There can be no doubt that serial sex abuser Donald Trump (SSAT) is an awful person and that there are people who once voted for him who are quite disgusted now. The real question is how many such people there are and whether they will eventually end up voting for him anyway, will vote for Biden, will not vote at all, or will vote for a third party candidate.
The conventional wisdom is that those who have voted for SSAT in the past, especially in 2020 when no reasonable person could have had any doubt about how awful he was, had drunk so much of the Kool-Aid that they would go back to him. Jordan Klepper’s interviews with some supporters of Nikki Haley seem to support that gloomy view. There were those who spoke of SSAT in the harshest possible terms, even calling him an existential threat to democracy. But when Klepper pushed them to state what they would do if finally faced with the choice of voting for Joe Biden or SSAT, they hemmed and hawed before finally saying that they would vote for SSAT. So much for these people being ‘never Trumpers’.
The cognitive dissonance is strong in these people.
On the other hand, the Republican Accountability PAC has collected testimonials from people who had previously voted for SSAT even in 2020 who say they are determined not to vote for him this time around, and their testimonials are going to be used in an ad campaign to be launched soon, similar to what was done in 2020.
That campaign proved to be among the most effective advertising of the election cycle. (I say this not just because I was part of the effort, but because I think it’s true.)
Now Republican Accountability PAC has announced a $50 million campaign for 2024, starting off with more than 100 new, first-person video testimonials of former Trump voters. These are not just former Republican voters, but are former Trump voters. And they explain in their own words, usually in videos recorded on their own cell phones, why they can’t support Trump in 2024.
Take a look at some of these testimonials at rvat.org, which will be featured in ads on TV, radio, billboards, and digital media in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They’re a remarkable watch: Americans from very different backgrounds giving different reasons, in their own voices—some of them pensive, some solemn, some emotional—for why we can’t risk another term of Donald Trump.
These contrasting views presented by Klepper and the Republican Accountability PAC are all anecdotal. It is still early days and much can change in the next seven months and we will not know until much closer to the election how significant each group is going to be.
It seems to me that there are a lot of people who are embarrassed to have supported Trump the first time. Rather than not supporting Trump the second time, they will simply lie and say “I didn’t vote” or whatever. I actually knew several white suburban women who did that in 2016.
With the Jordan Klepper interviews, he gave the options of Trump vs. Biden. But really the options are Trump vs. Biden vs. Don’t Vote. One of the people did explicitly say they would still vote, but the others may not thought they had that option in the interview.
The first person interviewed said they voted Trump 2016, but not 2020. His response to Trump vs Biden was not shown, but I’d bet he’s not voting Trump again this year.
I’ve seen one of the ads. It was compelling. I still reserve the right to stay mad at people who voted for him the first time, since that whole era was one of the most nerve-wracking and traumatic periods of my life. I have no patience for those who voted for him again in 2020, but I’m not sure how to feel about those who have finally changed their minds, or come to their senses, or whatever.
I sometimes think of that entire time period as white people succumbing to some type of fever or flu, some of which has now passed, but will they remember or even acknowledge that they even got sick?
In my experience, repubs are much better at “falling in line” than democrats. Maybe something to do with their adherence to social hierarchies and slavishly following a strongman. I watched The Godfather for the first time recently (I’m 57). The frequent cutaways from the wedding celebration to those seeking Godfather’s favor in his office made quite an impression.
I read that 40% of those who supported Nikki Haley stated they would never vote for Trump.
In the most recent primary in a swing state Haley got 13% despite having pulled out if the race! That is bad news for SSAT.
Given that Trump increased the raw number of votes he got in 2020 (= some people who didnt vote for him looked at what he did in those 4 years , and were impressed by what they saw!) and that atleast some set of people are going to be disillusioned by Biden for whatever reason (mainly prices are high and companies are making their lives miserable) , the never trumpers are mostly not going to matter , even if they actually dont vote for Trump.
Im hoping for an effective , no holds barred campaign from the Democrats -- which means that America is doomed .
Plenty of Republicans despise SSAT. Plenty of Democrats despise Biden too. But the stupid US political system means that it will be voting against, not voting for, that carries the day. I may loathe Biden, and I could easily claim to a reporter that I would never vote for him, but if I were a US citizen, he would have me over a barrel: I would vote for pretty much anyone standing against SSAT. Even not voting would be a bridge way too far.
And I think that this situation helps SSAT more than Biden. I think many disenchanted Democrats are likely to follow their “principles” and not vote at all, whereas I think a lot of the interviewed “Never Trumpers” will put aside their feelings for SSAT and vote against Biden when the time comes.
I have never understood those who say they won’t vote.
But if they stir their stumps this time and cast their vote for Trump, I think there’s a good chance they won’t have to again.
At least, not within their lifetime.
Well, I did wait.
“How committed are so-called ‘Never Trumpers’ to not vote for him?”
Not at all: that’s to what ‘so-called’ refers.
An actual Never Trumper, of course, is fully committed lest they be misnamed.
(I know, I know… like a double negative, if it’s somehow seen as an intensifier, in it goes and never mind the connotations or the semantics)
@ ^
Thanks Captain Hyperliteral. The rest of us were confused how someone who never votes for Trump could be a person who votes for Trump. But fortunately we’ve got you to explain it for us. Monikers may be based on expressed intent and not actual behaviour -- who knew?! I mean apart from everyone but you.
It’s like he almost gets the question but then fumbles it at the end.
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Heh. You can’t possibly claim I am wrong, so you claim I am merely otiose.
Basically, you can’t dispute me.
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Holms, you do amuse. Best you have, I know.