You may have already seen this, but there are the beginnings of what might be a vigorous but civil discussion over at NPR, on the subject of voting for an atheist candidate.
NPR gets some great commenters, but I happen to think mine are even better… so I’m pointing you that direction so you can cross-pollinate. After all, FtB discussions have pretty much already looked at everything in the NPR article many times over, so you are more than prepared.
Back to grading…
I just saw one of the Romney-affiliated PAC commercials. Four days after the election.
An abbreviated version of this one:
You know, the ad that was totally not coordinated with Romney’s claims that Jeeps were all going to be built in China?
I guess huge amounts of money don’t really care who actually wins the election. Keep telling the big lies, and no matter who is nominally in charge, control the conversation. The people have spoken, but there’s no reason to listen to them. They don’t have money.
If you can’t see the scope of your trouble
Then the silly mistakes more than double
So expect to be mocked
When your whole world is rocked
Cos you lived your campaign in a bubble
Hey, it happened to Dukakis, too. People (candidates, staffers, even embedded journalists) who get their information from within the protective bubble of the campaign, are subject to an echo chamber of information; if the accepted fiction is that their candidate is ahead (and that these particular issues are foremost in voters’ minds, and that undisclosed polls show a tsunami of support just beginning to unleash its effects….or fill in whatever narrative you like), the availability heuristic kicks in and we believe the message we can most easily bring to mind. And then, of course, confirmation bias kicks in, and we seek out the things that support our preconceived notions.
It’s really no wonder the numbers wonks were so roundly derided in the weeks prior to the election. Everything human about us works against them.
Fortunately, we have learned to accommodate for our humanity. The scaffolds, the external supports, of science, of critical thinking, of statistical methodologies and representative sampling, the combative interactions within the scientific community itself, all of these are tools we have stumbled upon that help us to overcome our evolved biases. We use them, frankly, not because we see their inherent superiority (a good many can’t tell you how we choose an alpha level, but do so competently on a regular basis; at a more abstract level, more people “believe in” evolution or relativity than understand them) but because they work.
In this election, paying attention to numbers… worked. And Obama did a much better job of paying attention to numbers than did Romney. The “ground game” in the final weeks was, for Romney, the tried and true method of the past. For Obama, it was the experimentally verified wave of the future. Use what has been shown to work; don’t use what has been shown to be ineffective. Take data on everything.
I am hopeful that this election changed some things it was not designed to change. Yes, we chose a president, and other officials, but I suspect this is the beginning of the end for the traditional campaign, and the beginning of a data-driven future. And, frankly, a data-driven future should show different issues come to the fore, issues no longer mandated by archaic religious systems or philosophical positions far removed from reality.
This would be good news indeed.
So yeah, PZ has a Christmas post up already? I know the malls already have spray snow, holly and mistletoe, and other signs of war Christmas; I’ve heard the music, seen the decorations, smelled the mulled cider… but PZ? This must mean it’s getting late.
I’m hopeful (but hey, the real world imposes itself sometimes) that I’ll have some cool cephalopodmas swag for you soon, but for now…
In mega-malls and coffee shops
In giant chains and mom-and-pops
The mistletoe and holly have been decked
The garland—silver, red, and green
Has been in place since Halloween
In store displays we’ve all come to expect
Employees dressed as helpful elves
Are stringing lights and stocking shelves
And spraying trees with artificial snow
And everywhere, the carols play
There’s no place you can get away
Cos Christmas is endangered, don’t you know?
I’m gearing up for this year’s war on Christmas
It’s gonna be a knock-down, drag-out fight!
I’m pissed off and I’m ranty, cos
It’s two full months of santy claus
And all I really want’s a silent night
We see displays in family yards
And messages in greeting cards
Which use an anti-Christian sort of phrase
Though everywhere across the earth
They’re celebrating Jesus’ birth
They use the PC “Happy Holidays”
I’ve seen examples by the scores
In catalogs and online stores
As well as at some places here in town
As everybody celebrates,
Their choice of phrases demonstrates
Their real agenda’s tearing Christmas down!
I’m gearing up for this year’s war on Christmas
It’s gonna be the worst you’ve ever seen
A little bad behavior’s worth
The selling of our savior’s birth
And doing so since not quite Halloween
We’re gathering with friends, to go
Despite the cold, despite the snow,
Sing carols for the old folks down the street
Surrounded by the happy greetings,
Hugs and kisses, merry meetings,
Smiles on all the faces that we meet.
We’re celebrating life and love
And not some savior from above
Our Christmas is a secular affair
Cos Christmas is for everyone—
Believe, or not, it’s still just fun
And if that thought offends you, I don’t care
I’m gearing up for this year’s war on Christmas
The birthday of our savior Jesus Christ
And what the hell, if this myth fails
There’s always after-Christmas sales
Where underwear and liquor are half priced
I really want to be able to actually sing this for you. It’s really pretty cool. Or not; I’m not a musician. Yes, it is an oldie. I’m grading. It’s this or the test pattern….
When the people are standing in line
But the leaders assert all is fine
As the populace votes
And the media notes
…The Cuttlefish drinks some more wine.
I have family in too many states to just sit back. I am hopeful, but damn. This is not easy. And I must say, if I had a time machine I would clearly tell myself to start this election day without any alcohol available. Lots of little signs look promising… which leads to wine. Occasionally, signs look bad… ditto. See? A lose-lose proposition, disguised as a win-win.
I can’t tell you how many typos I already fixed in this post. If it makes sense, this is a victory of obsession over inebriation. If it’s gibberish… you won’t be able to tell it from most other posts.
In other words, this is an open election thread. Say lots of stuff, and pity my headache tomorrow morning.
… so I’m making my own. You can, too.
You think it’s a toss-up?
You don’t want to vote?
You think there’s no difference
Or nothing of note?
You’re thinking of sitting it out?
You don’t see a difference
That merits attention
There’s no one to vote for,
Or even to mention
You’d rather just sit home and pout?
You think it’s decided?
Then go, and be vocal,
Make waves where they’re needed
And vote in the local
Elections, for city and state
The national picture
Is one part of many;
The local and state races
Show us that any-
One’s vote could determine our fate
You want to stay silent?
You think you’re not needed?
Your view won’t be counted?
Then they have succeeded,
Convincing you, give up the fight!
The truth is, you matter
In districts and states;
Your vote makes a difference
To so many fates;
So do it…, cos, frankly, it’s right.
[Read more…]
The process of crunching each district’s statistics
Makes some people happy, but some people sad
The numbers the polls are reporting, supporting
Obama’s election, make Romney’s team mad
The “quants” find the stats’ inferential potential
A powerful weapon—the greatest one yet—
They’d back its conclusions ‘gainst bunches of hunches,
And unlike the hunchers, they’re willing to bet.
When faced with the Five-Thirty-Eighters, the haters
Will trust in the wisdom of “somebody said”
The confidence placed in some minion’s opinions
Stems largely from favoring blue state or red.
Belief is perception—our bias can pry us
To left, right, or center, in so many ways
But numbers are numbers—they show it; we’ll know it,
And all of it done… in a couple of days
Just search for “Nate Silver’s Bet”, and you’ll find all the context you need. I’ll link to The Atlantic’s take, cos it stands out a bit–Nate Silver is willing to put his money where his mouth is, and maybe political punditry would be better served if more writers had to back up their lip service with cold hard cash.
I have had this going through my head for a day now. Wonderfully.
Oh, yeah, it’s part of a playlist, which I have listened to several times. And which I strongly recommend. Seriously, just clear your schedule and listen. My goodness, this is good.
All because I clicked on a twitter link from Peter Sagal.
Red State Jesus and Blue State Jesus
Were walking along, on the beach;
Discussing the issues, the fervent opinions,
And policies favored by each.
Blue State Jesus and Red State Jesus
Had two very different lists
But you won’t find their footsteps at all, in the sand
Because neither one fucking exists.
So CNN has a weird story/survey up, in which you can test whether you believe in Red State Jesus or Blue State Jesus.
If elections are about choices, so is faith. And in Christianity, liberals and conservatives choose to see Jesus in different ways. Some liberals see Jesus as a champion of the poor who would support raising taxes on the wealthy, while some conservatives think Jesus would be more concerned with opposing abortion and same-sex marriage.
and the survey?
Perhaps most Christians follow not one Jesus, but many — including a bit of a red state Jesus and a bit of a blue state Jesus. We consulted several pastors and religion professors to come up with this voter’s guide to Jesus. Answer these questions, click “Submit” and see where you fall on the red state-blue state Jesus scale:
So… how did I do? I didn’t believe in either–I could not, in good conscience, click on either option of any of the ten questions.