The UK parliament returned to session today with prime minister Boris Johnson facing sharp questioning over what he is doing with Brexit. One former Conservative cabinet minister has crossed over to the Liberal Democrats, meaning that Johnson has lost his slim one-vote majority, though given the fluidity of the shifting alliances, whether that means anything significant is not clear. Complicating matters is that there are some people in the opposition who are not opposed to a no-deal Brexit while there are other Conservative MPs who say they are opposed to it, making the situation hard to read. Adding to the chaos is that Johnson says he is making progress on Brexit talks while EU leaders say that the talks are going nowhere. There is also confusion on whether Johnson will call for a general election on October 14, before the Brexit deadline of October 31. An election would be a gamble for all sides, since it is hard to read the mood of the electorate on this issue.
Parliament will vote later today on a motion known as Standing Order #24 (SO24), a rarely-used emergency measure that enables backbenchers to bring forward a bill, and if passed, the opposition is expected to propose a bill that prohibits the no-deal Brexit that Johnson seems to be maneuvering towards. Johnson has warned that any Conservative MP who votes against him or even abstains today will be ‘stripped of the whip’, which is parliamentary-speak meaning that they will not be eligible to be the party’s candidate in the next election. The debate on SO24 will end at 10:00 pm UK time and the vote is expected to begin at around 10:30 pm UK time.
[UPDATE: The motion was carried (i.e., Johnson lost) by a margin of 328 to 301. More than a dozen Conservative MPs voted against him. It looks like Johnson will call for an October general election.]
Of course, the Trump administration has to stick its nose into this. A news report today said that US vice-president Mike Pence met with the Irish taoiseach (the Irish name for the parliamentary leader) Leo Varadkar and pushed for Brexit, saying that the US would make a trade deal with the UK once they leave the EU. Of course, once the UK leaves the EU, they will be at the mercy of the US in any negotiations and you can be sure that any deal that is reached will be at the expense of the people of the UK and to the advantage of US businesses.
But Varadkar has pushed back sharply, saying that Brexit would be deeply divisive and risks the peace that has been attained between Ireland and Northern Ireland as a result of the open borders. EU sources says that Johnson has not offered any concrete alternative plan for Brexit and seems to have even softened his opposition to the creation of a hard border in Ireland, once considered a non-negotiable proposition. Johnson has said that he would meet next week with Varadkar, even though the latter has said that Ireland is not going to negotiate by itself with the UK over the issue of the backstop since that is a matter for all the 27 EU nations.
So there we are.
@Mano
21 Tory MPs voted agaimst the government -- all will now apparently lose the Tory whip (i.e. be expelled from the party).
Johnson can’t call an election on his own. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act requires a 2/3 majority in the Commons to call a general election outside of the fixed terms. In other words, the government can’t call an election unless the Labour party votes for it, and they won’t vote for it until a No Deal Brexit has been ruled out. Johnson’s boxed himself into a corner on this one.
Among the Tory MPs voting against the governmemt: Ken Clarke, Father of the House (longest serving MP, former Chancellor and Home Secretary), Nicholas Soames (Winston Churchill’s grandson), Phil Hammond (previous Chancellor) Oliver Letwin (former Chancellor), Dominic Grieve (previous Attorney General) Rory Stewart, David Gauke, Justine Greening (all Cabinet Ministers in Theresa May’s government)
Thanks, I was wondering what “stripped of the whip” meant.
So the general election will finally come to pass, but still nothing on Brexit is assured. There is speculation that once parliament has approved an election to take place, AB de PJ will move the election date past October 31, achieving a no-deal Brexit coup regardless of parliament’s will. I have heard that as PM he has the power to unilaterally move the date, although I don’t know what’s involved.
His spokesman has vigorously denied that AB de PJ would do it, but if it were Chump’s spokesman saying it, or even Chump himself, would you believe them? But even if parliament don’t believe, I don’t know if there is anything they can do to prevent it.
@ file thirteen
Johnson can’t call an election without a 2/3 majority in the House of Commons. He can’t call an election unless Labour votes for it. Labour won’t vote for it unless the Benn bill to prevent No Deal is passed.
What the government can do is call for a Confidence Motion (“I have no confidence in my government.””Neither does anyone else, Boris”) -- but he really doesn’t want to do that. If they lose the confidence motion (which is certain), then MPs have 14 days to form a new government (otherwise there is an election). Those MPs with a reasonably firm grip on reality (i.e. everyone not currently in the Conservative Party or the DUP) would be able to agree a short-term government of national unity in order to prevent a No Deal Brexit, possibly legislate for a second referendum, and call an election at a time of their choosing. Johnson has effectively finished off his own government almost before it began. (well… Dominic Cummings has, if we’re being honest)
So far as dirty tricks go, the Tory peers in the House of Lords are going to try to (essentially) filibuster the bill by tabling an absurd number of amendments, all of which would need to be discussed. Opposition peers have made it clear that they will keep sitting throught the night, through the weekend if need be. It’s very unclear if Parliament can be prorogued while a House is in session -- there’s not a consensus, but more experts seem to think that it can’t than that it can.
In the meantime, the government is in limbo -- they are a minority and can expect to lose anything that gets put to a vote.
I’ve also heard a rumour that the government (again, Dominic Cummings -- Johnson’s chief advisor -- in honesty) has been discussing not sending the bill for Royal Assent when it passes. That would be a constitutional crisis of the first order, and I seriously doubt Johnson could keep his remaining MPs together if he tried to pull that.
Meanwhile, there are 3 ongoing legal cases (in London, Edinburgh and Belfast) to prevent the prorogation of parliament.
We live in interesting times. Unfortunately.
Two of the 7 or 8 major powers in the world (dare I say the two biggest in the West?) are essentially without a ‘functional’ government. Is this the beginning of a worldwide ‘anarchic’ period or is it the beginning of WWIII? Anyone got a crystal ball?
@mastmaker
The UK’s nowhere near being the second biggest power in the West, however you want to conceptualise that. At best, it’s 3rd in terms of EU nations.
Perhaps, but probably not… from the Grauniad’s live NKofE blog† (written before the SO24 vote in the commons):
† NKofE — N.Korea of Europe. Both N.Korea (Asia) and teh “U”K are run by an nuclear-armed paranoid authoritarian cabal with no interest in the welfare of the population outside a small group of kleptomaniacs.
@6/@7, Arguably, three of the top 7/8 are without an functional government — there’s also Italy, albeit a new (but probably unstable) government is now forming…
@unitooo #4
AB de PJ has stated that even if Benn passes, he would refuse to ask the EU for an extension even though legally bound to do so (on October 19th). But I guess if that happened, a no-confidence vote would follow, and an interim government would be formed as you described; then the extension could be requested. Not a lot of time left for all that to happen though! Talk about being on the brink of disaster!!
At the very least they should put the Brexit agreement itself to a referendum instead of just crashing out.
This item at least is easy to parse: Johnson is lying.
unit000, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wealth
Addendum/correction to my @8, where I pointed out the lords filibustering the Benn bill (which prevents a no-deal brexit) probably won’t work because the rebel alliance is planning to introduce a measure to ensure a vote on the Benn bill in a timely manner, and that measure is likely to pass. However, overlooked is the motion to prevent a Benn bill filibuster can itself be filibustered, and that seems to be the plan (from the current Grauniad blog):
@ John Morales
Point taken, though I’d suggest that there’s more to power than wealth alone. It’s pretty difficult to quantify though.
An aside on “major power”, that reminds me of a point I started making before the last French presidential election (Marcon vs nazi Le Pen): That France was the only nuclear-armed country not under the control of an authoritarian government (then, and still now). All the orders were (then, and still are now): US (hair furor), UK (then May, now Johnson), Israel (Netanyahu), India (Modi), Pakistan, Big China, and Russia.
[unit000 @15, impressive response. I take you more seriously, thereby]