Kamala Harris has moved rapidly to consolidate her position as the most plausible person to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, with prominent Democrats all lining up to endorse her candidacy All the people who had been floated as possible alternatives have either ruled out running or have directly endorsed her. The very top leadership of Charles Schumer in the Senate and Hakeem Jeffries in the House of Representatives have not as yet done so (nor has former president Barack Obama) but that may be because they do not want to give the impression that the party is steamrolling the process and not giving the rank and file a chance to voice their preferences. But Nancy Pelosi has done so.
In many ways, this is not unlike the way that the UK selects its prime minister. The party insiders pick the leader of the party who then becomes the prime minister should the party win the majority of seats. In the UK, the party leader only contests their own constituency but that is seen as enough of a mandate to be the prime minister of the whole country while in the US, the nominee, however they are selected, still has to gain the support of voters in the general election.
If Biden had to drop out of the race, he chose the best possible moment to do so to wrong-foot the GOP and it is clear that they did not expect this. If Biden had dropped out much earlier, say before the primaries began, that would have opened the door to a bruising Democratic primary process and given the GOP time to mount a campaign against the eventual winner. If he had dropped out halfway through the primary process, that would have left the party in an awkward position of trying to figure out what to do with the delegates already decided. If he had waited until after the Democratic convention, the party would have had to decide on a nominee without the legitimizing role that the convention provides.
Also if Biden had announced his decision before the GOP convention, that would given them the chance to use that event to attack Harris. Instead they essentially wasted their efforts attacking a candidate who is no longer running. In addition, by withdrawing the very day after the GOP convention ended, Biden big-footed the news cycle, driving all GOP convention chatter out the window and preventing them from getting the bounce that normally attends the event. There are reports that the campaign of serial sex abuser and convicted felon Donald Trump (SSACFT) had been urging its people to counter the recent calls for Biden to withdraw, feeling that he gave them the best chance to win. It is no wonder that SSACFT and his lackeys are now whining all over conservative media that this is all so unfair, that they have wasted so much money attacking Biden, and that this move violates the democratic rights of primary voters.
But all that is becoming increasingly moot since, after holding a conference call, the chairs of all 50 Democratic state organizations have endorsed Harris.
“Following President Biden’s announcement, our members immediately assembled to unite behind the candidate who has a track record of winning tough elections, and who is a proven leader on the issues that matter to Americans: reproductive freedom, gun violence prevention, climate protection, justice reform, and rebuilding the economy,” said Ken Martin, president of the Association of State Democratic Committees, in a statement.
So while regular party members down at the grass roots level will not have a chance to vote for the nominee, Harris’s support is as broad-based as one might expect given the extraordinary circumstances.
The lack of a coherent GOP response can be seen in the calls by JD Vance and speaker Mike Johnson that if Biden felt that he should not run again, that means that he also cannot be president and should also resign that position too. Not only is that a non sequitur (Lyndon Johnson went on to complete his term in 1968 as did Harry Truman before him in 1952) but also bad politics. If Biden resigned, Harris would become president and inherit all the trappings that come with it, making her a more formidable opponent. Sure, she would have to take some time away from campaigning to carry out presidential duties but those are easily handled.
The rapidity with which party members around the country have endorsed Harris suggests that, whatever reservations some may have about her (as do I), there is almost palpable relief that they can rally behind a candidate who has many strengths and can mount a vigorous election campaign.
In an interesting post, commenter flex suggests that this was all carefully choreographed by Biden and the Democratic party well in advance. It is an intriguing possibility but I do not know if I can credit Biden or the Democrats with such a high level of political cunning to plan such a thing or the skill to carry it out successfully. They do not have much of a reputation for Machiavellian strategizing.
Actually a British political party doesn’t have to leave selection of its leader to “party insiders”, though (especially these days) many of them do. When the Labour Party elected Jeremy Corbyn it was through a vote of all party members, likewise with Keir Starmer. The Tories have used a variety of methods to select their excuses for leaders, from votes of the party membership (which resulted in Liz Truss) to the more clandestine party insders getting together to promote their pick (which gave us Rishi Sunak).
This may also be relevant.
Farron Cousins:
“Trump’s Odds Of Winning Election Drop After Convention”
.https://youtube.com/watch?v=uKm8xP5Cx6M
(NB there is a difference between “odds” and “polls”. Odds are more about trackning people’s reactions in the moment, polls are more long-term)
I’m still very concerned (even before this whole thing) about the election but I’m cautiously hopeful. At the very least, Democratic turnout will probably be higher if the views of many Dems is any indication. That alone can make a huge difference, since at least many Dems/allies won’t feel forced to vote, sit out the election or just vote third party anymore. Or they won’t feel embarrassed to explain to others why and who they plan to vote for without feeling like they will get yelled at by everybody. I personally believe Biden is a competent and capable person but we can’t deny the fact that if he did win (that’s a very huge maybe), his problems may just have began. If narrow-mindedness costs us yet another great candidate, I believe we never deserved democracy in the first place. Sorry for the cynicism but that’s just how I feel.
I don’t buy the idea that this was 4D chess either. Not for a lengthy period of time, but if it was becoming apparent in the last week or so, I can definitely see waiting until the days after the RNC to announce it.
But another reason not to have Biden resign now and have Harris become President is that would mean she’d need to immediately nominate a new VP…but they would need to be ratified by a majority of both the Senate and the House. And I can see the House just not ratifying anyone with the hope that the VP position would be left vacant and thus if something DID happen to Harris, then Mike Johnson would become President.
I don’t really get much credit for this idea, nor do I think 4-D chess would really be needed. The idea has been floating around political circles for at least the last two years. The Biden campaign had certainly heard about it, even if it didn’t look like they were interested. Of course the only way it would work is if they feigned disinterest. I submit it should be no surprise that it was on the table, as a possible alternative, in case it looked like it would be a better option (even if I was surprised by the announcement yesterday). And if it was a possible alternative, the timing is obvious too. Right after the RNC would be the most damaging time for the republicans and would still give time for the Democratic party to promote their candidate.
I personally thought we had passed the best time for that option, and I suspect many other people, including the republican operatives, did too. I would have pulled the trigger too soon, and the continued stubbornness of Biden insisting he would run made me think it was off the table. But on reflection, I think the timing was just about perfect.
Finally, the team Biden has put together doesn’t toot their horn all that much, but they do get things done. In fact, in the past four years they have rarely announced something as a trial balloon to get public opinion before acting on it. Generally the public hears something the Biden White House does when it’s ready to launch and everyone is on board with it, or it’s already a done deal. If there is one criticism of the Biden White House which I think they deserve is that they play their cards too close to their chest. We don’t hear about the policy to slow down military aid deliveries to Israel until Nosferatu-Netanyahu complains about it, even thought it had been going on for months. Even now it’s more of a “We didn’t really mean to do that, ‘wink-wink’.”
It’s a nice change from the Trump White House where the leaks could fill the reservoirs of Mexico City.
Farron Cousins again:
“Donald Trump Is Losing Tremendous Amounts Of Support From A Group He Needs…”
.https://youtube.com/watch?v=eUHVZJ6cxik
It turns out it is a bad idea to alienate 51% of the population. And getting JD Vance as future VP was the worst thing Tr*mp could have done. Like the tories, stupidity will be the undoing of the Republicans.
It turns out Trump has not changed one bit, so basically, apart from the incoming cohort (you know, girls into voting age women) whatever alienation he’s providing now he has been providing since 2015.
(You know, grab’em)
[Farron Cousins is just earning a living, and fair enought, but to get so excited about his opinions as if they were particularly authoritative is a bit naive]
PS “Tr*mp”
Heh. Taboo, is it?
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So, in the spirit of kindness: what with the AIs and the spiders and the trawling, it’s all about associations.
Write nice, fawning things about Tr*mp (heh) and the engines make the associations.
Write aggrieved, critical things about Trump (heh) and the engines make the associations.
(Outcomes are different, but the process is the same)
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Anyway. Not a magic word.
Your lack of imagination is remarkable.
(What if he whipped out his wang at an interview, and started stroking it?)
John Morales, I pity Farron Cousins because he lives in Florida, and I appreciate his updates on deSantis and other horrible persons down there. He is also participating in a podcast discussing legal matters pertaining to politics and manage to pull it off without making me fall asleep, indicating a degree of skill.
.
John Morales @ 10 🥶
If he gets frontal lobe dementia this is a perfectly possible scenario.
Completely implausible in my view. If Biden wasn’t really reluctant to go and angry at those telling him he should, and has (presumably) been faking his cognitive problems, he has a brilliant future as an actor. Moreover, the three weeks between the debate fiasco and the withdrawal caused considerable and often bitter conflict among rank and file party members and supporters, many of whom were still voicing their despair and resentment at Biden being “forced out”, and remaining convinced that there was nothing wrong with him mentally, as late as yesterday (e.g. on Daily Kos, or for that matter like Bekenstein Bound here). Meanwhile, Harris has started taking the fight to Trump in a way it is obvious Biden could not have done.
@birger #11
“gets”?