Wait, Isn’t The Election Over?

I just saw one of the Romney-affiliated PAC commercials. Four days after the election.

An abbreviated version of this one:

You know, the ad that was totally not coordinated with Romney’s claims that Jeeps were all going to be built in China?

I guess huge amounts of money don’t really care who actually wins the election. Keep telling the big lies, and no matter who is nominally in charge, control the conversation. The people have spoken, but there’s no reason to listen to them. They don’t have money.

Romney Really Expected To Win; Here’s The Good News

If you can’t see the scope of your trouble
Then the silly mistakes more than double
So expect to be mocked
When your whole world is rocked
Cos you lived your campaign in a bubble

Hey, it happened to Dukakis, too. People (candidates, staffers, even embedded journalists) who get their information from within the protective bubble of the campaign, are subject to an echo chamber of information; if the accepted fiction is that their candidate is ahead (and that these particular issues are foremost in voters’ minds, and that undisclosed polls show a tsunami of support just beginning to unleash its effects….or fill in whatever narrative you like), the availability heuristic kicks in and we believe the message we can most easily bring to mind. And then, of course, confirmation bias kicks in, and we seek out the things that support our preconceived notions.

It’s really no wonder the numbers wonks were so roundly derided in the weeks prior to the election. Everything human about us works against them.

Fortunately, we have learned to accommodate for our humanity. The scaffolds, the external supports, of science, of critical thinking, of statistical methodologies and representative sampling, the combative interactions within the scientific community itself, all of these are tools we have stumbled upon that help us to overcome our evolved biases. We use them, frankly, not because we see their inherent superiority (a good many can’t tell you how we choose an alpha level, but do so competently on a regular basis; at a more abstract level, more people “believe in” evolution or relativity than understand them) but because they work.

In this election, paying attention to numbers… worked. And Obama did a much better job of paying attention to numbers than did Romney. The “ground game” in the final weeks was, for Romney, the tried and true method of the past. For Obama, it was the experimentally verified wave of the future. Use what has been shown to work; don’t use what has been shown to be ineffective. Take data on everything.

I am hopeful that this election changed some things it was not designed to change. Yes, we chose a president, and other officials, but I suspect this is the beginning of the end for the traditional campaign, and the beginning of a data-driven future. And, frankly, a data-driven future should show different issues come to the fore, issues no longer mandated by archaic religious systems or philosophical positions far removed from reality.

This would be good news indeed.

There Are Dangers In Election Drinking Games

When the people are standing in line
But the leaders assert all is fine
As the populace votes
And the media notes
…The Cuttlefish drinks some more wine.

I have family in too many states to just sit back. I am hopeful, but damn. This is not easy. And I must say, if I had a time machine I would clearly tell myself to start this election day without any alcohol available. Lots of little signs look promising… which leads to wine. Occasionally, signs look bad… ditto. See? A lose-lose proposition, disguised as a win-win.

I can’t tell you how many typos I already fixed in this post. If it makes sense, this is a victory of obsession over inebriation. If it’s gibberish… you won’t be able to tell it from most other posts.

In other words, this is an open election thread. Say lots of stuff, and pity my headache tomorrow morning.

Vote. Just F’ing Vote.

You think it’s a toss-up?
You don’t want to vote?
You think there’s no difference
Or nothing of note?
You’re thinking of sitting it out?

You don’t see a difference
That merits attention
There’s no one to vote for,
Or even to mention
You’d rather just sit home and pout?

You think it’s decided?
Then go, and be vocal,
Make waves where they’re needed
And vote in the local
Elections, for city and state

The national picture
Is one part of many;
The local and state races
Show us that any-
One’s vote could determine our fate

You want to stay silent?
You think you’re not needed?
Your view won’t be counted?
Then they have succeeded,
Convincing you, give up the fight!

The truth is, you matter
In districts and states;
Your vote makes a difference
To so many fates;
So do it…, cos, frankly, it’s right.
[Read more…]

Moneyball, Politics, And Nate Silver’s Bet

The process of crunching each district’s statistics
Makes some people happy, but some people sad
The numbers the polls are reporting, supporting
Obama’s election, make Romney’s team mad
The “quants” find the stats’ inferential potential
A powerful weapon—the greatest one yet—
They’d back its conclusions ‘gainst bunches of hunches,
And unlike the hunchers, they’re willing to bet.

When faced with the Five-Thirty-Eighters, the haters
Will trust in the wisdom of “somebody said”
The confidence placed in some minion’s opinions
Stems largely from favoring blue state or red.
Belief is perception—our bias can pry us
To left, right, or center, in so many ways
But numbers are numbers—they show it; we’ll know it,
And all of it done… in a couple of days

Just search for “Nate Silver’s Bet”, and you’ll find all the context you need. I’ll link to The Atlantic’s take, cos it stands out a bit–Nate Silver is willing to put his money where his mouth is, and maybe political punditry would be better served if more writers had to back up their lip service with cold hard cash.

The Mitt Romney Mega Prayer!

The facts are clear; you must admit
The time has come to pray for Mitt

The time has come, if you believe,
To pray all day—election eve

And if it works—as well it may—
We cannot lose, if we just stay
At home, and pray and pray and pray
From dawn to dusk, election day.

You have to follow that link. Or here, here it is again. I am told it is for real. It looks like a parody, but I think a parody would have, as my verse does, asked people to stay home and pray on election day. I just love the graphic design–it reminds me of a simpler time, a time when everyone was straight, white, and Christian. A fictional time, in other words. A time that never existed except in the whitewashed memories of a privileged group.

But it’s just so shiny!

It’s Not A Costume!

It coming up on Halloween, there are people putting on false appearances and trying to scare you… and there are people who are just plain scary when they are being themselves.

From a nearby paper, a letter to the editor today:

To the editor: You folks probably won’t print this, being a leftist leaning newspaper, even tho you print other letter authors two-three times a month, but here goes:

For those who haven’t done their research on this man, consider these facts.

1. He wants to finish removing every reference to God from all public institutions and schools.

2. Wants to increase federal income taxes.

3. Wants to abolish the 2nd Amendment and limit the 1st.

4. Appoint Supreme Court justices who will, will not strictly adhere to the Constitution.

5. Is for abortion, including public funding

6. Is pro gay agenda.

7. Has added $6 trillion to national debts, more than last ten presidents combined (can’t blame that on George Bush).

8. Is a rabid, radical socialist. Surround himself with socialists and Maxists (Van Jones, George XXX, SEIU, SOS, and on.)

10. Does not want a strong militant

11. Is not for developing our own energy resources. Will not allow off shore drilling, has shut down 20% of our coal mines, wants to shut them all down (can you say. “higher electric bills?”).

12. Apologizes to everyone (including Muslim countries who have murdered us) for this country.

13. His foreign policies have lessened our image to our allies, encouraged our enemies.

I could go on for gages, but I dare the reader to view the movie, “The Agenda” and read the book. “The Naked communist”. Very enlightening and very scary. I believe the average American isn’t fully aware of what’s happening to this country and further if I may be so bold, don’t want to be bothered with facts, their minds are made up.

Please, be an informed voter.

[name and city redacted–DC]

This person will vote. That’s scary.

But hey, other recent letters include the additional “facts” that Obama was born in Kenya, is a Muslim Atheist, and continues to eat roast dog in the White House (hey, it’s comfort food).

I’d Like To Return This Gift, God…

It seems that perhaps abortion is going to be an issue again, maybe for a whole news cycle. Yet another Republican has spoken what he believes is the honest truth, and this is news because it clashes with the real world. Pregnancy, even due to rape, is a gift from God; as we know from earlier, it can only be a pregnancy if it wasn’t legitimate rape, anyway.

The Republican Party platform opposes abortion, and lists no exceptions (indeed, it applauds legislation that makes abortion more difficult to obtain). Not just the POTUS, but Congress and potential Supreme Court nominees are at stake, and all are relevant for this issue.

Anyway, it’s time to re-post this verse. It becomes relevant all too frequently. Oh… and, while I’ve never had a problem with people not recognizing it is satire, a recent comment came in that made me think that there are a handful of readers who don’t get it.

Jennifer, Jennifer, got herself pregnant,
The poor, irresponsible slut.
See, boys will be boys, so it’s up to the girls
To be moral, and keep their legs shut.
But Jennifer, Jennifer, couldn’t be bothered;
She led her young Billy astray.
They met, after classes, at Jennifer’s house,
And now there’s a kid on the way.

Jennifer, Jennifer, wants an abortion—
She says she’s too young for a baby—
But the law of the land says abortion is murder;
The answer is no, and not maybe.
See, murder is murder; we cannot condone
The destruction of innocent life.
And Billy, of course, is an innocent, too,
And he’s much, much too young for a wife.

So Jennifer, Jennifer, finds herself caught
In the view of a watchful Big Brother,
And Country and Church have a task on their hands—
How to keep the babe safe from its mother.
If murder is murder, for fetus or child,
Then surely assault is assault;
A fetus is damaged by drinking or smoking,
And all of it, Jennifer’s fault.

If Jennifer, Jennifer, falls down the stairs
Then the baby inside could be harmed;
And since that poor child is a ward of the state
It is right we should all be alarmed!
So Jennifer, Jennifer, needs to be safe
For the sake of the babe in her womb;
To keep the poor innocent safe from all harm,
Let’s keep Jennifer locked in her room.

But Jennifer, Jennifer, isn’t the first
Nor the last to be pregnant, you see.
The task that’s before us—protecting our children—
Is crucial, I think you’ll agree.
With the passing to law of my modest proposal,
I honestly think we’ll prevail.
It’s simple: Each woman who finds herself pregnant
Must spend the next nine months in jail.

Jennifer, Jennifer, shielded from harm
In a cell with a toilet and cot
With a closed-circuit camera, an unblinking eye,
For the safety of Jennifer’s tot.
When at last you deliver your new baby boy
We’ll whisk you right out through the door;
We care about kids while they’re inside your womb—
Once they’re out, we don’t care any more.

…

And Jennifer, Jennifer, can’t find her Billy—
Besides, he’s too young for a wife—
She weighs her alternatives, looks down each road…
And reluctantly takes her own life.

And the church says a prayer for the baby unborn
And a heartfelt and tearful farewell.
But Jennifer, Jennifer, so says the church,
Will be heading directly to hell.

Horses And Bayonets (The Ballad Of Romney’s Run)

For weeks and weeks, for months and months
We battled toward the right
Outflanking arch-conservatives
We had to win the fight
We dropped opponents one by one
Who couldn’t keep the pace
Now we’re miles from the center
But at least we won that race

And it’s saddle up your horses, lads,
And fix your bayonets
We’re looking for some voters
So we’ll lie without regrets
We’ll ride hell-bent for leather
And we’ll cut our way with steel
We’ll tell the voters what they want
And act as if it’s real

When Perry fell, and Bachmann fell,
And Gingrich, too, and Cain,
We passed them—on the right, of course,
Their losses were our gain
We said the things we had to say
To pander to our base
Now we’re hell and gone from “moderate”
But at least we won that race.

And it’s saddle up your horses, lads,
And fix your bayonets
We’re looking for some voters
So we’ll lie without regrets
We’ll ride hell-bent for leather
And we’ll cut our way with steel
We’ll tell the voters what they want
And act as if it’s real

When we met at the convention
We were serving up raw meat
With partisans surrounding us,
No need to be discreet;
We’d hide our views if needed,
But it never was the case—
No leftist thoughts contaminate
Our winning of the race

And it’s saddle up your horses, lads,
And fix your bayonets
We’re looking for some voters
So we’ll lie without regrets
We’ll ride hell-bent for leather
And we’ll cut our way with steel
We’ll tell the voters what they want
And act as if it’s real

Now we need to reach the center
And it’s quite a dreadful hike
Are there undecided voters?
Then let’s tell them what they like
Once we know the stuff they like to hear
We’ll say it to their face
Sure, it seems a bit dishonest
But we have to win this race

And it’s saddle up your horses, lads,
And fix your bayonets
We’re looking for some voters
So we’ll lie without regrets
We’ll ride hell-bent for leather
And we’ll cut our way with steel
We’ll tell the voters what they want
And act as if it’s real

Now we’re sprinting to the finish
It’s a battle; it’s a war
And we need to reach the people
Who weren’t listening before
So we boldly bear false witness—
It’s forgiven, by God’s grace—
If we told the truth, unvarnished,
Then we wouldn’t win the race!

And it’s saddle up your horses, lads,
And fix your bayonets
We’re looking for some voters
So we’ll lie without regrets
We’ll ride hell-bent for leather
And we’ll cut our way with steel
We’ll tell the voters what they want
And act as if it’s real