Today I ran across a video by Dr. Duc Vuong . He is a weight loss surgeon in the US. While he may not specialize in epidemology, he explains COVID-19 and the pandemic in simple enough terms for anyone to understand. His language is a little strong and some of his choice of analogies sometimes questionable, but the videos get the point across.
Vuong recorded the first video below in March 2020, explaining how COVID-19 attacks the body and eventually kills people. Also in the video he made predictions about rates of infection in the US, India and elsewhere over the summer. His numbers were not exact, but his prediction of trends was.
More below the fold.
Vuong has recorded several videos on the topic. The two below are from the past week.
The first (December 22) explains why COVID-19 numbers will continue to get worse for the foreseeable future, saying that things won’t start slowing until late spring and early summer. “This is the beginning of the dark winter,” as he notes at one point. He says to expect 300,000 new infections and 4000 dead per day into February and March, made possible by american insistence on travelling both for “thanksgiving” and “xmas”.
The second (December 25) explains what the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are and how they work. And why it will take months before people get them, and a year before they have a major effect on the pandemic.
I’d argue a weight loss surgeon isn’t a reputable doctor, whatever else he might be right about, but I don’t feel up to arguing.
I didn’t look at the videos, but from Rhiannon’s description, I’d say that one doesn’t need a heck of a lot of medical training to reach his conclusions. The predictions of infection and death rates are pretty much what we’ve been hearing for a while. They’re pretty much what I’ve been expecting, and I have no medical training at all. I think it’s almost certain that the USA will hit 500,000 deaths in the next few months, and probably will hit one million before things settle down.
I assume that his description of how the vaccines work is pretty much what we’ve been hearing from other reputable sources; again, it doesn’t require any specialized knowledge or training, just a willingness to read and digest what’s out there.
This isn’t “rocket science,” all it requires is a willingness to put aside wishful thinking and see what’s in front of one’s face.
@#1: He’s a bariatric surgeon. Why would that not be reputable? It’s a complicated field. Here’s an overview from the Mayo clinic about it: https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/bariatric-surgery/about/pac-20394258 These various procedures actually save lives, and they won’t give a license to any person who walks in the door. The dude still had to go to medical school. And pass.
These were interesting videos and I think he did make it clear how the whole thing works. I share his frustration. The only reason there are any beds available in our local hospital is because people keep dying. That’s not what the staff wants to see; they want to see people get better and go home and live their lives, not free up the bed by dying. The strain is really getting to them. All the health care workers I know are really on edge.
Great American Satan @1 — You might be surprised at just how complex digestion is. Bariatric surgery isn’t just “weight loss”, it’s physically altering the digestive tract.
Last I’d heard most surgeries to alter the digestive tract are essentially FDA-endorsed, physically enforced anorexia, reduce life expectancy, and carry non-zero odds of killing you within a few years of getting the procedure. But then, I’m not going to back that up because I don’t have the juice right now. Have at me on this if you like.
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It’s clear which side you stand on the issue (i.e. reality and science), that’s what matters.
I’m guessing that you’re untrusting until the source is verified. Nothing wrong with that.
As long as he stays roughly in line with the non-politicized CDC guidelines and both basic science and reason I have very few problems with his opinion. He is allowed to get details wrong. A specialty in bariatric surgery is not a problem for me.
If he slides into homeopathy or magic beans my opinion is likely to sour.