The latest polling in the Wisconsin recall could be a peek into the 2012 Presidential election:
(ChicTrib) — Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, said Sunday that Walker was leading 50 percent to 47 percent over Democratic challenger Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in its final survey. Angus Reid polling had Walker ahead 53 percent to 47 percent. Both findings were within the margin of error so the results could be even tighter.
The Frank Burns GOP look alike who has been busted, twice, with his head shoulders deep up a zillionaires ass licking for crumbs, sporting the worst job record and economy in the lower 48, despised by virtually everyone to the left of Hitler, on the heels of a massive public demonstration last year in a lean blue state. And he’s leading the polls. That’s why I think Romney will win. Call us stupid, unengaged, outspent, whatevs, bottom line, we as a nation keep electing crooks and weasels.
I agree. Bush shouldn’t have had a snowball’s chance in hell back in 2000, and certainly shouldn’t have enjoyed his relatively easy victory in 2004.
“A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it.” Kay, Men In Black
unbound:
That same quote came to my mind as I read that article.
I don’t live in Wisconsin and don’t pretend to understand it, but I can’t imagine what more Walker would have to do to convince more people to dump him. Does he literally have to burn Milwaukee to the ground?
Nahh–he’d just have to bad-mouth the Packers or wax effusively about the Bears or come out as gay. None of that is going to happen.
What isnt being mentioned is the not small number of people who arent necessarily thrilled with Walker, but nonetheless dont think he did anything worthy of a recall. Theres a very real sentiment in WI (on both sides of the fence) that this recall has been a huge waste of time and money.
“despised by virtually everyone to the left of Hitler”.
Well that is obviously false. Cognitive dissonance??
This is worrisome:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/ec_graph-2012.html
But it looked worrisome at this time last time as well. As always, we’ll have to ride this one out. If Romney steps on his … tail the way McCain did with speeches and VI pick, and Obama can get the Dimmycrats to stop being so wishy-washy (but he’s wishy-washy!) then we might have a chance.
I’m from Wisconsin and I’m fairly upset about the Walker situation. I voted for Barrett in 2010 and fully expected Walker would lose. I was quite disappointed. This time around I fully expect him to win, since he’s able to outspend Barrett by a wide margin. I’m still going to vote, though, since there’s always a chance for an upset. Even that article you linked said if democrats come out in large numbers Walker won’t survive the recall. In fact there’s another possibility too – that some of the less far right Republicans stay home. I don’t know how likely that is though, since it seems most Republicans worship the guy and won’t miss the chance to vote for him again. Sigh…
As for November, I haven’t even started worrying about that one yet. A lot could happen between now and then, like major gaffes or a scandal from either campaign that would alter the dynamic quite a bit. And don’t forget that Obama is an absolutely stellar debater. I almost felt bad for McCain with the way Obama talked circles around him in 08. I can’t imagine Romney being much better, with his habit of rambling on for several minutes without actually saying anything. But a lot can happen between now and then…
Why in god’s name is Obama not in Wisconsin campaigning against the bastard?
Simply put — it’ll be the state of the economy in the 2 months prior to election day.
Improving economy = Obama re-election
Deteriorating/stagnant economy = Romney.
Despite the fact that any policies Romney would put into place with regard to the economy will be like dousing a single wooden match with a fire hose. (Except for the 0.1% — they’ll continue to do fine.)
Frankly, the US electorate has proven itself over and over again to be not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Why should this cycle be any different?
I was hoping the occupy movement might make this cycle different – they seemed to be making arguments that even some dummies could understand.
Walker has beat up public unions. Folks who have lost jobs or aren’t getting benefits like the public employees can get behind a thing like that, cause, cause, well cause they deserve better too. Logic fail in there? Yep.
Here in the ewe arse of ehh we vote our prejudices first, our ideologies second, our pet issues third and our perceived self interest last. Thoughtful deliberation of policy and equitable governance are never issues in the collective mind of the electorate.
Simple: he’s as much in the pocket of the 1% as Romney, and they want Walker to win, and the crushing of unions to proceed unhindered.
Indeed: in effect, elections in the USA can now be bought. Ed Brayton has a thread on this.
I remember hearing something on NPR about Nikki Haley supporting Walker and calling him courageous for taking on the public sector unions. No, it’s not courageous, it’s a chickenshit move to say “up yours, you don’t get to negotiate.” It takes class to actually sit down and figure out a workable plan. Perhaps I’m biased, however, being a public worker myself.
Oh please, the “occupy” movement is broadly seen as a bunch of hippies camping out. Virtually every news report after the first week or so was about the legality of the camping — not about any ideas coming from the “occupiers”.
How not to do movement politics — occupy a public (or semi-public) open space a mile or more away from the target of your ire.
The chauffeurs didn’t even have to make a detour to get their fat-cat bosses to work on time.
Spare me.
The polling data is behind the curve. Barrett has been trending up, was tied 47/47 on Friday, and was actually ahead (within the margin of error) by a point or two in the campaign’s internal poll on Sunday (I trust my source, who must remain anonymous, not that you have any particular reason to trust me). We’ve been canvassing our assess off for the last week, and the weather forecast looks good (good weather means a higher turnout, which often is good for Democrats), so I’m cautiously optimistic. Granted, Walker is under investigation for corruption during his time as Milwaukee County Supervisor, and he’s polling even, which is pretty screwed-up anyway, so your point still stands.
Blast, data are plural; I could use an edit button. :-/
I would be happy to be pleasantly surprised. I can’t remember the last time that happened, but it would be welcome.
Time to calm down. This is not the presidential election. If Walker wins, the overriding factor will be turnout. A small turnout is a Walker victory; a presidential-size turnout is likely a Barrett victory. And let’s remember: Barrett lost in 2010 and some voters are voting against the recall rather than voting for Walker. A second point too is that if Romney could win in Wisconsin, then he’s going to win CO-OH-IA-NV-VA-NC-IN and probably PA-NH & maybe MI-MN. The polling in Wisconsin and elsewhere doesn’t show this happening. The recall isn’t going to have that kind of impact on this race, and even a losing effort could help D’s. It would at least let them see where they need to improve GOTV efforts. In short, don’t worry about the recall. If Wisconsin is really in play, well this race is already over – but remember that we are an evidence-based community, and the evidence points to Obama being ok in Wisconsin. He could win the state & lose the election, and should win the state even if Walker also wins.
W in 2000, and again in 2004?!; the House in 2010?!; more state and local races during the same time frame than my nausea threshold will allow me to recall–What’s going on?! I am both baffled and sickened by our politics.
Aside from the election of Obama 2008–
**which was, of course, historically HUGE; Obama’s election (if not his administration), with the passage of time will come to be regarded as the era defining event, dwarfing most other proximal politics, relegating elections we contemporaries rightly consider to be of monumental importance to historical triviality. So there is some hope for our legacy anyway.
Aside from that election, I am simply confused.
I just don’t “get it.” Is it simply further example of the intentional exploitation of democracy’s weak spots? (We the sheeple following a cynical shepherd). Or is it the unintentional “natural” expression of those democratic weak spots? (We the sheeple simply doing as sheep do, cynical shepherd not needed)
Whatever the “why?” which certainly eludes me, the facts are simply: we consistently regress our society though the vote. I wish we would stop it.
I don’t like the idea of “bellweather” local elections predicting national elections. As someone said above, the American electorate isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer and their memory shows it. They don’t remember much beyond 2 or 3 weeks (and it’s getting shorter with each election cycle). There are a million things that could happen between now and November that would win it for either Obama or Romney. That being said, your general point is taken. Republicans will vote against their self interests over and over again just because they don’t want to vote for the guy in the other party. This means nuts and crooks will keep on getting elected
Three words that explain why I think Mittens Rmoney cannot possibly win – surely? :
He’s Mitt Romney.
Not sure this state election is really going to be a good guide for the presidential one. Still, worrying.
Two words that explain why I fear Romeny may win? : The economy.
If it’s still in a bad way then Obama right or wrong islikely to cop the blame and lose. Odd to think the US president may depedn on whether or not Greece can get its act together ..
A fridn of mine posted this into an email thread we had gaping about this election cycle. I think he’s got an interesting point, generally.
Quoted: