL:
FOCUS | Russia Expands Bombing Blitz in Georgia
http://www.truthout.org/article/russia-expands-bombing-blitz-georgia
David Nowak reports for The Associated Press from Tbilisi, Georgia:
“Russia expanded its bombing blitz Sunday against neighboring U.S.-allied Georgia, targeting the country’s capital for the first time while Georgian troops pulled out of the breakaway province of South Ossetia, as Russia has demanded. Georgia’s Security Council chief Alexander Lomaia says that Georgian troops have relocated to new positions outside South Ossetia.”
Truthout.org is the best site to learn about what the reality of the world is, not the “fantasy” so many believe and sell to the willing consumers who watch the Faux Gnus Gnatwerk.
Greetings from Brandon, Manitoba CANADA
(although raised in my beloved Luverne, Minnesota), I did my BSc. in Physical Geography/Geology with a minor in Mathematics at Brandon University.
Waif
I have some inside information. I’m in constant contact with several friends in Tbilisi and I also read and speak Russian.
I wrote little about current situation here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2008/08/georgia_update.php#comments
My opinion – this time Russia is not the one to blame. Georgia started all this mess. Earlier this year Georgia tried several staged provocations. See here for an example: http://rutube.ru/login.html?redirect=/tracks/310256.html?v=d30b92012a50ac8870075014f1014582 (requires registration, sorry)
By the way. So far Russia has only targeted military sites.
The images on all news sites show “collateral damage” (hate this term) from ammo warehouse explosion in Gori (I just want to know what IDIOT decided to build warehouse near dwelling houses).
Georgia on the other hand happily shelled Tskhinvali (at night) killing sleeping civilians or forcing them to hide in basements where they later often got trapped or burned to death.
That happens all the time. One main reason is to try to prevent the enemy from shelling or bombing a military installation for fear of causing civilian casualties. This is especially true if foreign correspondents or tv crews might see the collateral damage.
I’m not saying that we are looking at two (or one) angles here, I’m just saying that Georgia is at this point the last one that can claim to be the angel. Saakaschwili must have lost touch with reality or something.
@#35
Georgia was waging war. Not the other way around. Georgia did something that reminded me of ethnical cleansing. Not the other way around. The attacks from Russia outside of SO are certainly not a nice thing, but that’s about it. (If Georgia were in the NATO now NATO might feel the need to support them. That was the problem I was referring to.)
Putin is the leader of a faction that wants the Russian empire back. Ossetia is his Sudetenland.
Poland should be very, very nervous.
-jcr
Update.
Several minutes ago there were some explosions in Tbilisi. It’s not clear what caused them.
Update.
It turns out Russian forces bombed anti-air defence radar stations in Tbilisi. They are not operable since Soviet times (it tells about the quality of military intelligence). No civilian causalities, luckily.
“I don’t have to make that case. I’ve been ignoring that part of your argument because that’s something the military has no control over”.
That’s not true. Military personel have the same right to vote as the next person. And usually a stronger incentive. When you join the military, you may do as your told, but you are free to think what you like.
Most people I used to know coming out of one of the big bases in Japan admit what a waste of money the bases themselves are.
The US military ranks 38th as a country in fuel consumption, paid for by soccer moms who think their taxes are helping poor people somewhere…
Meh.
It’s actually refreshing to have a conventional war between two border states. When’s the last time that’s happened?
I don’t understand exactly what’s going on, but it sounds a lot like the sort of thing I learned about in European History class. States fighting over territory. I can understand that.
There doesn’t seem to be any real ethnic conflict, no religious conflict. It’s just land and power people are fighting over.
Almost restores one’s faith in humanity.
Probably impossible to really know the truth here. Neither side really seems worth rooting for. Reminds me of the Serbian Croatian war. Both sides were massacring civilians of the other side which is where the term “ethnic cleansing” comes from.
My simple minded solution would be for them to just hold a plebicite, a vote to join Russia or Georgia. We are only talking 70,000 people here, a rather small city’s worth by US standards.
From some of the descriptions of South Ossetia as a haven for crime, sounds like they should be fighting over who gets stuck with it.
kw #26
Yes Stalin, but I meant more recently
Eduard Shevardnadze
Raven:
First of all, Ossetia held several referendums. They were all MASSIVELY in favor of independence.
Next, Russia and Ossetia so far do not attack civilians on purpose. Georgia does it. That makes it pretty clear for me who’s the ‘bad guy’.
Sam N #28
Yes, you would if transported back by time machine. However, if you had grown up in that culture …
Alex,
It’s easy to hold referendums supporting separation when all pro-Georgians have been forced from the area long ago. And – as I suspect – us both having grown up in USSR, we should know how to evaluate any voting going on when soldiers hold the ballot boxes.
As for Russians and Ossets not attacking civilians… That’s not worth a response, now is it? Pori ferry terminal was hardly a military target. Neither were the villages near Tshkinvali that separatists shelled from the safety of peacekeeper bases just a few days ago.
At the risk of sounding flippant, it sounds like the problem is a massive case of testosterone poisoning. Too much machismo on both sides for either side to back down without blood.
Men.
For anyone who cares. The Ossetians are Alans, a Sarmatian tribe. That explains a lot.
Yes, (most) Georgians were forced away from Ossetia (and Abkhazia) back in 1992 to stop bloodshed. And I don’t believe that these referendums were rigged. Ossetians do not want to live in Georgia, that has not changed since USSR.
As for villages near Tskhinvali that were shelled – these villages were used by Georgian snipers (which killed 7 people in Ossetia). So they were shelled as a response – that’s how you deal with snipers on enemy territory.
Alex,
Not just Georgians. I wrote pro-Georgian for a reason. There are more Abkhazians living in Georgia than in Russian-controlled areas, and about as many Ossets as there are in South Ossetia. Hell, my sources tell me there might be more Armenians in Abkhazia than is left there of the titular nation.
I take it that Thbilisi International Airport hit again just a few hours ago housed snipers as well?
A strange question springs to mind. If Georgia initiated the warfare, why did Abkhazians ask UN observers to leave for unspecified reasons days before poo popped the fan?
Great (but long) article in The Nation 3 months ago about how the coming wars will not be driven by ideology or balance-of-power politics, but rather for control over dwinding resources. Here’s a pertinant passage:
“Russia, too, is being viewed through the lens of global resource competition. Although Russia, unlike the United States and China, does not need to import oil and natural gas to satisfy its domestic requirements, it seeks to dominate the transportation of energy, especially to Europe. This has alarmed senior White House officials, who resent restoration of Russia’s great-power status and fear that its growing control over the distribution of oil and gas in Eurasia will undercut America’s influence in the region. In response to the Russian energy drive, the Bush Administration is undertaking countermoves. ‘I do intend to appoint…a special energy coordinator who could especially spend time on the Central Asian and Caspian region,’ Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice informed the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in February. ‘It is a really important part of diplomacy.’ A key job of the coordinator, she suggested, would be to encourage the establishment of oil and gas pipelines that bypass Russia, thereby diminishing its control over the regional flow of energy.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080519/klare
Oddly enough, I studies Soviet Nationalities in grad school about a lifetime ago. I have forgotten much of what I learned. But for a good guide to this and other hot spots, I can recommend a great book:
Bob Harris. Who Hates Whom : Well-armed Fanatics, Intractable Conflicts, and various things blowing up : a woefully incomplete guide. (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2007).
Russia has been at war in the Caucasus since about the mid-19th century. Like all empires, the Russians during the imperial, communist and post-communist periods rule(d) by keeping people divided : they make sure that there exist minorities within a given area and all different ethnic groups are not treated equally. In addition, the Communist party used to “place” Russians in different parts of the Soviet Union in order to have a Russian enclave and help to “Russify” the area. Voila! Ethnic tensions.
In addition, the Communist party used to “place” Russians in different parts of the Soviet Union in order to have a Russian enclave and help to “Russify” the area.
IIRC, there was also a long-standing policy of dispersing members of any ethnic group that the soviet authorities found troublesome. A lot of Chechens and Khazaks went into the gulags, and many more got sent to work in towns spread out from the western border to the Bering strait.
-jcr
Well, I would have backed the right to self-determination of the people of the American south in 1860… Black people, white people, men, women, native Americans…
We all would hope so. To tell the truth though, if you were raised in the USA in the mid 1800’s there’s no way to be sure that you would have been on the right side of the issues of the day. Slavery existed for thousands of years before the west became disgusted with it.
-jcr
Moses, #52
There were stories out of Gulf War I where U.S. tank crews would report learning they had been hit by Iraqi tank fire, but didn’t know it at the time.
Raven, #86
The International Alan Conspiracy has agents world wide. With such a disparate bunch it’s hard for us to agree on everything. Though we do agree that “Allen” is pretentious, and “Allan” is just plain ignorant.
While we are focusing on Russia and Georgia right now, let’s not forget Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. While the three do have disagreements with Georgia, a Russia occupation of that country has to be worrying them.
Let us remember too that Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan turned to the U.S. as an honest broker. One who has no vested interest in any one side in their disputes. We want stability in the region, because stability means healthy economies and better profits.
Now Armenia does have some reason to side with the Russians. But empires have a tendency to conquer their small allies once their enemies are gone. Take the Crow Indians for example, and what happened to them once the other Plains Tribes were dealt with.
Azerbaijan, caught as it is between Russia and Iran, has even more reason to worry. A potential major oil producer — once the mess the Soviets left gets cleaned up, and a potential road block between Russia providing support for Iran should war break out between them and the West.
Finally, Turkey can’t be eagerly anticipating Russia on their borders again. Not given the long history between the two.
What are those three countries doing right now? Are they accepting refugees? Providing supplies? Allowing volunteers to go fight for Georgia, or even sending “volunteers”?
Then you have the Georgian demi-brigade that’s returning to Georgia from Iraq. At last report we are providing transportation for them. What else are we providing? Arms, equipment, other support. Do we have assets embedded with the Georgians? And what are Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan doing to expedite the transit of those Georgian troops across their territory? Will the three intervene on Georgia’s behalf, and when?
Tropp:
“Not just Georgians. I wrote pro-Georgian for a reason. There are more Abkhazians living in Georgia than in Russian-controlled areas, and about as many Ossets as there are in South Ossetia. ”
What “Russian controlled areas”? Abkhazia is independent from Russia and Ossetia was not controlled by Russia until yesterday.
“Hell, my sources tell me there might be more Armenians in Abkhazia than is left there of the titular nation.”
Sounds improbable. In any case, Armenians ALSO do not like Georgia.
“I take it that Thbilisi International Airport hit again just a few hours ago housed snipers as well?”
Tbilisi international airport was not bombed. Check your facts.
“A strange question springs to mind. If Georgia initiated the warfare, why did Abkhazians ask UN observers to leave for unspecified reasons days before poo popped the fan?”
I don’t know. Maybe they wanted to do a preemptive strike without witnesses. However Abkhazia has not acted so far.
Alan Kellogg:
That’s assuming Russia occupies Georgia. I very much doubt it.
http://news.google.com/news?q=Tbilisi+international+airport&ie=UTF-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&hl=en&sa=X&oi=news_group&resnum=1&ct=title
Reuters says the airport was hit, other folks say it was just a really really close miss.
My friend in Tbilisi says that airport itself was not hit, though several windows were blown out by shock wave from explosion.
Re: #96
At this time, Abkhazia has acted. A large offensive in the Kodori Gorge area, along with a large landing of Russian troops in Abkhazia.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/10/georgia.russia/index.html#cnnSTCText
A professor in International Law once told a class I took at Cambridge “Gentlemen. Beware the Balkans. They have always produced more history than they can consume domestically”. So true. Is the region once more going to descend into chaos taking much of the Western world with it? We shall see, won’t we?
In the middle of this mess, here’s something that might bring a momentary (albeit wistful) smile:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/08/10/olympic.embrace/index.html
Stephen,
I’d be interested to see how your professor in Geography would’ve commented on this;)
I received tihis email from a friend who’s family lives in the area.
Hello everyone.
I’m writing you to let you know what’s been going on with my family and to ask you to please
keep them in your thoughts. I’m sorry in advance for the downer that this message is and you
will not be getting any more spam from me for a long while, honest.
War broke out in South Ossetia.
Half of my family there were evacuated right before the Georgian troops and tanks
came into the city, Tskhinvali. That was two days ago. They pretty much leveled the city
in half a day before the Russian troops were sent in to help drive them out. So far
over 2000 Ossetian civilians have been killed. The main water supply to the city was
blocked off by the Georgians a couple months back, so fires can’t be put out quickly
enough. They bombed the hospital, so people can’t get treatment. Most of the city is evacuated,
but those that have not been able to leave, including my three little cousins, grandma, and
aunt and uncle, are trying now to make it to the border with North Ossetia, but being bombed
on the way by Georgian planes. I hope they will make it safely across. There’s a line of people
waiting to cross over pass, many elderly people who stayed behind. It is terrifying. The first
night, Georgian bombing was pretty much non-stop. For a week before that, the snipers who
took over the hillsides surrounding the city shot anyone who walked into the street. It’s a
repeat of the war in 1990 only it may be even worse this time. Georgians are being told that
there is no fighting going on in Tskhinvali, that everything is going according to plan, as in 1990
when they attacked South Ossetia under the slogan ‘Georgia for the Georgians’. It’s full on
genocide against the Ossetian people, not just a war against their government. Who targets
hospitals and refugees?! Only the people of Georgia get no outside news, no Russian channels,
nothing that can make them see what their government is actually doing…hm remind you of anyone
Of course Britain and the US are blaming Russia for interfering, but they have
a peace agreement with Georgia that’s been in place for years, and if they didn’t interfere,
a whole nation would be wiped out. Frankly, they should have stepped in to prevent all that
damage when the attacks started, instead of waiting around to be politically correct in the eyes of
people with alternate motives for the region. Ossetian websites and blogs are being blocked, phone
lines are down, so we get to hear how this ‘breakaway’ region is attacking a country over five times
it’s size, that has military supplies from the US, by way of Israel, and troops trained by the US….I’m
going to believe the word of my family that’s been hiding in a tiny room with their neighbors for days
just to survive. I’m sorry to unload this all on you, I just feel that it’s important for people to hear the
other side of the story. I’ve sure gotten to hear some twisted reports of the news here. It’s amazing to
me how cold-hearted the UN is to still not take any action toward making Georgia keep it’s promise of peace.
And now I’m going to go and crash, my brain can’t take this anymore without some sleep. I hope that
I didn’t overwhelm you with all these depressing volumes and I apologize if I did.
Hope you are well. Please take care.
Best wishes,
Juicy, that’s a form letter. I received one just like it;)
Having already explained the conflict and described the framework for the escalation here, I feel it’s necessary to describe things from an Armenian perspective.
Armenians have a vested interest in Russia maintaining geopolitical control of the region, because they would benefit as a transit hub between the North-South corridor of Russia and Iran. Armenia and Iran have relatively cordial relations diplomatically, as Iran is providing natural gas through a pipeline to Armenia. Russia and Armenia also have cordial relations as the current Armenian administration along with at least half the country feels that Russia is the power that’s best to support their political independence. As crazy as it sounds, the majority opinion in Armenia is that siding with NATO and the West would lead to a greater reduction in influence and economic benefit than siding with Russia. As I mentioned, if Russia’s able to exploit Georgia, then Armenia would be a regional power player as a main transit corridor. Regardless, a country as small as Armenia knows that they’re going to be exploited (having been accustomed to regional powers vying for a vested control in the area), and the ultimate choice is the lesser of two evils.
In addition, Armenian support for Russia also stems from the fact that a largely Armenian province in South Georgia called Samtskhe-Javakhk, has seen its fair share of oppression from the Georgian government. As Georgia fears separatists from that region will declare independence in hope of joining Armenia, the government has clamped down extremely hard on the provincial population, which happens to be the poorest region there. The economy of the region revolved around a Russian base that’s now closed, further increasing unemployment and discontent. This, coupled with Armenian weariness of the West and NATO, and their reliance on Russia as both a stronger strategic partner, all colludes to Armenia’s lack of support for Georgia.
Further, Armenia is no stranger to battling territorial integrity, and they would be hypocritical to support Georgia’s integrity, when they themselves have seperatists in Nagorno-Karabakh vying for independence from Azerbaijan. As in all conflict, the situation is very complex, and the solutions for long-term stability are currently quite distant.
Hmm, yes, as a EU member one isn’t much informed (or seeking information) either, but it’s known that Georgia is interested in membership.
When this affair started, I compared Wikipedia with the local web newspaper, and was happily surprised by the quality of the latter. The newspaper also contributed two wild speculations that can be of interest – that the conflict was entered unwillingly by Georgia which has been provoked for a longer time by violence emanating from Ossetia (apart from the original provocation of Ossetia separatism), and that the locals (on both sides, so also ossetia nationalists) may still be hankering to join EU rather than Russia for economic reasons.
Here’s to a quick resolution, if still possible. Nationalism is a paradox in todays world, but that also implies that artificial barriers preventing it is rather meaningless. So, quite apart from not having any participation in the conflict, I would be satisfied with any peaceful outcome.
Great, war spam.
What’s next, going meta as ‘spam spam’ – “I have the most difficult time getting around spam blockers, pity me”?
Great, another slab of Slavophobia for my enjoyment in the coming weeks…
How quick are Western people to formulate fiery opinions on anyone outside their iron yoke. It’s simply amazing…
I despise nationalism (and religion, and any other form of fanaticism); however, sometimes it’s fun to be patriotic to piss off the intolerant and the ignorant (usually same category).
The Caucasian region has an incredibly complex convoluted history, spiced up further by oil and international interests. The ethnic groups have been spatially intermixed throughout the centuries, resulting in patches upon patches of various clans, tribes, nationalities, etc. Each has their own opinions, views, lifestyles, beliefs, interests, etc. Neither of them is morally superior to the other. In conditions of stability, they can coexist peacefully and cause little problems. However, add recent political and economic changes in the 90’s, add oil, add international intervention, and the ancient historical hatreds ignite into chaos.
(That is a real threat in almost any region of the world, by the way. I sometimes wonder if the impending recession would put an end to the EU and strain the relationships between European nations. The fuel is there. The hatreds exist. They’re just temporarily submerged in good times…)
And if there’s a patchwork of various interests and identities, there will also be individuals in each of those patches, and in the world beyond, trying to take advantage of the ‘osmotic potentials’ between them. They have chess pieces before them. So they touch them. And move them. And enjoy the game. The players are…you know…the quick people. Not any particular nation (or even government, for that matter), just quick people trying to meet their personal interests. As a matter of fact, we all are. But most of us have different interests and partake in different ways of reaching them. We use different chess pieces. Luckily, ours generally don’t involve human lives. Theirs do.
Those chess games also have momentum. The player has some strategy in mind; they’re not gonna ditch it and agree to a quick tie; they’re interested in the game!
In a way, can you really blame anyone? I mean, we’re all just trying to survive, and serve our memetic parasites, whatever they may be. Can’t blame a wolf for being a wolf. However, we can acknowledge that wolves are a possibility, and try to forge an environment, an ecosystem if you will, that would either drive them to extinction or modify their behaviour into something more docile for us.
You can try to reduce the strains between the factions by gradually eradicating dogmas, especially those in the form of highly virulent social parasites like nationalism and religion. It’s harder to force one to fight for you if they don’t see the point in dying for you. You can try to educate people on the other factions, to increase the ‘kinship’ circles to include others in the region. We no longer kill those from other villages in most parts of the world, due to our kinship circles being large enough to include nearby settlements of similar people.
This would eliminate some of the nourishment for the wolves of society. Suddenly, being a political predator becomes less appealing, and they could go on to other niches.
Those changes would be gradual. What I am suggesting here is that:
1. Memetics, the study of ideas as consisting of evolving replicator units (that most likely exist as certain neural structures or arrangements in the brain) should be adressed seriously; and
2. Evolutionary and ecological biology can provide much insight on human thought as well as political, social and economic phenomena. A study of memetics can lead to an educated, well-planned and neural solution to some of the sharper problems in the world — which are not diseases at this point in time, but rather…us humans. We are a much bigger threat to ourselves than cancer or HIV can ever dream to be. Humans are the most efficient human killing machines yet, if you accept that abject poverty and dirt is our work, a great accomplishment on behalf of our species.
The false dichotomy of right/wrong, moral/immoral, good/bad, whatever the hell you want to call it, is utterly useless and divisive. Things just are, lets deal with them as such without the unnecessary morality voodoo.
Oh, and by the way, Russia is not ‘poor’ and ‘underdeveloped’ — it sickens me how much the western media can lie about my country like that. Whenever I explain the other side of things (like, I was born there, my politically uninvolved (and thus quite unbiased) parents spent most of their lives there (and ENJOYED it, yeah), I’ve been back a few times… people actually have the insanity to claim I’m wrong and don’t know what I’m talking about, when they themselves can barely find the damn thing on a map. They say I was brainwashed. Yeah, 9 years in US, 8 years in Canada…3 years, my first 3 years, in USSR. I got ‘brainwashed’ by Russia HOW? I’m confused. Brainwash = resisting much of US and Canadian propoganda, in some people’s minds…
But I feel that falls on deaf ears/blind eyes…
And as for US being the ‘trustworthy’ partner for Georgia due to lack of interest in the region, bullshit. US has fuckloads of interest everywhere, especially anything at or near those sexey black ooze reserves underground. The sheer arrogance of Western people nauseates me — who the hell gave you the right to decide who’s ‘right’ and who’s ‘wrong’, who’s superior and inferior…who the hell died and made you the global moral authorities!?
All that said, I do naively hope this conflict would calm down as soon as possible to minimise the pain inflicted on those who have little to do with it. Naively, I know there could be a system, there is a local steady state, where we could more or less get along and not beat the shit out of each other. However, would our pride allow us to reach it?
Ah, poor humans…enslaved by ideas, pitted against each other, driven to madness by our new sleek evolutionary toy — the brain. Oh it’s got glitches, no wonder such ‘intelligence’ is so rare. And those glitches, sadly, cost our very lives.
Appologies for spontaneous essay…
Regards,
-Psi-
Anyone that blames this on Bush or religion needs to jump out the window and bail out. I am not a supporter of Bush and in fact I don’t like him, however this war has nothing to do with him.
The same liberals that said this are probably the same morons that said that the terrorists are getting back at us because we are a rich country (USA) and they are sucking dirt in how poor they are. Well, um the terrorists themselves have to have money to buy the weapons and come over here to train to fly a plane. That money from oil is killing us while liberals act like retards.
It’s apparent now that Russia is after a regime change. Only in this case it’s been driven by Eurasianist policies, and the administration they seek to overthrow is democratic in the word’s full western meaning, not a ‘managed’ or a ‘sovereign’ democracy. Georgian opposition has no fear of asylums, which is why they’ve declared their support for the president in this trying period, while the human rights activists still at large in Russia plead for international community to condemn their government’s actions.
Psi,
I’m a russophile when it comes to music and literature. I have plenty of friends in Russia, and habitually trawl Runet for news. But loving a people and a culture does _not_ automatically mean supporting the barbaric genitalia in power there and policies of such.
If Russia can’t cut off the oil pipeline from the Caspian, they could always cause one of their nuclear submarines to melt down in the waters off Istanbul.
[messed up link. I’ll try again]
If Russia can’t cut off the oil pipeline from the Caspian, they could always cause one of their nuclear submarines to melt down in the waters off Istanbul.
Psi,
Oh no ? Well that’s not what I noticed when I visited last September. Oh but you’re right, I forgot, Moscow is rapidly becoming the #1 luxury brands market ! But with an average GDP (PPP) at about $15,000 per year (less than Poland or Argentina), I wonder how they manage to buy so much luxury goods… Maybe it’s got to do with the way wealth is distributed in this country ?
I agree with you that we should be careful, especially as westeners, to criticize Russia, and that there’s a lot of anti-russian propaganda in the western mainstream media. But it’s not a reason either to draw a rosy picture of the situation which is a very complex one.
For me, in the end, it boils down to this : in Europe, institutions such as the EU and NATO are the best guarantor we have against future territorial disputes within this region (which has known many all throughout its history). But what about the region consisting of all the former USSR ? Is this a “region” first ? Do these independent countries have the right to choose whether they want to be part of EU/NATO or should Russia bring this stability de facto ? One thing is for sure, if this region of the world does not have the tools to guarantee its stability, which it doesn’t for now, we’re going to see this kind of conflicts repeat itself over and over again for a long time.
Only if you don’t try. If that was what was happening, sure. But it’s not. The Georgians came in and blew the crap out of the country in their ethnic cleansing of the Ossetians.
Which is not the first time the Georgians have tried this. They had won their freedom from Czarist Russia in 1917 and did the same damn thing, including starting wars with other countries, in the four years of independence they enjoyed.
The Russians, who were there as peacekeepers (2500 strong), were not a significant military presence. Really, just a thin line to keep the Georgians out of the country as North Ossetia and South Ossetia continued its attempts at becoming an independent nation.
All the Russians are doing now kicking the Georgians out and demanding the frothing-at-the-mouth Georgian President who started this war resign.
The reason that the whole thing is so cloudy is that our Neocon morons are still Red-Baiting and beating those drums of war. And that the Georgians had pre-loaded a sophisticated, international PR campaign into the works in conjunction with their aggressive invasion of South Ossetia which, by-and-large, wants NOTHING TO DO WITH GEORGIA.
Just an aside, but the most obviously “American” comment/s on here are the ones that refer to Russia as a single country. I know that it might be difficult to comprehend if you live in a country with such a strong “National” identity but little (aside from a few cases i.e. Texas) of what you might called State-ism. Russia and Georgia are two countries made of smaller countries, which in turn are made up of ever-smaller factions. The smaller the faction, the more strongly those who consider themselves a part of it will fight for it – a pattern common across Europe. Read up on the history of the Cossacks for more on that. But the bottom line is, South Ossetia’s claim to be part of “Russia” stems from the ties with North Ossetia, from which it is seperated by a 4km tunnel under a mountain. It may well be that North Ossetia would similarly desire seperation from Russia as South Ossetia does from Georgia, but one is a new country still making its own place in international politics, and the other is currently diverting a tiny fraction of its armed forces towards making a point (to North Ossetia as much as Georgia, as much as any other country which might consider breaking away from mother Russia now) no matter what the cost.
It’s also easy, in your case, to lie and bring up the specter of the old Soviet Union. The Ossetians have no love for the Georgians. They’ve suffered at their hands many times. As have the Armenians, Azarbaijani (spelling on that one) and the other ethnic groups/nation-states in the area.
Those were the people who made the vote. The Georgians, in that area, boycotted the polls.
Because the Georgians boycotted, the results were “thrown out” by the West. Even though, had they not boycotted, the Georgians would have lost in any case.
But, you know, red-baiting never goes out of style with some people.
Prester Tom:
Yes, Russia is a federation consisting of a lot of different parts.
I’m half-Udmurt (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Udmurt_people), I speak a bit of Udmurt language. However, I identify myself with all Russian people and I think that I’m Russian. I can’t imagine a situation where Udmurt Republic tries to break away from Russia.
The same situation holds in almost all other regions of Russian Federation. There are several exceptions – some Caucasian republics (like Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia and to lesser Tatarstan and Bashkortostan) have less close ties with other Russian people.
However, North Ossetia is not an example of breakaway region.
The united states is behind this conflict (how unexpected … not.)
Chess pieces are being moved around.
The old saying, “Truth is the first casualty of war.” It is obvious that all sides, Ossetians, Georgians, Russians, bystanders (NATO, US etc.) are putting out a ton of propaganda through the news media, internet, websites, viral Utube videos, the usual. They also know what they are doing, advertising technology seems to fly around the world as fast as anything.
And people with more than passing interest in it, filter the info through their own background and viewpoint.
So one has to try to sift the truth from a lot of dross.
FWIW, it seems to be ethnic and territorial more than anything. The Ossetians and Georgians don’t seem to like each other despite having been living side by side for a 1000 years or so. And they provoked the Georgians by trying to seccede but now the Georgians are trying to ethnically cleanse them.
The Russians are being Russians.
There is enough blame for all parties to get a piece. Probably some are more right than others.
These conflicts don’t come out of nowhere. AFAICT, the roots date back centuries to millenia and this is the latest chapter is some long running program of tribalism and politics.
We don’t quite have the intensity of it all here in NA. But the Sioux Indians decided to rise up once again 30 years ago echoing an older conflict that they barely survived, the Quebecois occasionally decide that splitting Canada in half would be fun, and Texas seems to be in its own world.
In responce to #71
“I have some inside information. I’m in constant contact with several friends in Tbilisi and I also read and speak Russian.”
The fact that you read and speak Russian and quote Russian press as your information sources doesn’t add much to this discussion. Virtually the entire press in Russia is under state control, and even though there is no pre-publishing censorship (I think), there are hardly any publications that can afford to print anything that disagrees with the “official version”, since all sorts of problems will most likely close the entire newspaper (or other source) shortly after the opposing viewpoints are published, or, if they are lucky, only the journalist and the editor are left without jobs.
From experience with the bronze-soldier situation in Estonia last April, I can tell you that the Russian media can and will present completely false information as truth, edit and manufacture evidence, such as video material and so on, in ways that most western people cannot even imagine. Because Russian media, mostly TV is readily accessible in Estonia, I followed their coverage from time to time, and pretty much everything they said and showed was completely false, when compared to what I saw on the streets myself, and what Estonian TV networks provided live or almost live from the streets.
#72:
“Georgia on the other hand happily shelled Tskhinvali (at night) killing sleeping civilians or forcing them to hide in basements where they later often got trapped or burned to death.”
Yes, I remember that Russia claimed that they have captured the city, and it is under their control, while Georgian troops shell civilians and infrastructure there. Too bad their claims were contrasted by their next statement after Georgia said they are moving out of South-Ossetia and abandoning Tskhinvali, because at that point Russians claimed that they are now moving into the city. So if the Russians actually weren’t in the city before that, then we are supposed to believe that Georgians bombed a city where their own troops were?
#75:
“Poland should be very, very nervous.”
I would think that Ukraine should be very very nervous instead, although they probably have much more military capability than Georgia, and that the Baltic states should be very very nervous and prepare to face outrageous demands from Russia in the near future, so that upon refusal, there would be another excuse for use of political or military force.
#82:
“Next, Russia and Ossetia so far do not attack civilians on purpose. Georgia does it. That makes it pretty clear for me who’s the ‘bad guy’.”
According to what source besides the Russian media and military? Because I would find it very strange for a nation to say that they are attacking civilians on purpose.
#99:
“My friend in Tbilisi says that airport itself was not hit, though several windows were blown out by shock wave from explosion.”
So there were snipers not at the airport, but a fewhundred meters from the runways instead? And also next to the presidential palace?
Stjuuv:
I know perfectly well that most media in Russia is state-controlled. That’s why I only skim “mainstream” news sites.
However, Russia has a longstanding tradition of political “blogs” with information from insiders (in 1992 during the failed putsch FIDONET was the only reliable information source in my city, for example). That’s what I’m reading.
Of course, I don’t claim that I have 100% disinformation-free news. That’s impossible in a war.
BTW, there are allegations that the shocking photos of dead Georgian civilians are in fact fakes: http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?p=3455679#post3455679
#122
“So if the Russians actually weren’t in the city before that, then we are supposed to believe that Georgians bombed a city where their own troops were?”
Look at the timeline of war – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War . Russian army took Tskhinvali 16 hours after it has been shelled. Later Georgian military mounted several more attacks, forcing Russians to retreat and counter-attack later.
#122
“So there were snipers not at the airport, but a fewhundred meters from the runways instead? And also next to the presidential palace?”
No. There was a _military_ airport near the international airport.
#109:
Psi, out of sheer curiosity, I’d like to know whether you’ve only visited Moskva and Piter, or can you comment on life outside a hundred miles from major cities? I have the impression that although major centers are modern and wealthy, people that aren’t so fortunate to be a part of that are pretty much destined to poverty.
According to my wife, who had to flee Georgia in the 90’s to escape the fighting, if Georgia is successful in thier attempts to regain Abkhazia and Ossetia only one thing will happen…genocide. What we’re looking at is a possible replay of Bosnia and the Christian/Muslim conflict.
The news from INSIDE Georgia, my father-in-law happens to be there visiting his mom, the Georgians first launched an attack against Russian peacekeepers. I love it when clueless people talk about “appropriate response”. Considering the Russians only had a small force in country, to keep muslims and christians apart, and the Georgian military consists of hundreds of T-72 MBT what do you think they should have done?
Having been an analyst in the past watching the FSU countries and having watched the conflicts in Georgia’s past, the US needs to stop courting Georgia just to get it into NATO.
#115:
“The Georgians came in and blew the crap out of the country in their ethnic cleansing of the Ossetians.”
Kind of silly of you to think that Georgian people and the president would be willing to throw their struggles towards EU and NATO down the toilet over a dislike of some people, and in the same time risk with a war with Russia. The last time I checked, it was Russia, that has been constructing this crisis for the last few years, and it was Russia that was interested in regaining influence in the region and stopping Georgia from joining the democratic institutions of the west. Funny how Georgians would voluntarily do just what Russia would like, and Russia would run in and try to stop them.
“The Russians, who were there as peacekeepers (2500 strong), were not a significant military presence. ”
2500 armed men in a region of 1500 square miles and 70000 citizens is hardly something you could call “insignificant”, don’t you find?
“Really, just a thin line to keep the Georgians out of the country as North Ossetia and South Ossetia continued its attempts at becoming an independent nation.”
North-Ossetia is part of the Russian Federation, and will not become independent as long as the current regime in Russia stands. Even if South-Ossetia would be given independence, their government would be a puppet, just like Chechnyas, and as soon as Putin snapped a finger, their people would voluntarily apply to join the Russian Federation. No matter what the outcome, there will never be something you could call an independent Ossetian nation, because nobody is interested in that.
By the way, my local news sources write that Russia has declined to even discuss the peace proposal by EU and OSCE, that was signed by the Georgian president earlier today.
In the same time, Russian troops have started to move out from the initial conflict zone into Georgian territory, despite their earlier claims that they will not take the battles out of South-Ossetia.
#128-the definition of clueless!
So, I take it you think your arm-chair geopolitical analysis is better than people who ACTUALLY live there? Who see the tension and hatred everyday?
Lets pick your esponse apart one piece at a time, shall we?
“2500 armed men in a region of 1500 square miles and 70000 citizens is hardly something you could call “insignificant”, don’t you find?”
Well, against a military with 26 THOUSAND men, and as I said hundreds of MBTs, APCs and towed artillery…well yeah, seem a little out gunned in that same little 1500 square miles. Don’t you think?
“Kind of silly of you to think that Georgian people and the president would be willing to throw their struggles towards EU and NATO down the toilet over a dislike of some people, and in the same time risk with a war with Russia”
Kinda silly to think someone would risk all out war, or at least continued sanctions of his people in order to continue building nuclear weapons. Hmmmm where could that be happening? Kinda shows you can’t really expect a leader to act in the countries best interest. Don’t you agree?
“The last time I checked, it was Russia, that has been constructing this crisis for the last few years,”
Source please. I again would put more faith in the information from unbiased eyes on the ground.
#77:
“It turns out Russian forces bombed anti-air defence radar stations in Tbilisi. They are not operable since Soviet times (it tells about the quality of military intelligence).”
Thats funny, I am watching news right now that contained a short interview with someone supposed to be the chief of the radar stations. Its either one of our sources is wrong, or the radar station that has been inoperable for nearly 20 years still has active personnel.
#128:
“So, I take it you think your arm-chair geopolitical analysis is better than people who ACTUALLY live there? Who see the tension and hatred everyday?”
Do you think that anyone that happens to live in the area can be qualified as a geopolitical expert? I am the first one to say that 90% of the general population where I live doesn’t have a clue about politics, geopolitics, international relations nor the economy. Yet they all still have a loud opinion about everything. At least my arm chair opinion is as informed as possible from this position.
“Well, against a military with 26 THOUSAND men, and as I said hundreds of MBTs, APCs and towed artillery…well yeah, seem a little out gunned in that same little 1500 square miles. Don’t you think?”
Well let me know when 2/3 of the entire Georgian active military personnel are continuously stationed in South-Ossetia.
“Source please. I again would put more faith in the information from unbiased eyes on the ground.”
I have been following the news for the last few years, that is my source. Russia has been struggling to rebuild their empire and ever since they got wealthy enough for it to be even remotely possible, and ever since Europe became too energy dependent on them to afford to take any action against it.
“Hmmmm where could that be happening? Kinda shows you can’t really expect a leader to act in the countries best interest. Don’t you agree?”
I can’t seem to remember a democratically elected leader doing anything remotely close to that, especially in a country that is not even presidential. Could you perhaps refresh my memory?
Well what do you say, one can’t even write a comment without things changing in Georgia. Russian troops have invaded the town of Gori, that is not inside South-Ossetia, and that is far outside the area the peacekeeping mission allows them to be. Also, near Abkhasia, but in Georgian territories, Russian troops are trying to take over a military base in the city of Senak.
> The International Alan Conspiracy has agents world wide.
Remember names like Armstrong and Nixon? Those are the names of the old reiver clans of the Anglo-Scottish border. Descendants of Sarmatians settled there to man the Roman wall.
What we need now is a Norwegian novelist that denies Russia’s, or Georgia’s, or Ossetia’s, or Abkhasia’s right to exist. Where are you, Jostein Gaarder?
#77:
“Kind of silly of you to think that Georgian people and the president would be willing to throw their struggles towards EU and NATO down the toilet over a dislike of some people, and in the same time risk with a war with Russia.”
Yes. Georgian president is mad – his best friend is George Bush. And USA also unconditionally support Georgia. So if Georgian invasion has succeeded then Saakashvilli would have gotten away with a nice little genocide.
“Thats funny, I am watching news right now that contained a short interview with someone supposed to be the chief of the radar stations. Its either one of our sources is wrong, or the radar station that has been inoperable for nearly 20 years still has active personnel.”
My friend lives about 3 km from the bombed radars. He SAW and heard explosions and the fire that followed (look at timestamps – I posted news about it less than 20 minutes after explosions). He says that these radar stations were abandoned since Soviet times or so. I believe him.
It’s quite possible that several radar stations were bombed. Or that someone tries to feed us a bit of disinformation (it’s a war, after all).
“Well what do you say, one can’t even write a comment without things changing in Georgia. Russian troops have invaded the town of Gori, that is not inside South-Ossetia, and that is far outside the area the peacekeeping mission allows them to be.”
Again, wrong. Several military targets were bombed, but there’s no invasion.
A while back, Russian interests and power were ignored by the Clinton Administration during a little air war between NATO and Serbia over Kosovo. More recently, NATO and, most importantly, the US backed Kosovo’s declaration of independence over Russia’s protests.
Now, Russia is backing separatist regions in a country that’s important to US strategy in the area–a US strategy that’s bent on reducing Russian power pretty much across the board. The only surprise here is that it’s taken the Russians so long to seriously push back.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3133242,00.html
“I can’t seem to remember a democratically elected leader doing anything remotely close to that, especially in a country that is not even presidential”
Hate to say it, but what does your memory have to do with it? What do the people think? I’ll tell you later after your response.
“I have been following the news for the last few years, that is my source”
Thats great, I talk to relatives that actually live in Georgia. What you say about Russia is true, but everyone including yourself is leaving out local Georgian politics. Things you dont hear on the news (especially US news).
#132 never said the Russians wouldn’t take advantage of the situation and they will be very heavy handed.
Actually, Scott, I think you’re conflating ‘the military’ with ‘people in the military’. ‘The military’ has no business picking their own targets, or trying to drive national policy. Sure, they can make their cases for one course of action or another, but control does (and *must* in a nominally free society) rest in civilian hands.
A base is part of an overall strategy; talking to the rank and file coming in and out of said base has no bearing on the usefulness of that base.
Bases came out of a strategy of advanced staging, giving the US the ability to respond much faster than if they kept all their gear inside the territorial US.
To my knowledge, *all* of these bases are designed to support US interests and allies in various parts of the world; we base in Japan for SEATO (iirc), ROK, JSDF, and a variety of allies in the region.
Sure, we can debate the reasons behind doing this, but that’s a different argument.
So? The soccer mom has the same rights as anyone else, and can support policies that include more humanitarian aid as opposed to military intervention.
Repeated use of the ‘soccer mom argument’ sounds like an emotional appeal rather than a reasoned one…I could be wrong, but that’s how it’s coming across to me. ‘Think of the children!’ and all that; sets my teeth on edge.
“Hate to say it, but what does your memory have to do with it? What do the people think? I’ll tell you later after your response.”
Let me rephrase, without bringing in my memory.
Bring me an example where a democratically elected president, in a country that is only semi-presidential, has “risked all out war, or at least continued sanctions of his people in order to continue building nuclear weapons”, or anything as destructive.
Opposition has pledged full support to Saakashvili. The country is united against the invader, more or less.
My sources confirm Russian forced having entered from Abkhazia. I bet my sources beat the 6 copies of FOX and 2 of MTV that goes for independent media in Russia;)
“My sources confirm Russian forced having entered from Abkhazia. I bet my sources beat the 6 copies of FOX and 2 of MTV that goes for independent media in Russia;)”
In any case Gori has not been invaded yet.
A wonderful analysis of Russian TV coverage of the conflict here:
http://www.robertamsterdam.com/2008/08/grigory_pasko_russias_surreal.htm
Includes this tiny bit of information about the South Ossetian ‘separatists’:
@121:
“The fact that you read and speak Russian and quote Russian press as your information sources doesn’t add much to this discussion.”
That’s just dumb and insulting. You’re throwing out the viewpoints of a PARTICIPANT in this incident because you claim that the media is inaccurate. Well, some news for you….American media has no less censorship and government control. The difference is that the American public has been brainwashed to trust their government to the end, and avoid real criticism. You can insult Bush all you want in that country, but go any deeper into the political foundations of the government and you’re ‘unamerican’, potential ending up with a nice vacation to a stolen piece of Cuba in the extreme cases.
Russians are an extremely skeptical people by nature (over a millenium of experience with strong governments), and live fairly independently of the government. You can see this in how law-abiding we are. So the government must resort more to force, or physical herding rather than brainwash. The American government harnesses the trust of its citizens and controls them from the inside. This requires less force, and works more efficiently. But both the governments are barely destinguishable in their goals and motives.
It’s more complex than that but this is the gist of the difference. This is why I cannot buy into the whole ‘Democracy is wonderful!!!eleventy1!!!’ bullshit. I’ve gone to elementary school in US, I’ve seen the brainwashing (looking back, that is. Although even then I sensed a dissonance between the home values (and language) and the school values. I got in lots of trouble due to my independence and refusal to worship authority. Now I work in research XP )
I digress. I was just stunned by how a likely reasonable person in other aspects could throw out an entire viewpoint of a participator! That’s what I cover under the term slavophobia. I’m sick of being treated as an inferior ethnicity whenever I present myself as a Russian in the West. My Czech, Polish, Serbian and Ukrainian friends complain of the same problem. It’s actually HARDER TO GET PUBLISHED if you have an obviously slavic name. Academic freedom my ass.
And to those who somehow conjured up the idea that I support the Russian government – please re-read my previous post. They are full of wolves, just like any other government. My ideal ruling system would be a specialised form of anarchy, but I do realise its unfeasibility. So I must adapt myself to whatever environment I find myself in, and do whatever I can to subtly cast memetic antiviruses into society =D (well, benign viruses, neutralising viruses, whatever)
And lastly, economic wealth is not the only wealth a country has. Wealth is much more than how much crap your average citizen has. At least most of the middle income nations (which Russia is; Americans are just excessive consumers of crap and thus look much richer) aren’t drowning in debt like some others. In most cultures, it is NOT ok to spend the last cent of your maxed out loan limit on luxury. Actually, in most cultures, debt is scary and bad. You live on what you earn. In America, the trend is, you live on what you can borrow.
That works for a couple of generations…but then… guys, if this credit crunch thing really happens, I feel really sorry for the whole nation to the south, I really do! (and Canada will go down too, unless the alliances are shift ed more towards China)
Again, I’m not pro-Russian government, or a Russian nationalist even. I hate nationalism. I pay respects to my country of birth (ancestors are important, but not worth dying for…) by still refusing to call myself Canadian or American despite having the citizenship of the former and almost a decade of life in the latter. I am not ashamed of my heritage and maintain the culture as much as possible, and for your typical Russian, that is a feat (we are a self-hating nation XP)
Oh, and the Mercedes-driving Gucci-wearing snobby sluts aren’t Russians…they’re just scum. We are ashamed to have spawned that shit, and we appologise XP
-Psi-
I think others have done a pretty good job explaining the details behind this conflict. Let me just stress the obvious point that this is a region of the world where nationalism is still a very visceral force. When you combine these strong feelings of ethnic grievance with the economic malaise of much of the post-Soviet region, together with the peculiar ethnic geography of these countries (republican and regional borders often cut across ethnic territories, which explains the existence of a North and South Ossetia, and multiple ethnic groups were often grouped together in the same territorial units), it’s natural that much of the region has been a powder keg of ethnic conflicts. Georgia is only the most vivid example of this. While I will think that the Georgian leadership and President Saakashvili are deserving of criticism in their handling of this affair, it is important to keep in mind that Georgia inherited a very complex ethno-territorial situation when it became independent in 1991. It inherited two regions, S. Ossetia and and Abkhazia, that wanted no part of the new Georgian state. Should it have granted them independence? Perhaps, but if you arge that, you must chastise Russia for not allowing Chechnya, Tatarstan and other regions within the Russian Federation to secede.
Where do you get your news, seriously? Russian tanks entered Gori two hours ago.
One last point RE media:
We had a minor little lockdown incident on campus (in Vancouver; some moron sent a threat of violence), and the media reporting of that was just abysmal. I truly experienced what media is, from the inside of the incident. They managed to lie and misreport about half the information. It was simply stunning. The exagerrated duration of the lockdown, the statement that there were ‘1000 students’ at the time (was lunch break, barely any lecture halls in that building; it’s a research building, but ‘students’ sounds more sensational than ‘research staff’), random other misreportings here and there; and a general tendency to sacrifice fact for a cool story (how often does anything happen in Canada, seriously?)
Ok, if they can’t report a minor lockdown incident properly, how the hell can you trust ANY of the media to report a war!? Especially one with strong vested interests? I mean, science reporting is just abysmal…and shouldn’t that be easier to report than politics?
They all lie. Even without government intervention they would lie. The media wants a cool story, at the expense of the victims as well as the facts.
Facts don’t sell very well; try selling a lab notebook!
-Psi-
Beautifully summarizes my single largest complaint with my (American) culture.
#139 Easy one:
Mikheil Saakashvili-Lets see, initiate hostilities against a force you can’t defeat. Start losing the battle badly. Cry to the West to help defend our poor country against the invaders. Kinda sounds like, oh I don’t know, setup! Russia was well within rights to respond. Lets see what happens next.
Any other easy questions?
Psi Wavefunction: you argue that Americans are largely “brainwashed” into following their government, while Russians, on the other hand, are skeptical by nature. As an American, I will not dispute the fact that many of my fellow citizens are blindly patriotic and insufficiently skeptical of their government. This was evidenced in the wake of the Iraqi invasion; I think there is little doubt that war brings out the worst in people. But let me remind you that right before the Iraqi invasion and ever since, there has been a great deal of public criticism of our government and president. There has been a great deal of criticism of Bush and the Iraqi war in the media, both television and print. I’m not going to say that our media is perfect; to the contrary, I think it is deeply flawed and often does a poor job covering important events. But your assertion that Americans are so much more brainwashed than Russians is absurd. Ever since this conflict in Georgia began, I’ve read dozens of message boards on blogs and news sites. Practically every single poster identifying his or herself as a Russian citizen has been unabashedly behind Russia’s actions, often accusing Georgians of genocide and labeling them US stooges; Georgia is clearly wrong, Russia is clearly right. Does this make Russians different than other nationalities? Of course not! Why don’t we just agree that blind patriotism, jingoism, and ethnic chauvinism reflect unsavory aspects of the human condition and affect all people equally.
#148 Whoosh.
What you don’t seem to understand, and didn’t read out from his question is that Georgia is a parliamentarian republic. Even for the declaration of state of war day before yesterday Saakashvili had to present the proposal for debating in the parliament.
And no, he can’t go over their heads. Georgians are very damn proud of their young democracy and wouldn’t tolerate anyone screwing around with it.
Your relatives aren’t very well informed.
To bring the discussion a tad closer to the main blog: there are reports (as of yet from not-100%-reliable sources) that Russian military command is employing uncharacteristically large proportion of muslim troops in the invasion. Georgians are orthodox christian.
#150- Whoosh!
Sorry you haven’t ACTUALLY read my posts. I’m saying what the people on the street feel. They hate the Muslims. They want to KILL the muslims. Given the chance they will do just that. It has HAPPENED before. The WANT IT AGAIN! To be so blind as to think the government doesn’t want the same thing is insane. The Georgian government feels they have a “get out of jail free” card because we want them in NATO so bad.
“To bring the discussion a tad closer to the main blog: there are reports (as of yet from not-100%-reliable sources) that Russian military command is employing uncharacteristically large proportion of muslim troops in the invasion. Georgians are orthodox christian.”
Wow, you getting to the truth at last. The Muslims know whats at stake. The Georgians have done it to them before. This isn’t some media crap, this comes from the streets of Georgia. This is a religious war, pure and simple. The US is being pulled into it by it’s desire to have a NATO country on Russia’s border.
Randy, what muslims? Georgians on the ground know full well that the whole separatism issue is being orchestrated by Russians, another orthodox christian nation.
Religion doesn’t enter the equation. It’s imperialism that’s the problem.
Your relatives had to escape Georgian fighting in 90s. Is it possible, just wildly guessing here, that they might be a tad partial in their ‘reporting’?
Ach, bugger me to hell.
Regnum.ru (that’s the ‘official’ state news rupor) is reporting that experts are worried about Baltic nations possibly moving against their russophone populations with military force in near future.
What. The. Intercourse.
The question right now has nothing to do with who’s right and who’s wrong, who started and who are the bad guys. Right now the central question is exceedingly simple: what exactly are the Russian troops doing inside the borders of an independent republic? What business have they got in Gori? No matter what the internal situation in Georgia is, that is completely irrelevant to the current matter. Russia is invading Georgia, and that must be stopped, immediately. After that there’s the time to sort out who was nasty to whom first.
“what muslims?”
Wow. The ones that live in South Ossetia nad Abkhazia maybe? The ones that escaped the Georgian genocide attempts in the 90’s. Perhaps you need to read up on Bosnia-Herzegovina as a replay of that event may unfold.
“Religion doesn’t enter the equation”
Wow, why am I talking to people that live there! You seem to have your finger on the pulse! Where are you, just curious?
Half the family went back to Russia in the 90’s, the ones I’m refering to are still there. So please explain that. Guess they don’t know whats happening in their own backyard.
“It’s imperialism that’s the problem”
Not the problem it’s an excuse that covers up the real problems.
#143:
“That’s just dumb and insulting. You’re throwing out the viewpoints of a PARTICIPANT in this incident because you claim that the media is inaccurate. Well, some news for you….American media has no less censorship and government control.”
I guess you have to be involved in an incident that Russian authorities are interested in spreading false information about, to know what I mean. You may be of Russian origin, but living in the free world for almost all of your life may have obscured your sight a bit, by making you assume some things are impossible.
And about the last part of this paragraph: Your sentence reminded me of an old joke – “Bush and Putin meet on a convention, and they start bragging about the civil rights and freedoms on their countries. Bush says to Putin that in America, every citizen can walk up to the White House and yell “BUSH IS AN IDIOT!”, and nothing will be done to them. Putin responds: So what, everyone can walk up in front of Kremlin in Russia as well, and call Bush an idiot, and nothing will be done to him either.
#146:
Yellow journalism may be completely idiotic where I live as well, but that isn’t outright lying, as far as I am concerned. Some idiots can bend the facts as much as possible to make people buy their paper, but as far as I’ve seen, actual news have been free of this behavior over here. Also see post #149 by Brandon.
#148:
“Mikheil Saakashvili-Lets see, initiate hostilities against a force you can’t defeat. Start losing the battle badly. Cry to the West to help defend our poor country against the invaders. Kinda sounds like, oh I don’t know, setup! Russia was well within rights to respond. Lets see what happens next.”
I didn’t ask about what you are claiming about Georgia, I asked about the parallels you claimed there were everywhere. What I am saying, there is no reason to believe Georgia would be dong anything so stupid, and that there are no equal cases from the past either, although you seem to be sure of it. try to answer my question, because at the moment, you only strengthened my point, because it is obvious to anyone, Georgians as well, that there will be no military support for them from the west. And the only reason because all this is happening at the moment, is that Russia knows it as well.
#152, #156.
Ossetians are not muslims, and they have never been.
Tropp #154: Mõtle veel selle peale, mis siis saab, kui Putin kuuleb, et Eestist saadetavate humanitaarabi andvate inimeste varustusse kuulub ka välivorm.
I read a report saying ome Baltic nations were supporting Georgia and that the Cossacks were on the way to Georgia to fight for the Russians. Ukraine stated that if any Russian naval ship fought in the conflict they wouldn’t let them back in port. They are homeported at Sevastopol, Ukraine.
“Actually, Scott, I think you’re conflating ‘the military’ with ‘people in the military’. ‘The military’ has no business picking their own targets, or trying to drive national policy. Sure, they can make their cases for one course of action or another, but control does (and *must* in a nominally free society) rest in civilian hands.”
Ummm, no conflation. I merely pointed out that military personal are also citizens, and have a vote in which to direct policy.
“””Bases came out of a strategy of advanced staging, giving the US the ability to respond much faster than if they kept all their gear inside the territorial US.
To my knowledge, *all* of these bases are designed to support US interests and allies in various parts of the world;”””
I love the expression “US interests” that is tossed around as a useful canard whenever the US military is brought up.
What US “interests”?
The US govenment has no interests outside of its borders.
US corporations, however, have financial interests all over the world.
How is it, that US taxpayers are asked to protect the assets of corporations? How did that happen? Where in the Constitution do you see that activity described? Granted, US citizens abroad are under the protection of the US government as are its citizens at home, but to suggest we need to spend huge chunks of taxpayer capital outside of our borders protectig individuals who by choice ventured out there…
It’s like the permanent “war on terror”.
Once you accept that notion, you accept that the Constitution no longer has any limiting control over what the military is asked to do.
When Ken Hovind, (or whatever that ID nutjobber’s name is) gets invited to “give a talk” at the Pentagon, it is time to reevaluate why we pay taxes to promote American militarism abroad in the first place. Why not give that money to your local homeless shelter?
@Scott from Oregon
What I get out of your comments in this thread are:
1) You have a sincere admiration for the US Constitution
2) You don’t think the US has any business getting involved in ‘foreign entanglements’
3) Imperial America is *not* an option
4) You’re anti-corporate
I think we agree more than we disagree in items 1 through 3, and disagree more than we agree in item 4.
Sure. Why not?
About the war in Georgia– an American interviewed within the conflict…
Josh K– And no, I am not anti-corporate, I just think American taxpayers should not pay to assume their risks for them. What we have now is coporations reap rewards while taxpayers assume the risks and pay to minimize the risks.
We just moved into assuming the risks of banking recently…
What’s next?
@Scott from Oregon
Can’t get youtube here.
Very well, I retract my ‘anti-corporate’ comment. I seriously agree that far, far too much is being asked of government in general (re: ‘economy stimulus’, et al). One can make the case that ‘recently’ in the case of banks reaches back nearly a hundred years.
You’re original post came off (to my ears) as anti-military (as in, a military is an inherently ‘evil’ entity). You don’t actually appear to hold that stance, so most of my objections evaporate.
There is something to be said for having friendly nations around the world, and to help those friendly nations when they need assistance.
I’m not entirely sure what to make of the Georgia/Russia conflict…flashbacks to the USSR pop into my head, but as other posters have pointed out, the issue seems to be a little more complicated than that.
I’d really, really, *really* not want to have another massacre occur ‘while the West watched’. We’ve got far too much of that on our collective conscience.
Randy, #158
Of course Baltics are supporting Georgians. We know what the aftermath of Russian army moving through looks like, so we’re busy assembling humanitarian aid and arranging it’s transport.
Was it this kind of support you meant? Or is it time for the legend of blonde sniper babes in silk stockings again?
As for Ukraine ‘taking sides’ – under a somewhat known set of rules and regulations agreed upon in Hague, a neutral third power has the right to close it’s ports for vessels participating in hostilities to avoid being dragged into someone else’s war.
As I’m standing at the free computers in the Columbia Engineering building waiting for my 5:30 class, Bush just came on CNN on the random TVs to give a statement.
Unfortunately (or maybe not) there’s no sound or subtitles to tell what he’s saying.
It’s probably a bad sign that my first reaction was “oh dear god no no shut up shut up don’t make it worse”. Maybe that’s just me, though.
Ok, he actually finished that rather short statement before my comment finished posting. Hopefully that’s not enough room to spark (more of) a disaster…
#158 No real mention of the kind of support. Probably more moral than military. I don’t believe the Ukraine would fall under the Hage regulations as its a joint Ukrainian/Russian naval base. Kinda hard to say you can’t return to your own base.
I have found Chris Floyd’s site Empire Burlesque has an excellent review of the various elements involved in this situation: http://www.chris-floyd.com/
In order from the beginning of the crisis:
http://www.chris-floyd.com/content/view/1578/135/
http://www.chris-floyd.com/content/view/1580/135/
http://www.chris-floyd.com/content/view/1581/135/
What’s the Russian for ‘Anschluss‘?
And what about ‘Manifest Destiny’?
And… ‘Mission Accomplished’?
“The Big Picture” at boston.com posted a set of photos today.
This $#!+ is so depressing. And McCain delivering that saber-rattling speech and looking/sounding like he was sleepwalking? Just plain scary. =8-O
Don’t be so hard on McCain. He is quite old and has been through a lot. It is possible that he is now dead and has come back as a zombie.
#157
First of all child DO NOT put words in my mouth to try and bolster a losing argument.
“I didn’t ask about what you are claiming about Georgia, I asked about the parallels you claimed there were everywhere”
I NEVER said “everywhere”, I gave an example of Iran. If you can’t argur the facts don’t argue.
“Ossetians are not muslims, and they have never been”
You get to learn a new word today: D-E-M-O-G-R-A-P-H-I-C-S
Again, never said Ossetia was completely Muslim, they are in fact a miniority. Abkhazia has about 11% Muslim.
I guess however the reports (you seem to hold the media higher than the actual people of the region) reporting how Georgian forces stormed into Ossetia burning houses and shooting children seems to have slipped by you. Very few news outlets, none that are shown in the US it seems, make comment on the barbaric invasion by that coward and thug Saakashvilli. The thing that started the shooting match, remember.
“The BM-21 ‘GRAD’ multiple rocket launch system was reportedly used by Georgia in it’s surprise night time attack against the residential neighborhoods of Tskhinvali. GRAD means ‘hail’ in Russian and involves hundreds of rockets fired simultaneously, capable of incinerating entire blocks of city within seconds.”
Read the news they make it seem the Russians murdered those civilians. Seems I may have been slightly incorrect, the Georgians seem to hate everyone.
One does not exclude the other. If you think comparisons to Soviet times are unfair, read “Putin’s Russia” by the late Anna Politkovskaya.