Irrational Obama hate

As the campaign winds down and feeling start running high, people tend to be more unguarded in what they say. We thus witness high levels of irrational hatred of Barack Obama that would be truly a wonder to behold if it were not also scary to see that some people live in an alternate reality where manifestly self-contradictory views can be held in the same mind with complete lack of awareness. [Read more…]

The difference between state and national poll predictions

One of the puzzles of the current presidential election has been the divergence between the national polls (which indicate a close race with the lead fluctuating between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney) and the predictions of the poll aggregators based on state polling which have had Obama showing a fairly steady lead that would result in around 300 electoral votes. [Read more…]

More on polls

In an earlier post yesterday, I mentioned the ‘house effect’ of polls. These are the size of the effects that a given polling outfit produces in favor of one or the other party. They are not necessarily biases in the sense of the polling firm deliberately distorting the results. It is often the result of methodologies that produce different effects such as sampling only likely voters vs registered voters, cell phones vs. landlines, robocalls vs. human calls, weighting by party affiliation, etc. Simon Jackman has an article explaining it in more detail. [Read more…]